英國退歐沒有折中道路

Brexit means Brexit.” As circular as it is concise, this three-word sentence tells us much about the style of Theresa May, the UK prime minister. I take this to mean that the UK will, in her view, formally leave the EU, without the option of a second referendum or a parliamentary override. If so, it seems overwhelmingly likely that the outcome will be “hard Brexit”.

“退歐就是退歐(Brexit means Brexit)。”這句既重復(fù)又簡練的話極大地透露出英國首相特里薩•梅(Theresa May)的行事風(fēng)格。我認(rèn)為這句話的意思是，在她看來，英國將正式脫離歐盟——不會出現(xiàn)二次全民公投或是議會推翻公投結(jié)果的情況。如果這樣的話，看起來極有可能的結(jié)果將是一場“硬退歐”(hard Brexit)。

By “hard Brexit” I mean a departure not only from the EU but also from the customs union and the single market. The UK should, however, end up with a free-trade arrangement that covers goods and possibly some parts of services and, one hopes, liberal travel arrangements. But the “passporting” of UK-based financial institutions would end and London would cease to be the EU’s unrivalled financial capital. The UK and the EU would also impose controls on their nationals’ ability to work in one another’s economies.

使用“硬退歐”一詞，我的意思是，英國不僅將脫離歐盟，還將退出關(guān)稅同盟和單一市場。然而，英國最終應(yīng)當(dāng)達(dá)成一項涵蓋商品、或許還包括部分服務(wù)的自由貿(mào)易安排，人們希望還能達(dá)成自由旅行安排。但總部在英國的金融機(jī)構(gòu)的“護(hù)照”將失效，倫敦將不再是歐盟首屈一指的金融中心。英國和歐盟還將對各自的公民到彼此經(jīng)濟(jì)體中工作的能力加以限制。

This is not the outcome many desire. As the Japanese government has made brutally clear, many Japanese businesses invested in the UK in the justified belief that the latter would provide a stable base for trade with the rest of the EU on terms as favourable as those available to producers anywhere else. These businesses are understandably worried about their prospects. The same applies to many others whose plans were made on the assumption that the UK had a settled policy of staying inside the EU.

這并非很多人希望看到的結(jié)果。正如日本政府已經(jīng)非常明確地表明的，許多日本企業(yè)當(dāng)初投資英國時，理所當(dāng)然地相信英國可以提供一個穩(wěn)固的基地，讓它們能夠以不輸于其他任何地方制造商的優(yōu)越條件與歐盟其他地區(qū)進(jìn)行貿(mào)易。這些企業(yè)對自身前景的擔(dān)憂是可以理解的。其他許多將規(guī)劃建立在假定英國有留在歐盟的確定政策之上的企業(yè)，也面臨同樣的情況。

“Hard Brexit” would disrupt their plans.Should the UK leave the customs union and enter a free-trade agreement with the EU, rules of origin would apply to exports of goods from the UK to the EU. This standard bureaucratic procedure would be needed to ensure that imports into the UK did not become a route to circumvent the EU’s external tariff. Rules of origin would put UK-based exporters at a disadvantage vis-à-vis those based in the EU. The same would be true for, in particular, banks should the UK leave the single market.

“硬退歐”將打亂這些企業(yè)的計劃。如果英國退出關(guān)稅同盟并與歐盟簽署自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，原產(chǎn)地規(guī)則將適用于英國向歐盟的貨物出口。為確保英國的進(jìn)口不會成為繞過歐盟對外關(guān)稅的路徑，這套標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的官僚程序是必要的。原產(chǎn)地規(guī)則將使得在英國的出口商相對于那些在歐盟的出口商處于不利地位。如果英國脫離單一市場的話，同樣的情況也將適用于其他類型的企業(yè)，尤其是銀行。

Why then is a hard Brexit the most likely outcome? My belief rests on the view that this UK government will not seek to reverse the result of the vote and that it will feel obliged to impose controls on immigration from the EU and to free itself from the bloc’s regulations overseen by its judicial processes.

那么，為什么“硬退歐”會是最可能的結(jié)果?我的理由是：本屆英國政府將不會設(shè)法扭轉(zhuǎn)此次公投的結(jié)果，而且它將認(rèn)為自己必須控制來自歐盟的移民，必須讓自身擺脫受到歐盟司法程序管理的歐盟監(jiān)管規(guī)定。

Continued membership of the customs union or the single market, from outside the EU, would deprive the UK of legislative autonomy. The former would mean it could not adopt its own trade policy. The latter would mean accepting all regulations relating to the single market, without possessing any say on them, continuing with free movement of labour, and, probably, paying budget contributions. A country that has rejected membership is not going to accept so humiliating an alternative. It would be a state of dependence far worse than continued EU membership.

退出歐盟但繼續(xù)保留為關(guān)稅同盟或單一市場的成員，將使英國失去立法自主權(quán)。留在關(guān)稅同盟意味著英國無法實施自己的貿(mào)易政策。留在單一市場意味著接受與單一市場相關(guān)的所有監(jiān)管規(guī)定，卻對這些規(guī)定沒有任何發(fā)言權(quán)，還得繼續(xù)支持勞動力自由流動，可能還要出錢分擔(dān)預(yù)算。一個拒絕了歐盟成員資格的國家不會接受一個如此侮辱性的替代選擇，如果接受這種選擇，那將意味著一種比繼續(xù)留在歐盟還要嚴(yán)重得多的依賴狀態(tài)。

The only reasonable alternative to hard Brexit would be to stay inside the EU. Parliament is constitutionally entitled to ignore the vote result. The people could also be asked if they wanted to change their minds. But the Conservatives would surely follow Labour into ruin if they tried to reverse the outcome. Their Brexiters would go berserk.

