沙特阿拉伯眼下一團(tuán)糟 改革被批"太搞笑"

Saudi Arabia is in a mess. That conclusion seems tobe common ground — the view of serious outsideanalysts and of the country’s own government. Theonly question is whether the problems can becorrected by shock treatment of the sort announcedin Riyadh last week.

沙特阿拉伯眼下一團(tuán)糟。這個(gè)結(jié)論似乎是外界認(rèn)真的分析師和沙特政府的一致看法。唯一的問題是，這些問題能否通過上周利雅得宣布的那種休克療法得到解決。

The immediate challenge is clear. Last year,revenue from oil exports fell by 23 per cent. That matters in a country that is 77 per centdependent on oil income. Unemployment is officially 11.6 per cent, not counting the millionswho hold non-jobs in and around the agencies of the state. In total, 70 per cent of Saudis workfor the government. In the first half of last year, according to Mohammed al-Sheikh, the chiefeconomic adviser to the all-powerful deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (knownuniversally as MbS), the kingdom’s financial reserves were being drawn down at a rate thatwould have exhausted them by the end of 2017 — far earlier than had previously beenestimated by outside authorities such as the International Monetary Fund.

直接挑戰(zhàn)顯而易見。去年，來自石油出口的財(cái)政收入下滑23%。對(duì)于一個(gè)77%的財(cái)政收入依賴于石油的國(guó)家來說，這一點(diǎn)關(guān)系重大。在不計(jì)算數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的在政府機(jī)構(gòu)內(nèi)部及周邊無所事事的雇員的情況下，官方失業(yè)率為11.6%?？偣?0%的沙特人為政府工作。去年上半年，為掌握實(shí)權(quán)的沙特副王儲(chǔ)穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman，被普遍稱為MbS)擔(dān)任首席經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問的穆罕默德•阿爾-謝赫(Mohammed al-Sheikh)表示，沙特王國(guó)的資金儲(chǔ)備正在迅速流失，到2017年底就可能會(huì)徹底干涸。這比國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)等外部權(quán)威機(jī)構(gòu)此前的預(yù)測(cè)要早得多。

All those problems were well summed up in a note from McKinseys published at the end of lastyear that talked of the prospect of a rapid economic deterioration in Saudi Arabia over thenext decade.

麥肯錫(McKinsey)去年底發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告很好地總結(jié)了沙特的種種問題，該報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)了未來10年沙特經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速惡化的前景。

So radical change is needed, which brings us to the announcement last week of MbS’s Vision2030, designed to create a modern economy free of dependence on oil. The fullannouncement is worth reading because it demonstrates the sheer scale of the ambition,but a few headlines will give you the flavour.

因此，沙特需要大刀闊斧的改革，這就讓我們回到上周沙特副王儲(chǔ)宣布的《愿景2030》(Vision 2030)。該計(jì)劃旨在打造擺脫對(duì)石油依賴的現(xiàn)代化經(jīng)濟(jì)體。整套報(bào)告值得一讀，因?yàn)樗宫F(xiàn)了沙特的勃勃雄心，但是幾個(gè)標(biāo)題就會(huì)給你一個(gè)大致印象。

•A stake in the state-owned oil company will be floated in an IPO within the next two years.

• 未來兩年內(nèi)，將對(duì)沙特國(guó)有石油公司的部分股權(quán)進(jìn)行首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)。

•The funds from that and other asset sales — perhaps $2tn dollars or more — will be investedin a new sovereign wealth fund to give the country a regular income from non-oil sources.

• 這筆IPO和出售其他資產(chǎn)所得——可能達(dá)到2萬億美元以上——將投資于一只新的主權(quán)財(cái)富基金，使國(guó)家得以從非石油類資產(chǎn)獲得固定收入。

•The country will be opened up to tourism.

• 沙特將開放旅游業(yè)。

•Expats will be allowed to own property within Saudi Arabia.

• 允許外國(guó)人在沙特境內(nèi)擁有房地產(chǎn)。

•New small and medium-sized enterprises will be encouraged to the point where they accountfor 35 per cent of economic activity.

• 政府將鼓勵(lì)創(chuàng)辦中小型企業(yè)，目標(biāo)是讓這類企業(yè)占據(jù)35%的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。

•Subsidies for oil, water and electricity will be progressive eliminated.

