什么是希拉里的美國(guó)夢(mèng)？

Until recently most of the world yearned for the US to become a more normal country. It had seen enough of George W Bush’s freedom agenda to put it off American exceptionalism for good. People should be careful what they wish for. Donald Trump may be the most gaffe-prone — and offensive — US presidential nominee in history. But he is also the first to scorn the belief that America’s mission should be to uphold universal values. It is not clear he even thinks such values exist. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is their unabashed cheerleader. “I believe with all my heart that America is an exceptional country,” she said in June. “We are still, in Lincoln’s words, the last best hope of earth.”

直到最近，世界大部分地區(qū)都渴望美國(guó)變成一個(gè)更平常的國(guó)家。他們受夠了喬治•W•布什(George W Bush)在全球推動(dòng)自由的議程，以至對(duì)美國(guó)例外論心生反感。人們應(yīng)該小心自己的期盼。唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)可能是美國(guó)歷史上最出言不遜——以及最具攻擊性——的總統(tǒng)候選人。但他也是第一個(gè)對(duì)以下信念——美國(guó)的使命應(yīng)是維護(hù)普世價(jià)值觀——表現(xiàn)出不屑的總統(tǒng)候選人。我們甚至不清楚他是否認(rèn)為存在這些價(jià)值觀。另一方面，希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)則是這些價(jià)值觀的堅(jiān)定擁護(hù)者。“我由衷地相信美國(guó)是一個(gè)例外的國(guó)家，”她6月時(shí)表示，“我們?nèi)允?mdash;—用亞伯拉罕•林肯(Abraham Lincoln)的話(huà)說(shuō)——地球上最后、最好的希望。”

Long-suffering US realists — those who argue that America should merely pursue its national interests — must wonder what they did to deserve such a champion. Mr Trump vows to avoid foreign entanglements, such as pre-emptive wars in Iraq. That is what realists want to hear. Ditto for Mr Trump’s view that America’s allies should pay for more of their defence, or that China is entitled to occupy atolls in a sea named after it. Why should America always play the referee? But Mr Trump inevitably spoils things by adding his own gloss — promising a nuclear attack on Isis, for example, or claiming that President Barack Obama founded the terrorist group. The key to successful realism is tactical guile and deep knowledge of the world. Mr Trump epitomises the opposite. With friends like Mr Trump, realists need no enemies.

長(zhǎng)期不如意的美國(guó)現(xiàn)實(shí)主義者——那些主張美國(guó)應(yīng)該只追求本國(guó)國(guó)家利益的人士——一定驚訝于他們做了什么才會(huì)出現(xiàn)這樣一位現(xiàn)實(shí)主義的擁護(hù)者。特朗普誓言要避免對(duì)外干涉，例如對(duì)伊拉克進(jìn)行的先發(fā)制人的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。這正是現(xiàn)實(shí)主義者希望聽(tīng)到的。他們也認(rèn)同特朗普的其他一些觀點(diǎn)：美國(guó)的盟友應(yīng)更多地承擔(dān)本國(guó)的防務(wù)開(kāi)支，或是中國(guó)有權(quán)占有以其國(guó)名命名的海域內(nèi)的島礁。為什么美國(guó)總要擔(dān)當(dāng)裁判?但特朗普的口無(wú)遮攔不可避免地把事情搞糟了，例如，他許諾要對(duì)“伊斯蘭國(guó)”(ISIS)進(jìn)行核打擊，或是宣稱(chēng)美國(guó)總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)創(chuàng)立了該恐怖組織。成功的現(xiàn)實(shí)主義的關(guān)鍵是在戰(zhàn)術(shù)上的狡詐和對(duì)世界的深刻理解。特朗普恰恰是反面的典型代表。有了特朗普這樣的隊(duì)友，現(xiàn)實(shí)主義者不需要敵人。

There is also the likelihood that he will lose to Mrs Clinton in November. Mr Trump’s defeat would probably come in spite of his foreign policy instincts, rather than because of them. For years, the US public has said it is tired of military adventures, thinks Nato allies should shoulder more of the burden and that America’s global role should be more modest. Nation-building is no longer an election winner, if it ever was one. Mr Trump’s “America first” slogan might have unfortunate antecedents (it was picked up by Fascist sympathisers in the early 1940s), but many Americans are happy with its current meaning. If he loses it will be because of his manifestly unpresidential temperament and a tendency to insult almost every group in America.

