中國樓市反彈暴露深層經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險

HONG KONG — China’s slowdown — which has casta shadow over the global economy and worriedinvestors around the world — stems in part from adeep slump in its crucial property market.

香港——中國的發(fā)展放緩已給全球經(jīng)濟蒙上一層陰影，也引發(fā)了世界各地投資者的擔(dān)憂。發(fā)展放緩的部分原因是國內(nèi)重要房地產(chǎn)市場的深度蕭條。

Now that slump appears to be easing, asconstruction cranes return in some cities and realestate offices in some of the best neighborhoods fillup again with buying customers.

現(xiàn)在，隨著起重機重返某些城市的建設(shè)工地，一些最好地段的房地產(chǎn)銷售處也再次擠滿了要購房的客戶，房地產(chǎn)的蕭條看似有所緩解。

Prices for new homes in the country’s biggest cities are rising sharply, led by the southernboomtown of Shenzhen, where prices jumped a staggering 62 percent in March, compared withthe same period a year earlier, according to official data released on Monday.

據(jù)官方周一公布的數(shù)據(jù)，中國大型城市的新房價格大幅上漲，南部新興城市深圳的漲幅最高。3月份，深圳新房價格與去年同期相比，上漲幅度達到了驚人的62%。

The real estate resurgence comes as growth across the rest of the economy is slowing,providing a welcome and significant boost. Some economists estimate property accounts foras much as a quarter of China’s gross domestic product.

房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的復(fù)蘇，是伴隨著整體經(jīng)濟中其他部分的增長放緩，因此為經(jīng)濟提供了一個受歡迎的重要推動。一些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家估計，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)占中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的四分之一之多。

But the figures also provide more evidence that China is increasingly a two-track economy,something Premier Li Keqiang himself has nodded to, as the gap between winning and losingindustries and regions has become increasingly pronounced.

但是，這些數(shù)字也提供了更多的證據(jù)，表明隨著優(yōu)勢行業(yè)與弱勢行業(yè)以及地區(qū)之間的差距越來越大，中國經(jīng)濟正在日益走上雙軌發(fā)展的道路，李克強總理本人也承認了這點。

That raises the risk that the rebound is too narrow to be sustainable — it is concentrated inChina’s biggest and richest cities — and that it will not outgrow the huge oversupply of unsoldhomes that haunts China’s smaller and farther-flung metropolises.

這也提高了經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇的范圍過于狹窄、復(fù)蘇不可持續(xù)的風(fēng)險。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的好轉(zhuǎn)主要集中在中國最大、最富裕的城市，并沒有讓困擾著中國中小型城市和邊遠城市的未售出房屋得到消減，而這些房屋面臨大量過剩。

The dramatic price increases make it difficult for policy makers to justify further economicstimulus. They also raise the risk that the government could face a backlash from urbanitesgetting priced out of the housing market.

房價的驚人上漲讓政策制定者難以找到采取進一步經(jīng)濟刺激的理由。房價上漲也帶來了另一種風(fēng)險，那就是政府可能會面臨來自支付不起高房價的城市居民的強烈不滿。

“People living in major cities increasingly find property prices unaffordable,” said RaymondYeung, China economist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group.

“在大城市生活的人發(fā)現(xiàn)房價越來越負擔(dān)不起，”在澳新銀行(Australia and New Zealand Banking Group)研究中國經(jīng)濟的專家楊宇霆(Raymond Yeung)說。

“Although the pickup of the property sector helps stabilize economic growth, it will alsorestrain the central bank’s appetite for further monetary policy easing,” Mr. Yeung added.

“雖然房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的好轉(zhuǎn)有助于穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟增長，但這也將抑制央行進一步寬松貨幣政策的胃口，”楊宇霆補充說。

Analysts noted that the current uptick in prices has been the role played by illegal financing,in which sales agents or other third parties provide loans to cover down payments. That practicerecently prompted a crackdown by the authorities.