如果不想硬退歐，唯一合理的替代選擇就是留在歐盟。根據(jù)憲法，議會有權(quán)無視此次公投結(jié)果。也可以問問英國人民是不是想改變主意。但如果保守黨試圖扭轉(zhuǎn)公投結(jié)果的的話，它無疑將會步工黨的后塵、陷入內(nèi)亂。保守黨中支持退歐的人士會氣瘋。

Of course, it is logically possible that the EU might alter the terms of engagement. It might, for example, change its mind on the sacred status of free movement. If it had done so, the referendum would surely have had a different result. But this now looks near inconceivable.

當(dāng)然，歐盟改變合作條款在邏輯上也是可能的。例如，歐盟或許會改變觀念，不再將人口自由流動視為一條神圣不可侵犯的原則。如果歐盟早這樣做的話，退歐公投必然會出現(xiàn)一個不同的結(jié)果。但如今，這看起來幾乎是匪夷所思的。

If “hard Brexit” is, indeed, the destination, the aim must be to get there with the minimum of damage to both sides. Some Brexiters propose that the UK should repeal the European Communities Act, rather than go through Article 50. That would violate its treaty obligations. Such egregious treaty breaking would hardly be a helpful precursor to the negotiation of trade agreements.

如果結(jié)局真的只能是“硬退歐”，那我們的目標(biāo)必須是將雙方的損失降到最低。一些退歐派人士提出，英國應(yīng)廢除《歐共體法》(European Communities Act)，而非走里斯本條約第50條(Article 50)的程序。這樣做將違反英國的條約義務(wù)。此類破壞條約的糟糕行為將不利于未來的貿(mào)易協(xié)定談判。

It is essential for the UK’s future to go through the formal process of negotiating a departure. But, as Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform notes, that will be just one of six tough negotiations. The others will be: an ultimate trade pact with the EU; an interim agreement with the bloc, to cover the period between exit and the longer-term deal; re-entry into the World Trade Organisation as a full member; new arrangements with the 50 or so countries that now have an accord with the EU and, presumably, with additional countries, too, such as the US and China; and, finally, UK-EU ties in foreign and defence policy, police and judicial co-operation and counter-terrorism.

走談判退出歐盟的正式程序，對于英國的未來至關(guān)重要。但正如歐洲改革中心(Centre for European Reform)的查爾斯•格蘭特(Charles Grant)指出的，這將只是6場艱苦談判當(dāng)中的一場。其他談判還包括：與歐盟最終的貿(mào)易協(xié)定;在英國退出歐盟后、長期協(xié)定簽署前臨時發(fā)揮作用的過渡性協(xié)定;重新以獨(dú)立成員身份加入世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO);與現(xiàn)在與歐盟簽有協(xié)議的約50個國家談判新的安排(應(yīng)該還要與美國、中國等國談判新安排);最后是英國與歐盟在外交與國防政策、警察和司法合作以及反恐方面的關(guān)系。

Make no mistake, this is going to take years. A decision to adopt unilateral free trade, proposed by some Brexiters, would simplify this. It will not happen.

別想錯，這一過程將需要數(shù)年時間。采用單邊自由貿(mào)易(如一些退歐派提出的)的決定將簡化這一進(jìn)程。但這不會發(fā)生。

In all this, the crucial negotiation, to accompany talks under Article 50, is over transitional arrangements, to ensure the UK does not lose all preferential access to EU markets upon leaving.

其中，至關(guān)重要的談判(伴隨依照第50條的談判)是圍繞過渡期安排的，以確保英國不會一退歐就失去所有進(jìn)入歐盟市場的優(yōu)惠條件。

Ideally, this deal should be some sort of “free trade plus”. How much it could be “plus” depends on flexibility on both sides, especially over free movement. In practice, it would probably not be very plus. But the UK government should state that it will not trigger Article 50 until the EU agrees to discuss a transitional agreement that, ideally, would be close to a final one.

理論上，這一協(xié)議應(yīng)該是某種形式的“自由貿(mào)易+”。“+”多少取決于雙方的靈活性，尤其在人口自由流動方面。實際上，很可能不會“+”多少。但英國政府應(yīng)聲明，在歐盟同意談判過渡性協(xié)議(如果過渡性協(xié)議能夠接近最終協(xié)議是最理想的)之前，它不會觸發(fā)第50條。

Do I like this outcome? No. I would like a government prepared to overturn the referendum. Nothing has changed my view that the UK is making a huge economic and strategic blunder. The country is going to be meaner and poorer. David Cameron will go down as one of the worst prime ministers in UK history. But the halfway houses between membership of the EU and hard Brexit are uninhabitable. So what now has to be done is to move to the miserable new dispensation as smoothly as possible.

我喜歡這樣的結(jié)果嗎?不。我更希望政府愿意推翻上次的公投結(jié)果。我依然堅信，英國正在犯下一個巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)和戰(zhàn)略錯誤。英國將變得更破、更窮。戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)將成為英國歷史上最糟糕的首相之一。但在留歐與硬退歐之間，沒有走得通的中間道路。所以，現(xiàn)在必須做的就是盡可能平穩(wěn)地轉(zhuǎn)移到令人痛苦的新位置。

The UK has chosen a largely illusory autonomy over EU membership. That has consequences. It will have to accept this grim reality and move as quickly as it can to whatever the future holds.

英國拋棄歐盟成員國資格，選擇了很大程度上徒有虛名的自主權(quán)。選了，就要承擔(dān)后果。英國將不得不接受這一殘酷現(xiàn)實，盡可能快地奔向未來——無論會遇到什么。