特朗普想讓美國奉行孤立主義

The damage a President Trump could do to theAmerican republic is thankfully limited. A presidentis not a king. There are laws and a court to enforcethem. There is Congress to block him. If a presidentbreaks the law, he can be impeached. America maybecome a more intolerant and chaotic place underDonald Trump, but thanks to its institutions therepublic will survive.

謝天謝地，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)當選為總統(tǒng)對美利堅共和國的破壞將是有限的?？偨y(tǒng)不是國王。他們會受到法律和法庭的限制，而且還有國會的掣肘。如果總統(tǒng)違法，他可能受到彈劾。在特朗普的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，美國可能成為一個更加偏狹和混亂之地，但得益于其制度，美利堅共和國將會存活下來。

The world is a different matter. The president enjoys his or her greatest power in foreign policy.His power to use force is well known. As important, though, is what he can choose not to do. Hecan unilaterally refuse to defend an ally. He can choose to strike a bargain with Russiainstead of deterring it. He can pull out of a trade deal. There are fewer checks and balances.Damage done in one year may never be undone.

全世界的情況則有所不同。美國總統(tǒng)在外交政策上的權(quán)力最大。他動用武力的權(quán)力眾所周知。然而，同樣重要的是，他可以選擇不做什么。他可以單方面拒絕捍衛(wèi)盟友。他可以選擇與俄羅斯達成協(xié)議而非威懾。他可以退出貿(mào)易協(xié)定。美國帶來的制衡作用將會減弱。一年的破壞就可能永遠難以消除。

A Trump administration would pose the greatest shock to international peace and stabilitysince the 1930s. This is not because Mr Trump would invade other countries but because hewould unilaterally liquidate the liberal international order that presidents have built anddefended since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. If the word “isolationist” has any meaning, hequalifies as one.

特朗普政府對國際和平和穩(wěn)定的沖擊將會是上世紀30年代以來最大的。這不是因為特朗普將會入侵其他國家，而是因為他將會單方面地瓦解自富蘭克林•德拉諾•羅斯福(Franklin Delano Roosevelt)起美國歷任總統(tǒng)創(chuàng)建和捍衛(wèi)的國際自由秩序。如果“孤立主義者”這個單詞有意義的話，他就是一個孤立主義者。

Mr Trump has a coherent and consistent worldview that dates back almost 30 years when hespent $95,000 on a full-page advertisement in the New York Times to publish an open letter tothe American people on US foreign policy. It was this worldview that he described to theWashington Post editorial board on Monday. It appears in virtually every interview andspeech he has given about world affairs since the 1980s.

特朗普擁有一套連貫一致的世界觀，其痕跡可以追溯至近30年前，當時他拿出9.5萬美元在《紐約時報》(NewYork Times)刊登了一整版廣告，向美國民眾發(fā)表關(guān)于美國外交政策的公開信。他在本周一向《華盛頓郵報》(Washington Post)的編委描述了這種世界觀。實際上自上世紀80年代以來，他在幾乎每場關(guān)于世界事務(wù)的采訪和演講中都闡述了這種世界觀。

Simply put, Mr Trump thinks America’s allies and partners are ripping it off and he wants out ofAmerica’s leadership role in the international order. Over and over again, Mr Trump hasquestioned why the US defends Japan, South Korea, Germany and other nations without beingpaid for it. Just this week, he promised to significantly diminish US involvement in Nato andwhen asked if America “gained anything” from having bases in east Asia he replied “personally Idon’t think so”. This is not about a more equitable share of the burden, which many have calledfor. Mr Trump believes that the US gains little from having allies unless it is paid handsomelypaid by them.

簡言之，特朗普認為美國的盟友和合作伙伴在敲美國的“竹杠”，他希望美國退出國際秩序中的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)角色。特朗普一次次地質(zhì)問，為何美國要不計報酬地捍衛(wèi)日本、韓國、德國以及其他國家?就在本周，他承諾大幅削減美國在北約的參與，而且在被問及美國是否從東亞的基地“獲得什么”的時候，他回答稱“我個人認為沒有”。這不是像許多人呼吁的那樣更加公平地分擔責任。特朗普相信，美國幾乎沒有從結(jié)盟中受益，除非盟友們支付豐厚報酬。

He also opposes every trade deal America has signed over the past 30 years. He wants to usetariffs and other protectionist measures to bludgeon other countries into accepting lopsidedagreements that disproportionately benefit the US. He has suggested charging other countriesfor use of the sea lanes. Under his presidency, the open global economy would slam shut.