• 逐步取消對(duì)成品油、水和電力的補(bǔ)貼。

•Unemployment will be reduced to 7 per cent

• 將失業(yè)率降至7%。

•A range of new industrial sectors will be developed, including petrochemicals, manufacturingand finance on the basis of foreign investment.

• 依靠外資發(fā)展一系列新的產(chǎn)業(yè)，包括石油化工、制造業(yè)和金融業(yè)。

•An anti-corruption drive in the Ministry of Defence will be combined with the development ofa domestic military equipment business that will be capable of meeting at least half of thecountry’s needs.

• 將在國(guó)防部發(fā)起反腐運(yùn)動(dòng)，同時(shí)發(fā)展國(guó)內(nèi)軍工產(chǎn)業(yè)，使其至少可以滿足沙特一半的軍事裝備需求。

All this builds on a full-scale McKinsey study called “Saudi Arabia — Beyond Oil”, which waspublished at the end of last year.

這一切措施都建立在麥肯錫去年底發(fā)表的全面報(bào)告《沙特阿拉伯——超越石油》(Saudi Arabia — BeyondOil)之上。

The only problem with this grand plan is that is completely unrealistic. To say, as MbS did lastweek, that by 2020 Saudi Arabia will no longer be dependent on oil revenue is beyond adream. To say that the country doesn’t care whether the oil price is $30 a barrel or $70 isridiculous. But the real problem is the reality when it comes to implementation. Last week’spolicy statement makes no reference to any of the difficulties of delivering what is promised.

這份宏偉計(jì)劃的唯一問題是它完全不切實(shí)際。說沙特到2020年將不再依賴石油收入(就像上周副王儲(chǔ)所說的那樣)，簡(jiǎn)直比夢(mèng)話還要烏托邦。說沙特不在乎油價(jià)是每桶30美元還是每桶70美元，實(shí)在荒唐。但是，真正的問題在于落實(shí)這些措施時(shí)的現(xiàn)實(shí)。上周的政策聲明壓根沒提到兌現(xiàn)這些承諾的難度。

Are we really supposed to believe that Saudi Arabia can create an industry to build technicallycomplex military equipment from a zero base?

我們真的應(yīng)該相信沙特可以從零開始、創(chuàng)建一個(gè)有能力制造先進(jìn)軍事裝備的產(chǎn)業(yè)嗎?

Or to believe that western tourists are going to flock to a country whose laws allow people to bestoned to death for adultery or gay sex? The human rights problems are amply and regularlyset out in reports from Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. How many westernwomen will be happy to slip into a burkini for their holidays?

或是相信西方游客會(huì)蜂擁來到這個(gè)依法可對(duì)通奸者或同性戀者處以石刑的國(guó)家嗎?大赦國(guó)際(AmnestyInternational)和人權(quán)觀察組織(Human Rights Watch)的報(bào)告中定期詳細(xì)描述沙特的人權(quán)問題。有多少西方女性愿意在度假時(shí)套上穆斯林泳裝“布基尼”?

How is the civil service which MBS accepted last week was corrupt and inefficient to bereformed when so many of the brightest and best Saudis are happier to live and work inLondon or New York?

在那么多最聰明最優(yōu)秀的沙特人更樂于在倫敦或紐約工作生活的情況下，怎么對(duì)副王儲(chǔ)承認(rèn)腐敗而低效的行政部門進(jìn)行改革呢?

How is Aramco to be converted into a company that can meet western standards oftransparency and good governance? Will the kingdom, for instance, allow an independentexternal analysis of the company’s claimed oil and gas reserves?

沙特阿拉伯國(guó)家石油公司(Saudi Aramco，簡(jiǎn)稱沙特阿美)如何轉(zhuǎn)型為達(dá)到西方透明度及優(yōu)良治理標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的企業(yè)?例如，沙特王國(guó)會(huì)允許外部獨(dú)立機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)該公司聲稱的油氣儲(chǔ)量進(jìn)行分析嗎?

And, perhaps most important of all, how will the Saudi government break the hold ofWahhabistreligious fundamentalism, something the royal family has not managed over the last century?

同時(shí)，或許最重要的是，沙特政府將如何打破瓦哈比派原教旨主義的控制?過去一個(gè)世紀(jì)，沙特皇室都沒能做到這一點(diǎn)。

Without a serious analysis of the delivery process, Vision 2030 is meaningless rhetoric. Thebarriers to progress are not new. They have defeated every attempt to achieve change andreform made by successive Saudi governments. Promises of economic diversification, ofindustrial development, of education for all and of a transformation of the energy sectorthrough the development of renewables have all ended in failure. To ignore the problems ofdelivery is to demonstrate the unreality of the whole approach. I hope McKinsey — a firm ofthe highest integrity — will point this out rather allowing its brand to be tarnished byassociation with a project that it must know cannot work.