而且，特朗普可能在11月的大選中輸給希拉里。盡管在外交政策方面直覺(jué)不錯(cuò)，他還是可能會(huì)落敗——他的失敗倒不是因?yàn)檫@些直覺(jué)。多年來(lái)，美國(guó)民眾已經(jīng)表示出了對(duì)軍事冒險(xiǎn)的厭倦，他們認(rèn)為，北約盟國(guó)應(yīng)該承擔(dān)更多的責(zé)任，美國(guó)扮演的全球性角色應(yīng)該更加適度。國(guó)家建設(shè)議題不再是競(jìng)選中的制勝法寶(如果曾經(jīng)是的話(huà))。特朗普的“美國(guó)第一”的口號(hào)或許有令人遺憾的先例(上世紀(jì)40年代初法西斯主義的同情者提過(guò))，但許多美國(guó)人對(duì)其現(xiàn)在的含義感到滿(mǎn)意。如果特朗普失敗了，原因在于他明顯毫無(wú)總統(tǒng)氣質(zhì)以及他侮辱美國(guó)幾乎所有群體的傾向。

Unfortunately for realists, their ship may go down with him, which means the USS Exceptionalist would set sail again under Mrs Clinton next January. Where was it during the Obama years? Mr Obama’s foreign policy has been neither exceptionalist nor realist but a hybrid of the two. A few weeks after he took office, I asked whether he subscribed to the school of US exceptionalism. Mr Obama replied that he was a US exceptionalist in much the same way that “Brits subscribe to British exceptionalism, and Greeks subscribe to Greek exceptionalism”. His creed, in other words, was avowedly subjective. Given how harshly Mr Obama’s critics have questioned his patriotism, his answer today may be less ambivalent. It is hard to imagine Mrs Clinton saying that. A true exceptionalist leaves no room for doubt. They believe the US stands taller and sees further than other nations, as Madeleine Albright, the former secretary of state, once said.

對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)主義者而言，不幸的是，他們的大船或?qū)⑴c特朗普一同沉沒(méi)，這意味著，“美國(guó)例外號(hào)巨輪”將于明年1月在希拉里的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下再次起航。那么在奧巴馬執(zhí)政時(shí)期這艘船在哪里呢?奧巴馬的外交政策既非美國(guó)例外主義，也非現(xiàn)實(shí)主義，而是兩者的混合。奧巴馬上任幾周后，我問(wèn)他是否信奉美國(guó)例外論。奧巴馬回答說(shuō)，他信奉美國(guó)例外論就像“英國(guó)人信奉英國(guó)例外主義，希臘人信奉希臘例外主義”。換句話(huà)說(shuō)，他的政治綱領(lǐng)公開(kāi)地帶有主觀性。鑒于奧巴馬的批評(píng)者對(duì)他的愛(ài)國(guó)主義的強(qiáng)烈質(zhì)疑，如果是今天回答上述問(wèn)題，他的答案會(huì)更為明確。很難想象希拉里會(huì)那樣說(shuō)。一個(gè)真正的美國(guó)例外論者不會(huì)留下任何被質(zhì)疑的余地。正如美國(guó)前國(guó)務(wù)卿馬德琳•奧爾布賴(lài)特(Madeleine Albright)曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò)的，他們相信美國(guó)比其他國(guó)家站得更高、看得更遠(yuǎn)。

What would this mean for a Clinton administration? Unexpected events would dictate much of her presidency, as is always the case. Ronald Reagan’s struggle with the Soviet Union’s “evil empire” was rendered moot by the rise of Mikhail Gorbachev. Bush junior took office promising a humbler foreign policy. He pivoted quickly to hubris after the 9/11 attacks. Mr Obama promised to wind down the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. He will leave office with thousands of US soldiers in each country. Bill Clinton, meanwhile, vowed to uphold human rights and confront the “butchers of Beijing”. To his lasting regret, he turned a blind eye to the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. This was largely because of what he learnt from another event — the “Black Hawk down” debacle in Somalia. He also brought China into the World Trade Organisation. In each case, however, the president’s philosophy shaped how they responded to events.

