中國輪值G20主席國，將如何改變世界？

The G20 summit to be held in the Chinese city of Hangzhou in early September is unlike any previous one: it will be hosted by the largest developing country in the world. But a key question remains: can China succeed in shaking the world's 20 biggest economies out of their torpor?

二十國集團(tuán)(G20)峰會(huì)將于九月初在中國杭州舉行。與過去歷屆峰會(huì)不同，此次峰會(huì)將由世界上最大的發(fā)展中國家主辦。但關(guān)鍵問題是：中國能否讓世界20大經(jīng)濟(jì)體復(fù)蘇?

China has high hopes for chairing a successful G20 summit, the country's biggest diplomatic event of the year. Plenty is already on the table, including a Beijing-led push to upgrade the G20 from a crisis response mechanism to a long-term governance platform.

G20峰會(huì)是中國年度外交盛事，而中國也非常有信心能成功舉辦此次峰會(huì)。許多話題已經(jīng)引起了熱議，其中包括中國提出的推動(dòng)G20從危機(jī)應(yīng)對向長效治理機(jī)制轉(zhuǎn)型。

The economic weight and growing agility of China in managing international affairs, experts say, would prove advantageous in getting things done at the forum, particularly in bringing major industrialized economies as well as emerging markets together to tackle the root causes of faltering global growth.

專家表示，中國處理國際事務(wù)的靈活性不斷提高，加上如今的國際經(jīng)濟(jì)地位，將有利于推動(dòng)峰會(huì)成果的達(dá)成，特別是將主要的工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體以及新興市場團(tuán)結(jié)起來，共同從根源上解決世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長乏力的問題。

Long-term governance

長效治理

The G20 mechanism, as a primary platform for international economic cooperation, has long focused on coordinating monetary and fiscal policies among the world's top developed and developing nations in response to global financial crises.

G20機(jī)制是一個(gè)國際經(jīng)濟(jì)合作的主要平臺(tái)，一直致力于協(xié)調(diào)世界主要發(fā)達(dá)國家與發(fā)展中國家的貨幣和財(cái)政政策，以應(yīng)對全球金融危機(jī)。

But after eight years of slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, an urgency can be felt across G20 members for collective action on more fundamental aspects of the global economy.

但自2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇緩慢。因此，G20成員認(rèn)為各國必須在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)更重大的領(lǐng)域中進(jìn)行合作。

A highlight of the upcoming summit will be developing a G20 blueprint for innovative growth, which includes a concrete action plan for building a new industrial revolution and the digital economy.

此次G20峰會(huì)的一大亮點(diǎn)就是制定G20創(chuàng)新增長藍(lán)圖，包括建設(shè)新工業(yè)革命和數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)的具體行動(dòng)計(jì)劃。

"It is the first G20 summit with a focus on the long-term impetus of global growth," said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a briefing late May.

中國外交部長王毅在五月底的一個(gè)中外媒體吹風(fēng)會(huì)上表示：“這是G20首次聚焦全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的中長期動(dòng)力。”

"Fiscal and monetary policies can only serve as countercyclical tools that help smooth out volatility in the short term," said Professor Zhu Jiejin of Fudan University. "It's just like medicine. It may cure an illness, but does not strengthen the health of an economy."

“財(cái)政和貨幣政策只能作為一種反周期的工具，在短期內(nèi)緩解經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)”，復(fù)旦大學(xué)教授朱杰金說道，“就像是藥物一樣，它能緩解病情，卻不能增強(qiáng)體質(zhì)。”

Zhu said the consensus on innovation had been a hard-won achievement under the Chinese presidency, especially given the severe market volatility in the first quarter of 2016.

朱教授表示，2016年第一季度的市場波動(dòng)極大，而中國作為G20輪值主席國，能促進(jìn)各國在創(chuàng)新方面達(dá)成一致，這實(shí)屬不易。

"It is not easy for China to stay focused on a long-term agenda when some are calling for short-term stimulus packages," Zhu said.

“一些國家謀求短期內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃，因此中國要聚焦在長期議題上并不容易”，朱教授說道。

Swiss Finance Minister Ueli Maurer underlined China's emphasis on fostering innovation and other structural reforms, which, he said, were important to raise productivity and ensure the quality and sustainability of growth.

