特朗普應(yīng)仿效里根的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策

“Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter,” US vice-president Dick Cheney told Paul O’Neill in 2002, when the Treasury Secretary expressed doubts about a round of tax cuts. Donald Trump appears set to test whether the proof still holds — if it ever did.

“里根證明了赤字并不重要，”時(shí)任美國(guó)副總統(tǒng)迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)在2002年告訴財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)保羅•奧尼爾(Paul O'Neill)，當(dāng)時(shí)后者對(duì)新一輪減稅提出質(zhì)疑。唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎要試驗(yàn)這一點(diǎn)是否仍然成立——如果它曾經(jīng)成立過的話。

His victory has already prompted nostalgic references to Ronald Reagan — whose election in 1980 was greeted with similar scepticism. The comparison is flawed by big changes in the US and global economies in the intervening 36 years. But if there is one area where Mr Trump’s approach most resembles that of his predecessor, it is fiscal plans likely to lead to a huge rise in the US deficit.

特朗普的勝利已引起了人們懷舊地把他與羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)相提并論，里根在1980年當(dāng)選之初也曾受到類似懷疑。這36年間美國(guó)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的巨大變化，意味著這種對(duì)比是有缺陷的。但如果說特朗普有一個(gè)最接近他的前任的地方，那就是他的財(cái)政計(jì)劃很可能導(dǎo)致美國(guó)財(cái)政赤字飆升。

Mr Trump’s comments on the campaign trail simply do not translate into a coherent economic plan. His angry rhetoric on trade and hostility to the Fed’s stimulus policies are consistent with a wide range of policies, some alarming and some much less so.

特朗普在競(jìng)選過程中發(fā)表的言論，根本不能構(gòu)成一個(gè)連貫的經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃。他對(duì)貿(mào)易的滿腔怒火和對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)刺激政策的敵意，與包羅萬象的一系列政策相容，其中一些令人驚恐，另一些沒那么嚇人。

He has, however, made concrete and repeated commitments to tax cuts, on both personal income and corporate profits. He has also promised higher defence spending and a huge burst of investment in infrastructure, to “rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals”.

然而，他已多次對(duì)減稅(涵蓋個(gè)人所得和企業(yè)利潤(rùn)兩方面)作出具體承諾。同時(shí)他還承諾增加國(guó)防支出和大舉投資基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，以“重建我們的公路、橋梁、隧道、機(jī)場(chǎng)、學(xué)校、醫(yī)院。”

He asserts his economic plan will put millions into work and double the US growth rate. That is questionable, especially given indications that the US economy is now close to full employment. The consequences for US public finances are, by contrast, incontrovertible. Mr Trump’s unfunded tax cuts could add more than $5tn to the US federal debt by 2026, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

他斷言自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃將讓數(shù)百萬人獲得工作，并使美國(guó)的增長(zhǎng)率翻倍。這是有問題的，尤其是在跡象表明美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已接近充分就業(yè)的情況下。相比之下，對(duì)美國(guó)公共財(cái)政帶來的后果是不容質(zhì)疑的。據(jù)美國(guó)盡責(zé)聯(lián)邦預(yù)算委員會(huì)(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)估算，至2026年，特朗普提出的沒有資金著落的減稅計(jì)劃可能新增逾5萬億美元美國(guó)聯(lián)邦債務(wù)。

There is a strong case for a shift in the balance of monetary and fiscal stimulus, with fiscal measures — well-targeted spending on infrastructure in particular — taking more of the strain. Indeed, Hillary Clinton might have proposed something similar. But if the shift appeared likely to result in a large increase in the US deficit, it would bring higher inflation and a rise in borrowing costs in its train. This, in turn, has implications for monetary policy.

有很好的理由對(duì)貨幣和財(cái)政刺激的平衡作出改變，讓財(cái)政措施——特別是有針對(duì)性的基建支出——肩負(fù)更大重?fù)?dān)。的確，希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)或許也會(huì)提出類似建議。但如果這種改變貌似會(huì)大幅推高美國(guó)財(cái)政赤字，那么它將帶來更高的通脹以及借款成本增加，進(jìn)而對(duì)貨幣政策造成影響。

The obvious response would be for the Federal Reserve to adopt a tighter stance. Indeed, if Mr Trump dislikes the post-crisis era of ultra-low interest rates, putting his fiscal plans into practice would hasten the process of policy “normalisation” at the Fed, without meddling in the bank’s affairs directly.

