FT社評(píng)：英鎊給英國(guó)首相的教訓(xùn)

In the confines of the Conservative party conference, Theresa May’s call “to change the direction of our nation” was greeted with rapturous applause. In the outside world, the vision of post-Brexit Britain that the prime minister went on to describe may have pleased her target audience. But it drew a tough response from European leaders, dismayed the City of London and appalled much of the wider world.

在保守黨會(huì)議內(nèi)部，特里薩•梅(Theresa May)“改變我們國(guó)家的方向”的呼吁被報(bào)以熱烈的掌聲。在外界，這位英國(guó)首相接下來(lái)描述的退歐后的英國(guó)的前景或許也取悅了她的目標(biāo)受眾。但這引起了歐洲各國(guó)領(lǐng)袖的強(qiáng)硬反應(yīng)，讓倫敦金融城(City of London)不開心，也震驚了外界的大多數(shù)人。

This was not primarily about the substance of her proposals, although these imply a clean break with the single market. It was because her rhetoric left the impression that Britain’s political culture is changing in more profound and troubling ways.

這主要不是因?yàn)樗嶙h的內(nèi)容(盡管這些提議暗示與單一市場(chǎng)干凈利落地分手)，而是因?yàn)樗难赞o給人留下了這樣一種印象：英國(guó)的政治文化正以更深刻和更令人不安的方式發(fā)生改變。

Mrs May has long made it clear she would prioritise controls on immigration over access to EU markets. This week, she gave further clarity, setting a date to trigger formal exit talks and stating that the UK will not remain under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. These criteria for Brexit, which effectively rule out remaining in the single market, may be unwelcome to many in business but they are not unexpected. More telling was her dismissal of liberal-minded “international elites”, coupled with a proposal to make companies publish a tally of foreign employees in order to “flush out” any failing to recruit locally.

梅長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直明確表示，將把控制移民放在比歐盟市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入更優(yōu)先的位置。本周，她進(jìn)一步明確立場(chǎng)，設(shè)定了啟動(dòng)正式退歐談判的日期，并聲明英國(guó)將不會(huì)繼續(xù)受歐洲法院(European Court of Justice)的司法管轄。這些英國(guó)退歐的原則將事實(shí)上排除英國(guó)留在單一市場(chǎng)的可能性，它們或許不受許多商界人士的歡迎，但并不出人意料。更能說(shuō)明問(wèn)題的是她對(duì)自由主義“國(guó)際精英”的不歡迎，外加一項(xiàng)要求企業(yè)公布外籍員工數(shù)量(以“驅(qū)除”任何未能本地雇傭人才的行為)的提議。

This language is dangerous: it panders to xenophobia and it has raised questions — from Spain to Sri Lanka — over her commitment to Britain’s long tradition of tolerance and openness. It has also exposed the tension between the government’s professed commitment to open, globalised markets and its instinct to play to the gallery by excoriating foreigners — even those who pay to study here or work for the National Health Service. Given the uncertainties that remain over Britain’s intentions for Brexit, let alone what it will prove able to negotiate, this is playing with fire.

這種言語(yǔ)很危險(xiǎn)：它迎合了仇外心理，也在從西班牙到斯里蘭卡的許多地方引發(fā)了質(zhì)疑——針對(duì)她是否還堅(jiān)守英國(guó)寬容和開放的長(zhǎng)期傳統(tǒng)。這也暴露出表面說(shuō)辭與本能傾向的矛盾——政府表面上宣稱堅(jiān)持支持開放和全球化的市場(chǎng)，卻本能地想要通過(guò)指責(zé)外國(guó)人(哪怕是那些花錢在這里念書或者為英國(guó)國(guó)家醫(yī)療服務(wù)體系(NHS)工作的人)來(lái)取悅大眾?？紤]到圍繞著對(duì)英國(guó)退歐打算的不確定性，也不清楚英國(guó)到底能談成什么樣的條件，這是在玩火。

The reaction in financial markets has been punishing. The pound’s plunge early yesterday remains unexplained and may be no more than an algo misfiring. Yet even after recovering much of the ground, sterling remains at its lowest level in more than three decades. This represents a real hit to UK living standards, with little evidence as yet of an offsetting boost to exports.

金融市場(chǎng)的反應(yīng)一直是嚴(yán)厲的。昨天早間英鎊的暴跌依然無(wú)法解釋，也許這不過(guò)是一次算法的誤射。不過(guò)，即使在收復(fù)大部分失地之后，英鎊匯率依然處于逾三十年來(lái)的最低水平。這意味著對(duì)英國(guó)生活水準(zhǔn)的一次真正打擊，卻迄今沒有證據(jù)顯示這對(duì)出口有任何補(bǔ)償性提振。

Moreover, there are now signs of disquiet in bond markets: the yield on 10-year gilts, at record lows since the referendum, climbed this week. This was partly a reflection of Mrs May’s ill-judged comments on monetary policy, which her aides later downplayed. As Chancellor Philip Hammond says, no decisions on the terms of Brexit have been taken. He is a commonsense internationalist and should be heard.

此外，目前債券市場(chǎng)也出現(xiàn)了躁動(dòng)的跡象：英國(guó)十年期國(guó)債的收益率自退歐公投以來(lái)一直處于創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)，本周則出現(xiàn)了攀升。這在一定程度上是對(duì)梅欠考慮的貨幣政策言論(她的助手隨后為這些言論打了圓場(chǎng))的反應(yīng)。正如財(cái)相菲利普•哈蒙德(Philip Hammond)所說(shuō)，有關(guān)英國(guó)退歐條款仍未達(dá)成任何決定。他是位具有常識(shí)的國(guó)際主義者，他的意見是應(yīng)該聽取的。

Mrs May is entitled to address the concerns of her core supporters. Indeed, she is right to address the inequalities and divisions in UK society that helped to fuel the Brexit vote, especially the urgent need for young, working class people to receive the training they need to advance.

梅有權(quán)應(yīng)對(duì)其核心支持者的種種顧慮。事實(shí)上，她應(yīng)對(duì)英國(guó)社會(huì)中的不平等和分裂、尤其是年輕勞動(dòng)階層獲得自我提升所需的培訓(xùn)的迫切需要，是正確的。正是這種不平等和分裂，幫助促成了英國(guó)退歐公投的結(jié)果。

However, language matters. The prime minister may not mind alienating metropolitan liberals but she should be wary of antagonising potential and real allies abroad. Whatever one makes of her social agenda, investors are unconvinced that her tactics will result in a good deal for Britain.

然而，措辭十分重要。這位首相也許不介意疏遠(yuǎn)大都市的自由派，不過(guò)她應(yīng)小心不要讓海外的潛在盟友和真正盟友與英國(guó)對(duì)立起來(lái)。不論人們對(duì)她的社會(huì)議程看法如何，投資者都不相信她的策略會(huì)為英國(guó)帶來(lái)一樁有利的協(xié)議。

The prime minister has received a hard lesson. She needs to be careful about attacking business and give a stronger signal of her resolve to defend the interests of the economy, especially the City, given its vital contribution to the public finances. Mrs May will not be able to right the injustices she sees in British society unless she has the financial means to do so.

梅已得到了慘痛教訓(xùn)。她必須對(duì)抨擊商界十分小心，還需要釋放關(guān)于一個(gè)更強(qiáng)烈的信號(hào)，顯示她捍衛(wèi)英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)(尤其是倫敦金融城——考慮到它對(duì)公共財(cái)政的關(guān)鍵性貢獻(xiàn))利益的決心。如若沒有必要的財(cái)政手段，梅將無(wú)法糾正她在英國(guó)社會(huì)中看到的種種不公。