瑞士財(cái)政部長于利•毛雷爾強(qiáng)調(diào)，中國將重點(diǎn)放在了推動(dòng)創(chuàng)新和其他結(jié)構(gòu)性改革上。他表示，這對于提高生產(chǎn)力和確保高質(zhì)量、可持續(xù)的增長是非常重要的。

"In this respect, the G20 Blueprint on Innovative Growth represents an ambitious agenda toward a new paradigm for growth based on knowledge and on new and cleaner technologies," he told Xinhua. "Many countries have, since the global financial crisis of 2008/09, relied too heavily on monetary and fiscal easing,"

“而在這方面，《G20創(chuàng)新增長藍(lán)圖》體現(xiàn)了以知識和新潔凈科技為基礎(chǔ)的增長模式的轉(zhuǎn)變，這是一個(gè)非常宏偉的目標(biāo)”，他向新華社記者表示，“自2008年全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來，許多國家都過于依賴貨幣和財(cái)政寬松政策了。”

Another eye-catching item on the agenda is going to be outlining steps to implement the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the first time development is being given priority in a global macro-policy framework.

峰會(huì)日程上的另一個(gè)亮點(diǎn)議題就是制定計(jì)劃以實(shí)施聯(lián)合國《2030年可持續(xù)發(fā)展議程》，發(fā)展問題首次在全球宏觀政策框架占據(jù)了突出位置。

Huang Wei, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that "developed countries cannot thrive alone in this increasingly interconnected world. Developed and developing countries need to pool their resources to reverse sagging global growth."

中國社科院研究員黃薇表示：“在這個(gè)各國聯(lián)系日益緊密的世界里，發(fā)達(dá)國家僅憑借一己之力是無法繁榮的。發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家需要進(jìn)行資源共享，才能扭轉(zhuǎn)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩的困境。”

Huang noted the systematic nature of implementing the United Nations development goals, which incorporate social and environmental dimensions as well as growth. "Only with a holistic approach can we solve fundamental problems in the global economy," she told Xinhua. "The G20 used to deal with only specific problems."

黃薇還表示，實(shí)施聯(lián)合國可持續(xù)發(fā)展議程是一個(gè)系統(tǒng)的過程，包括社會(huì)、環(huán)境和發(fā)展等方面。“我們只能用一個(gè)整體的方案來解決全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的重大問題”，她對新華社記者說道，“過去，G20峰會(huì)僅僅是解決某些特定的問題。”

According to Chen Fengying, a researcher with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, the G20 has expanded its main policy goal for strong, sustainable and balanced growth that was laid down at the Pittsburgh summit in 2009. "It is not easy for China to host a fruitful summit when there is no apparent crisis," she said. "But China has made an unprecedented contribution to the G20 by charting out a new future."

中國現(xiàn)代國際關(guān)系研究院的研究員陳鳳英表示，為了實(shí)現(xiàn)2009年匹茲堡峰會(huì)上提出的 “強(qiáng)勁、可持續(xù)和平衡增長”目標(biāo) ，G20已進(jìn)一步增加了其主要政策目標(biāo)。“目前，經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的跡象不明顯，中國要保證這次的G20峰會(huì)取得豐富成果并非易事”，陳鳳英說道，“但中國為G20繪就了發(fā)展新藍(lán)圖，作出了前所未有的貢獻(xiàn)。”

Moreover, amid sluggish trade and weak investment, the G20 under China's presidency this year opened up a new and more substantive avenue for stimulating growth: a trade ministers meeting to promote international trade and investment.

而且，在全球貿(mào)易和投資增長乏力之際，中國作為G20輪值主席國，在今年開辟了全新的、更具實(shí)質(zhì)性的渠道——舉辦旨在促進(jìn)全球貿(mào)易投資增長的貿(mào)易部長會(huì)議，以刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

"We cracked some real issues, because China took the initiative of setting up the trade and investment working group and put in lots of work, which has been very productive," said Rita Teaotia, commerce secretary of the Indian Department of Commerce.

印度商務(wù)部部長麗塔•蒂奧烏沙表示：“由于中國首創(chuàng)了G20貿(mào)易投資工作組，并開展了許多富有成效的工作，我們才得以解決了一些棘手的問題。”

"From the Hangzhou summit onward," said Chen, "there will be two wheels driving the G20, with the traditional finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, and the new mechanism of trade ministers' meeting."