分析人士指出，非法貸款在目前的價格上揚中起了作用，非法貸款指的是銷售代理商或其他第三方為支付購房首付所提供的貸款。這種做法最近已引起當局的打擊。

According to data released Saturday, real estate is now the fastest-growing component ofChina’s economy, with the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product rising 9.1 percentfrom the level of a year earlier in the first three months of the year. Financial services, bycontrast, grew 8.1 percent — only half as fast as during the peak of the stock market boomlast year.

據(jù)周六公布的數(shù)據(jù)，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)目前是中國經(jīng)濟增長最快的組成部分，與去年一季度相比，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長了9.1%。相比之下，金融行業(yè)環(huán)比增長8.1%，只有去年股市繁榮期高峰增長率的一半。

The rebound has meant brisk business for people like Wu Chao, a manager at a branch officeof Maitian, a popular Beijing real estate agency.

房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的好轉(zhuǎn)，對吳超這樣的人來說，意味著生意興隆，他是北京房產(chǎn)中介公司麥田房產(chǎn)一家分店的經(jīng)理。

In an interview on Monday at his sales office Shuangjing, an affluent area in central Beijingwith a nice view of the main business district and a short walk to an international school, Mr.Wu explained some of the main reasons for the property price rally.

周一，他在麥田房產(chǎn)雙井店接受采訪時，解釋了房價上漲的主要原因，雙井是北京市中心一個富裕地段，可以看到主要商業(yè)區(qū)的美景，不長的步行距離就有一所國際學(xué)校。

Nearly all of the factors cited by Mr. Wu involved changes in or market reactions to governmentpolicy. Those included restrictions on home purchases in Beijing by nonresidents; the annualmeeting last month of the national legislature; the official end of the one-child policy; andrecent central bank actions.

吳先生列舉的所有原因幾乎都與政府政策的變化、以及市場對政策變化的反應(yīng)有關(guān)。這些包括對非北京居民在北京購房限制的變化;上個月結(jié)束的全國人大;獨生子女政策的正式終結(jié);以及近期的央行行動。

Most wealthy Chinese prefer not to borrow for home purchases, settling the deals in cashinstead. But Mr. Wu said a round of interest rate cuts had made mortgages increasinglyattractive.

大多數(shù)有錢的中國人不喜歡借錢購房，而是喜歡現(xiàn)金交易。不過，吳先生說，幾輪降息已讓抵押貸款變得越來越有吸引力。

“Even very rich people sometimes would not pay the full amount,” he said of this trend. “Theywill take advantage of loans to buy homes.”

“即使非常有錢的人有時也不會付全款，”他講到這一趨勢時說。“他們會利用貸款來購買住房。”

Still, some economists doubt the recent rally can be sustained for much longer.

不過，一些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的近期升溫能持續(xù)更長的時間表示懷疑。

Zhao Yang, the chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, pointed to the huge supply ofhomes either still under construction or completed but unsold. He calculates that floor spaceunder construction is enough to supply more than six years’ worth of sales.

野村證券(香港)的首席中國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家趙陽指出，仍有大量的已建成但尚未售出、或在建的房屋的庫存。他的計算表明，在建的建筑面積足夠供應(yīng)六年以上的銷售。

“The sector still faces long-term destocking pressures,” Mr. Zhao wrote Monday in an email.

“房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)仍長期面臨著去庫存的壓力，”趙陽周一在一封電子郵件中寫道。

A turnaround in the government’s policy stance is also a factor, as it seeks to limit the riskthat the market could deflate in a messy fashion.

政府政策立場的改變也是一個因素，政府在尋求降低房市可能以混亂的方式崩潰的風(fēng)險。

“During this round of price surge, there are signs of bubble factors,” Mr. Zhao wrote. “Thegovernment has started to roll out policies to rein in the increase of housing prices.”

“這輪漲價潮中也有泡沫因素的跡象，”趙陽寫道。“政府已經(jīng)開始推出政策來遏制房價的上升。”