FT社評：杜特爾特在中美間的危險博弈

Rodrigo Duterte, the flamboyant president of the Philippines, has spent this week in Beijing executing a dramatic pivot away from the US, his country’s closest ally, and into the arms of the rising superpower, China.

行事高調的菲律賓總統(tǒng)羅德里戈•杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)利用本周對北京的訪問，上演了一場脫離該國最親密的盟友美國、轉投崛起中的超級大國中國懷抱的大戲。

During his four-day trip, his first to a country outside the Asean bloc since becoming president in June, he said it was time to “say goodbye” to the US and claimed that “only China [could] help” the Philippines. If followed to their logical conclusion, his words would represent the most significant realignment of geopolitical power in the region since the cold war.

這是杜特爾特自6月就任總統(tǒng)以來首次訪問東盟(ASEAN)以外的國家，在為期四天的訪華行程中，他表示，是時候對美國“說再見了”，并宣稱“只有中國(能夠)幫助”菲律賓。從遵循他此番言論的邏輯推導出的結論來看，此番言論將代表著冷戰(zhàn)結束以來亞太地區(qū)地緣政治力量最重大的一次調整。

In spite of his uncompromising language, Mr Duterte may well in fact be playing the tides between the US and China rather than reversing the Philippines’ fundamental strategic posture. Nonetheless, he should recognise that this is a highly dangerous endeavour, not only for his country but also for the broader region.

盡管言辭堅定，但實際上，杜特爾特很可能只是在美中之間見風使舵，而非要徹底轉變菲律賓的根本戰(zhàn)略立場。盡管如此，他應該認識到，這是一種高度危險的嘗試——不僅對菲律賓，對整個地區(qū)而言也是如此。

Mr Duterte is bashing Washington to ingratiate himself with Beijing, but his rhetoric risks alienating both of the world’s biggest powers. Manila appears to be betting that the US will not abandon one of its closest regional allies just because of the colourful insults Mr Duterte has directed at Barack Obama.

杜特爾特痛批華盛頓來討好北京，但他的話有可能同時疏遠這兩個世界頭號大國。馬尼拉似乎賭的是美國不會僅僅因杜特爾特對巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)出言不遜就放棄其關系最密切一個地區(qū)盟國。

But in referring to the US president as the “son of a whore”, Mr Duterte reveals a worrying lack of finesse that may serve him ill if US-China tension in the region ramps up. In addition, Washington may be less than willing in the future to look past Mr Duterte’s more substantive threats, such as pledging to cancel the joint military exercises that form a key part of the US military presence in the region.

但杜特爾特稱美國總統(tǒng)是“婊子養(yǎng)的”言論，暴露出他嚴重缺乏手腕，這一點可能會讓他吃苦頭——如果美中在亞太地區(qū)的緊張關系加劇的話。此外，未來華盛頓可能不會愿意無視杜特爾特發(fā)出的更實質性的威脅，如誓言取消與美國的聯合軍事演習，而這些軍演正是美國在亞太地區(qū)軍事存在的關鍵部分。

On China’s side of the equation, Mr Duterte is walking an even trickier path. If Manila is hoping for more Chinese trade and investment as a reward for tilting towards Beijing’s strategic position in the disputed South China Sea, this may pay off to some extent in the short term. There is ample evidence of China rewarding regional allies, such as Cambodia, that support it in political disputes.

就中國這一頭而言，杜特爾特走的是一條更難把握的道路。如果馬尼拉希望用在南中國海爭端中向北京的戰(zhàn)略立場傾斜，來換取中國更多的貿易和投資，短期內或將有一定的效果。大量證據顯示，中國會對在政治爭端中對支持自己的地區(qū)盟友(如柬埔寨)給予回報。

But Beijing sees the South China Sea as a binary issue; it regards the 41 disputed islands and land features as its own territory and it plans to take all of them back. Thus, emollient words are unlikely to satisfy China for long. Manila risks falling prey to a diplomatic dynamic in which China exacts the surrender of territorial claims as downpayments for investment and trade pledges. Such an outcome could quickly pall, eroding Mr Duterte’s popularity at home and the tough guy image he has burnished through a ruthless domestic crackdown on drugs.

但北京方面認為南中國海是一個二元問題，它將41個爭議性島嶼及地物視作自己的領土，并計劃全部收回。因此安撫性的話不太可能長久令中國滿意。馬尼拉有可能成為這一外交事態(tài)的犧牲品，即中國會要求其以放棄領土主張作為投資和貿易承諾的定金。這樣的結果可能會迅速失去吸引力，損害杜特爾特在國內的人氣，以及他通過在國內無情鎮(zhèn)壓毒品而提升的硬漢形象。

What is more, any territorial concessions by Mr Duterte that run counter to the ruling of an international tribunal this year would undermine the rule of law in the region and potentially embolden Beijing. The tribunal found that China lacked a “legal basis” to multiple claims in the South China Sea.

此外，杜特爾特作出的任何領土讓步如違反國際仲裁庭今年作出的裁決，都將破壞該地區(qū)的法治，并可能為北京壯膽。該仲裁庭認為中國對南中國海的多項主張缺乏“法律依據”。

Mr Duterte is not the only one who needs to engage in careful reflection. Washington too should recognise that it is partly responsible for Manila’s flirtation with China. Mr Obama’s rebalancing towards Asia has been halfhearted, and the US has taken the loyalty of countries such as the Philippines for granted. It needs to show greater commitment to its regional friends.

杜特爾特不是唯一需要仔細思考的人。華盛頓方面也該認識到它對馬尼拉與中國之間的互動負有部分責任。奧巴馬的轉向亞洲戰(zhàn)略一直實施得不溫不火，美國也一直將菲律賓等國的忠誠視為理所當然的事情。美國需要展現出維系與亞太地區(qū)盟友之間友情的更大決心。

For Mr Duterte, it is not too late to reverse course on his rash excursion into diplomatic adventurism. He should make it clear to the Americans that he has no intention of abandoning their alliance. Setting the US and China against one another over such an incendiary issue as the South China Sea is foolhardy. The Philippines leader should see this before it is too late.

對杜特爾特來說，現在從他草率涉足的外交冒險主義這條路上掉頭還不算太晚。他應該向美國人表明自己不打算放棄他們的聯盟。在南中國海這樣一個一點就著的問題上挑撥美中兩國互相對立是愚蠢的。菲律賓領導人應及時看清這一點，以免追悔莫及。