日本首季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期

Japan’s economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.7per cent in the first quarter of 2016, easily beatingexpectations of a 0.3 per cent rise, in a big boost tothe country’s beleaguered policymakers.

今年第一季度，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)按年率計(jì)算增長了1.7%，遠(yuǎn)超增長0.3%的預(yù)期，將大大激勵該國處于困境中的政策制定者。

Rising gross domestic product reverses acontraction in the fourth quarter of 2015 andmeans Japan has avoided another technicalrecession, defined as two consecutive quarters ofnegative growth.

這一增長逆轉(zhuǎn)了去年第四季度的收縮，意味著日本避免了又一次技術(shù)性衰退。技術(shù)性衰退的定義是連續(xù)兩個季度經(jīng)濟(jì)負(fù)增長。

The faster than expected pace of growth suggests the Japanese economy is managing to shakeoff the effects of a slowdown in China and a stronger yen — at least for now — with domesticdemand having more momentum than previously thought.

經(jīng)濟(jì)增速快于預(yù)期表明，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)正成功擺脫中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩和日元升值的影響(至少目前如此)，國內(nèi)的需求勢頭比之前想象的要強(qiáng)。

Robust growth data are likely to mean a smaller fiscal stimulus by the government of PrimeMinister Shinzo Abe, which was poised to act if the data had been bad.

強(qiáng)勁的增長數(shù)據(jù)很可能意味著，日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的政府不用再實(shí)施那么大的財(cái)政刺激。假如這次的數(shù)據(jù)糟糕，日本政府打算實(shí)施這種刺激。

The data will give heart to the Bank of Japan — suggesting the economy is growing faster thanits long-run trend of about 0.5 per cent — although it is unlikely to have much direct effect onmonetary policy. The BoJ is still under pressure to ease because of the rising yen and theweakness of inflation.

這一數(shù)據(jù)對日本央行(Bank of Japan)是個鼓舞。它表明，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)正以快于長期趨勢水平(即增速約0.5%)的速度增長，盡管這不太可能對貨幣政策產(chǎn)生多少直接影響。由于日元升值、通脹疲弱，日本央行仍面臨放松銀根的壓力。

Consumption contributed 1 percentage point to annualised growth, government consumptionadded 0.6 percentage points and trade chipped in 0.8 percentage points of growth. Thestronger pace of consumption is particularly encouraging, suggesting higher wages are turninginto spending at the shops.

消費(fèi)為年化增長貢獻(xiàn)了1個百分點(diǎn)，政府消費(fèi)貢獻(xiàn)了0.6個百分點(diǎn)，貿(mào)易貢獻(xiàn)了0.8個百分點(diǎn)。消費(fèi)增速加快尤其鼓舞人心，它表明薪資上漲正轉(zhuǎn)化為消費(fèi)支出。

Although the figures send a positive message about the economy, Japan’s initial GDP data arenotoriously unreliable, and revisions often change the picture substantially.

盡管這些數(shù)據(jù)傳遞出關(guān)于日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的積極信號，但日本GDP初值出了名的不可靠，對初值的修正往往會令圖景發(fā)生巨大改變。