在不對(duì)改革落實(shí)過程進(jìn)行認(rèn)真分析的情況下，《愿景2030》只是毫無意義的空談。進(jìn)步的障礙并不新鮮。它們挫敗了歷任沙特政府推行改變和改革的所有嘗試。對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)多元化、工業(yè)發(fā)展、全民教育以及發(fā)展可再生能源以推進(jìn)能源業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的承諾，均以失敗告終。忽視落實(shí)過程中面臨的問題，暴露了整個(gè)思路的脫離實(shí)際。我希望麥肯錫作為一家具有最高誠(chéng)信的公司指出這一點(diǎn)，而不是任由其招牌被它肯定知道行不通的項(xiàng)目玷污。

The worst thing is that MbS, who is 30 and has not enjoyed the benefit of a western educationwith its inbuilt tone of scepticism, actually believes what he is saying and does indeed thinkthat he can transform the country by an act of personal will. The deputy crown prince is thesort of character about whom Shakespeare could have written a great play. It would not haveended happily.

最糟糕的是，這位30歲、從未受過西方教育及其內(nèi)在懷疑思維熏陶的副王儲(chǔ)，實(shí)際上相信自己所說的話，真的認(rèn)為他可以通過個(gè)人意志改變這個(gè)國(guó)家。他屬于那種可以讓莎士比亞寫出一部偉大劇本的人物類型。該劇本不會(huì)以喜劇收?qǐng)觥?/p>

It might be tempting to say that these are Saudi Arabia’s problems and that after innumerablefurther, and no doubt very lucrative, consultancy studies little will change and MbS will beswept away — perhaps by a change of the guard after his father’s death.

人們或許忍不住說，這些都是沙特的問題，在咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)無數(shù)次報(bào)酬豐厚的進(jìn)一步研究之后，幾乎什么都不會(huì)改變，副王儲(chǔ)將被踢出歷史舞臺(tái)——或許是在其父親去世、王位易主之后。

That view is too narrow. Saudi Arabia matters in the region — look at the damage being done inYemen and by the wider conflict with Iran which MbS has been stoking. Provocative behaviour,driven on by economic weakness and competition for shares of the oil market, could make abad neighbourhood even more volatile.

這種觀點(diǎn)太過狹隘。沙特在中東地區(qū)至關(guān)重要——看看也門遭受的損害，以及沙特與伊朗之間的全方位對(duì)抗(這位副王儲(chǔ)正在火上澆油)。受經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟和爭(zhēng)奪石油市場(chǎng)份額驅(qū)動(dòng)，挑釁行為可能會(huì)讓一個(gè)糟糕的地區(qū)更加動(dòng)蕩。

And the country matters in the world, as well. Global oil consumption may be coming to itspeak but it will stay at around 90 to 100mbd for a very long time. The kingdom is a crucialpart of the equation and should be on the side of stability. Pretending the price doesn’tmatter reflects a lack of interest or knowledge when it comes to the wider consequences of thepolicies being pursued.

這個(gè)國(guó)家對(duì)整個(gè)世界同樣舉足輕重。全球石油消費(fèi)可能即將見頂，但仍將在很長(zhǎng)時(shí)期內(nèi)保持在每日9000萬至1億桶水平上。沙特王國(guó)是石油供需平衡的關(guān)鍵組成部分，應(yīng)該成為穩(wěn)定的力量。假裝油價(jià)無關(guān)緊要反映出，對(duì)于政策帶來的更廣泛的后果，某些人要么不關(guān)心、要么不懂。

For Saudi Arabia, the lack of realism behind Vision 2030 can only make a messy situation worse.For those outside the kingdom, the naivity of the approach is another unwelcome source ofinstability and danger.

對(duì)于沙特阿拉伯來說，《愿景2030》背后的不切實(shí)際只會(huì)讓混亂的局面更加糟糕。對(duì)于沙特以外的國(guó)家來說，這種戰(zhàn)略的幼稚是另一個(gè)不受歡迎的動(dòng)蕩和危險(xiǎn)的源頭。