這對(duì)希拉里政府將意味著什么?像以往一樣，不可預(yù)測(cè)的事件將主導(dǎo)她大部分總統(tǒng)任期。羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)與蘇聯(lián)“邪惡帝國(guó)”的較量因米哈伊爾•戈?duì)柊蛦谭?Mikhail Gorbachev)的崛起而失去意義。小布什上任時(shí)曾承諾實(shí)行謙和的外交政策。9/11恐怖襲擊發(fā)生后，他的態(tài)度迅速地轉(zhuǎn)向了自大。奧巴馬承諾逐步結(jié)束在阿富汗和伊拉克的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。到他離任時(shí)，這兩國(guó)還將駐扎有數(shù)千名美軍士兵。比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)曾誓言要維護(hù)人權(quán)，對(duì)抗“北京的屠夫”。讓他始終感到懊悔的是，他對(duì)1994年盧旺達(dá)種族屠殺不聞不問(wèn)。這主要是因?yàn)樗麖牧硪皇录袑W(xué)到教訓(xùn)——在索馬里的“黑鷹墜落”事件。他還將中國(guó)帶入了世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO)。然而，每一起事件中，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)的信念決定了他們會(huì)如何做出回應(yīng)。

Many assume that Mrs Clinton would simply pick up the baton from Mr Obama, since she was his first secretary of state. But serving a president is very different from being one. On each military question that arose in Mr Obama’s first term, Mrs Clinton took the hawkish view. Sometimes she was on the winning side, such as on intervention in Libya. At others, such as on whether to arm Syrian rebels, her advice was overruled. In spite of her early involvement in the Iran nuclear talks, it is doubtful if she would have signed Mr Obama’s deal.

很多人認(rèn)為，希拉里可能將只是延續(xù)奧巴馬的執(zhí)政方針，因?yàn)樗菉W巴馬手下的第一任國(guó)務(wù)卿。但是，效力于總統(tǒng)與自己當(dāng)總統(tǒng)迥然不同。對(duì)于奧巴馬第一任期出現(xiàn)的所有軍事問(wèn)題，希拉里都持強(qiáng)硬觀點(diǎn)。有時(shí)她可以占上風(fēng)，例如對(duì)利比亞的干預(yù)。有時(shí)——比如是否武裝敘利亞叛軍——她的建議被否決了。盡管參與了早期的伊朗核談判，但如果還在國(guó)務(wù)卿之位的話(huà)，她是否會(huì)簽署奧巴馬的伊朗核協(xié)議值得懷疑。

Her campaign rhetoric is also strikingly different from Mr Obama’s. In 2008 he pledged to revive America’s moral authority in a world reeling from Mr Bush’s wars of choice. She vows to engage with a dangerous world with all the tools at her disposal. It is a different sensibility.

希拉里的競(jìng)選言辭也與奧巴馬截然不同。2008年，奧巴馬誓言在一個(gè)受到小布什“可打可不打的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”沖擊的世界里恢復(fù)美國(guó)的道德權(quán)威。而希拉里發(fā)誓要用所有可以訴諸的手段介入一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的世界。這是一種不同的覺(jué)悟。

Mr Obama once summed up his approach to foreign policy as “don’t do stupid shit”. In a rare critical moment, Mrs Clinton said Mr Obama’s maxim did not amount to an organising principle. She was right, of course. But in these hazardous times, the instinct to first do no harm may be worth more than we can appreciate.

奧巴馬曾將自己的外交政策方針總結(jié)為“不做蠢事”。希拉里有一次罕見(jiàn)地對(duì)奧巴馬提出批評(píng)，說(shuō)他的座右銘并不等同于組織原則。當(dāng)然，她說(shuō)的沒(méi)錯(cuò)。但在這些危急時(shí)期，首先不為害這種本能的價(jià)值可能超出了我們能理解的范疇。