明顯的回應(yīng)是，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將采取偏緊的政策姿態(tài)。的確，如果特朗普不喜歡超低利率的后危機(jī)時(shí)代，實(shí)施他的財(cái)政計(jì)劃將加快美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策“正?；?rdquo;進(jìn)程，而無需直接干預(yù)美國(guó)央行的事務(wù)。

This combination of looser fiscal policy and a tighter monetary stance is not compatible with reaching his growth target in any sustainable way. And it would be disastrous to replace Janet Yellen, Fed chair, when her current term expires, with another compliant enough to take his target seriously.

更寬松的財(cái)政政策和更緊縮的貨幣政策這一組合，與以任何可持續(xù)方式達(dá)到特朗普的增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)不相容。而在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)主席耶倫任期結(jié)束后撤換她，任命一個(gè)聽話的、能認(rèn)真對(duì)待特朗普的目標(biāo)的人接替，將是一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難。

Moreover, far better than worsening the US long-term fiscal position with permanent tax cuts would be for Mr Trump to reframe his proposals into a broadly revenue-neutral tax reform package. This is what President Reagan advanced in his second term.

此外，與其用永久性減稅惡化美國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期財(cái)政狀況，對(duì)特朗普而言好得多的做法是把他的提議重新框定為一個(gè)大體上財(cái)政收入中性的稅改方案，這正是里根在第二任期里推行的事情。

Mr Trump’s plans on personal taxation are indefensible. They would bring very modest benefits to the middle income voters he claims to represent, and large gains to the richest. There is, however, a good case for cutting the rate of corporation tax to a level that is more competitive internationally. But this should be accompanied by reforms to broaden the tax base, eliminate tax loopholes, and encourage companies to repatriate the estimated $1tn to $3tn they hold stockpiled abroad.

特朗普針對(duì)個(gè)人所得的減稅計(jì)劃是站不住腳的。這些計(jì)劃給他聲稱代表的中等收入選民帶來的福利非常有限，而給最富裕的人帶來巨大收益。不過，有很好的理由將公司稅率降低到更具國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的水平。但這一舉措應(yīng)該伴隨一些改革，以擴(kuò)大稅基，封堵稅收漏洞，鼓勵(lì)企業(yè)將囤積在海外、據(jù)估計(jì)有1萬億美元到3萬億美元的資金匯回國(guó)內(nèi)。

Of course, much will depend on how Mr Trump’s plans are viewed by the Republicans who will control Congress, and on his choice of Treasury Secretary. Here, his instinct may be to appoint a weak candidate and run economic policy from the White House. This would be a mistake. The new president needs a strong cabinet that can command the respect of markets and international interlocutors.

當(dāng)然，很多事情將取決于控制國(guó)會(huì)的共和黨人如何看待特朗普的計(jì)劃，以及特朗普的財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)人選。特朗普的本能可能是任命一個(gè)較為弱勢(shì)的財(cái)長(zhǎng)，以便由白宮決定經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。這將是一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤。這位新總統(tǒng)需要一個(gè)能夠贏得市場(chǎng)和國(guó)際對(duì)話者尊敬的強(qiáng)大內(nèi)閣。

Despite the huge uncertainties unleashed by Mr Trump’s victory, there is a broad set of measures including tax reform, infrastructure investment and a greater emphasis on fiscal stimulus that could add up to a coherent — if not ideal — economic policy. Such measures have implications for the rest of the world, especially emerging markets vulnerable to a rise in US borrowing costs. But it could be compatible with continued growth in the world’s most important economy. As with so much of what Mr Trump does, the worry is that his urge to excess will win out over conciliation.

盡管特朗普的勝利帶來了巨大的不確定性，但稅改、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資和更強(qiáng)調(diào)財(cái)政刺激等一整套措施有可能構(gòu)成一套連貫(如果不算理想)的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。這些舉措會(huì)對(duì)世界其他地方產(chǎn)生影響，尤其是容易受美國(guó)借款成本上升影響的新興市場(chǎng)。但這套經(jīng)濟(jì)政策有可能與世界上最重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)體保持增長(zhǎng)相容。就如特朗普的很多所作所為一樣，擔(dān)憂在于他做事過頭的沖動(dòng)將壓倒理性妥協(xié)。