陳鳳英說：“杭州G20峰會(huì)召開后，兩個(gè)‘輪子’將助力推動(dòng)G20峰會(huì)的展開，那就是傳統(tǒng)的財(cái)長會(huì)議和央行行長會(huì)議以及新引入的貿(mào)易部長會(huì)議機(jī)制。”

This could be one of the biggest breakthroughs at this year's summit. Many of the long-term structural problems in the global economy have to do with trade and investment, she said.

“這可能會(huì)成為今年杭州G20峰會(huì)最大的突破之一。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中許多長期結(jié)構(gòu)性問題都與貿(mào)易和投資相關(guān)，”她說。

Shaping the agenda

完善峰會(huì)議程

At this year's G20 summit, China will also be playing a more prominent role in international affairs.

在今年的G20峰會(huì)上，中國將會(huì)在國際事務(wù)中發(fā)揮更突出的作用。

"This will be the first time that China hosts a global economic governance summit, unlike chairing regional meetings such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation," said Chen. "It is a good opportunity for China to exercise its power in global economics."

“這是中國首次舉辦商討全球經(jīng)濟(jì)治理的峰會(huì)，這與舉行亞太經(jīng)合組織會(huì)議等區(qū)域性會(huì)議不一樣”，陳鳳英說，“這是中國在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中展示力量的好時(shí)機(jī)。”

She explained that because the G20 is an international forum with no secretariat or enforcing agencies, the outcome of the summit is to a large extent determined by the will of the host country.

她解釋道，G20作為一個(gè)國際論壇，沒有常設(shè)的秘書處，也沒有執(zhí)行機(jī)構(gòu)。所以，G20峰會(huì)能取得什么樣的成果很大程度上取決于主辦國。

"As a big country, China has the influence to push for specific goals, especially when they coincide with the interests of other countries," she said, praising China's concrete action plans in the context of vaguer pledges of past years.

“作為一個(gè)有影響力的大國，中國能夠推動(dòng)達(dá)成特定的目標(biāo)，特別是那些與其他國家的利益相契合的目標(biāo)，”陳鳳英說道。相對于以前定下的相對模糊的承諾，她認(rèn)為中國制定的具體行動(dòng)計(jì)劃確實(shí)值得稱贊。

Zhu stressed that China, as the biggest developing country, has the responsibility to promote more balanced governance of the global economy.

朱教授強(qiáng)調(diào)，中國作為最大的發(fā)展中國家，有責(zé)任推動(dòng)建立更加均衡的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)治理模式。

"The birth of the G20 has broken the myth of the G7 and allows for the exploration into diverse paths of growth," he said.

“G20打破了G7的舊邏輯，考慮到要探索不同的發(fā)展道路，”朱教授說道。

According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund, emerging and developing economies are home to 85 percent of the world's population, accounting for almost 60 percent of global GDP and contributing to more than 80 percent of global growth since the 2008 financial crisis. China alone has contributed 35 percent to global growth in the past five years.

國際貨幣基金組織的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體以及發(fā)展中國家的人口占世界總?cè)丝诘?5%，GDP占比接近全球的60%;自2008年金融危機(jī)以來，這些國家對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率超過了80%。過去五年，中國對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率為35%。

The view of China's growing role in global economic governance is widely shared.

“中國在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)治理中發(fā)揮著越來越重要的作用，這是大家都認(rèn)同的。

"There is probably some means for building new institutions given the rise of Asia and rise of China," said Tim Harcourt of the University of New South Wales in Australia. "I think in some ways the G20 can play that role."

“隨著中國及亞洲的崛起，我們也許能夠找到建立新體系的方法，”澳大利亞新南威爾士大學(xué)的提姆•哈考特教授說，“我認(rèn)為在某種程度上，G20就能發(fā)揮這樣的角色。”

China is now in a position to assert its influence in the management of the global economy, according to a report that was released in March by the London-based Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs. Other countries are ready to learn from China's experiences in transforming its economy, it added.

英國皇家國際事務(wù)研究所——倫敦查塔姆研究所3月發(fā)布的報(bào)告顯示，如今中國在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)治理中正發(fā)揮著自身的影響力。報(bào)告還指出，其他國家也非常愿意借鑒中國在經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展中的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。