他還反對美國在過去30年簽署的所有貿(mào)易協(xié)定。他希望動用關(guān)稅和其他保護主義措施來強迫其他國家接受讓美國從中極大受益的不對稱協(xié)議。他提議對其他使用航路的國家收取費用。如果他擔任美國總統(tǒng)，開放的全球經(jīng)濟將砰然關(guān)閉。

As he shuns America’s allies, Mr Trump would seek to strike deals with Vladimir Putin,president of Russia, and other authoritarian strong men. Mr Trump has received Mr Putin’sendorsement and has called for much better relations with Russia.

在避開美國盟友的同時，特朗普會尋求和俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)等專制的政治強人領(lǐng)袖達成協(xié)議。特朗普已經(jīng)得到了普京的支持，并呼吁大力改善美俄關(guān)系。

Meanwhile, to deal with threats to the American homeland, Mr Trump has promised his ownChechnya-style scorched-earth policy of targeting civilians and using torture.

同時，為了應(yīng)對美國國土的威脅，特朗普承諾實施他的車臣式焦土政策——把平民列為打擊目標，并使用酷刑。

Some think that Mr Trump will moderate these positions if he is elected, but it is unlikely thata 70-year old who has held these views for decades and probably views himself as a prophetwill abandon them at exactly the moment he feels vindicated and empowered.

有些人認為，當選后特朗普的這些立場會有所緩和，但一個數(shù)十年來都抱著這些想法，并且很可能把自己看成先知的70歲的人，不太可能在他感到自己被證明有理而且掌握權(quán)力的那一刻放棄這些想法。

The day after his election, allies in Europe and Asia will rightly worry if their securityrelationship with the US remains intact. Russia and China will have an unprecedentedopportunity to achieve in a single presidential term what they thought would take decades,namely the destruction of the US-led alliance system.

在他當選之后，美國在歐洲和亞洲的盟友完全有理由擔憂它們與美國的安全合作關(guān)系是否還能保持原樣。俄羅斯和中國將獲得一個史無前例的機會在一屆總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)完成它們此前認為需要花數(shù)十年才能實現(xiàn)的目標——即摧毀美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的同盟體系。

These are the true stakes of the 2016 election. The campaign will be unlike any other as thefundamental pillars of post-second world war American foreign policy are put up for debate.Hillary Clinton, the probable Democrat nominee, might be synonymous with theestablishment, but her destiny is clear. It is to explain why an open and liberal internationalorder benefits ordinary Americans. It is to show how the closing of the global economy, the endof alliances and dawning of an authoritarian age poses as great a threat to American interestsnow as it did in the late 1940s when the architecture of US leadership was created.

這是2016年的美國大選真正關(guān)系重大的地方。這場大選不同于其他任何一場，因為美國二戰(zhàn)后外交政策的核心成為了辯論的焦點。很可能會成為民主黨總統(tǒng)候選人的希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)或許是建制派的代名詞，但她的使命很清楚。那就是解釋為何自由開放的國際秩序讓普通美國人受益，向他們展示國際經(jīng)濟的封閉、同盟的瓦解，以及威權(quán)時代的到來對美國利益威脅之大將不亞于上世紀40年代末由美國扮演領(lǐng)導(dǎo)角色的架構(gòu)剛建立的時候。

The international order can survive many things — terrorist attacks, Russian aggression,Chinese revisionism and an international financial crisis — but the collapse of Americanleadership may prove a disaster too far.

國際秩序能夠經(jīng)受住許多東西的侵襲——恐怖主義襲擊、俄羅斯的侵略、中國的修正主義和一場國際金融危機——但美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位的崩塌很可能會被證明是一場破壞性過大的災(zāi)難。