誰(shuí)將入主唐寧街?

Britain’s Strange Election

誰(shuí)將入主唐寧街?

LONDON — This is a curious election for anyone who cares about Britain. If David Cameron, the Conservative prime minister, is returned to office, the country will face a referendum in 2017 that could take the United Kingdom out of the European Union and into strategic irrelevance. Two years will be lost to a paralyzing debate in which the worst of anti-European British bigotry will have free rein.

倫敦——對(duì)于心系英國(guó)的人而言，此次選舉真是非比尋常。假如來(lái)自保守黨的現(xiàn)任首相戴維·卡梅倫(David Cameron)得以連任，那么英國(guó)將面臨2017年公決的前景，而這次的公決可能會(huì)讓聯(lián)合王國(guó)退出歐盟，淪落到在戰(zhàn)略上無(wú)關(guān)緊要的境地。兩年的時(shí)間也將被浪費(fèi)到毫無(wú)成效的辯論上，其間會(huì)任由最為極端的英式反歐偏執(zhí)情緒肆虐泛濫。

If Ed Miliband, the Labour Party leader, becomes prime minister, he will have in some form to rely on the support of the surging Scottish National Party (S.N.P.), which wants to break up Britain. Miliband vows that he will not succumb to the whims of Nicola Sturgeon, the S.N.P. leader, but this is a man whose determination to reach Downing Street has already seen the political equivalent of fratricide. His promises should be viewed in that cold light.

假如工黨黨魁埃德·米利班德(Ed Miliband)成為新首相，他將不得不在一定程度上依靠人氣急升的蘇格蘭民族黨(Scottish National Party)的支持，而后者希望英國(guó)分裂。米利班德發(fā)誓，自己不會(huì)屈從于蘇格蘭民族黨黨魁尼古拉·斯特金(Nicola Sturgeon)的奇想。不過(guò)，為了入主唐寧街，他可是在政治上不啻于跨過(guò)了兄弟的尸體。此人的承諾，當(dāng)以冷眼觀之。

Pay your money and take your pick: a Britain outside Europe or a rump Britain. Of course, it’s not that simple. Cameron could prevail in his muddled attempt to keep the country in Europe while “repatriating” greater, as yet unspecified powers from Brussels. He may control the malign little-England genie he’s let out of the bottle to appease the right of his Tory party. Miliband may be able to make use of the S.N.P. without becoming its hostage. The worst is not inevitable.

納了稅的人們，可要好好選：是要一個(gè)游離于歐洲之外的不列顛，還是要一個(gè)四分五裂的不列顛?當(dāng)然，現(xiàn)實(shí)并沒(méi)有這么簡(jiǎn)單。或許，卡梅倫能夠從他的混亂嘗試中成功地理出頭緒，把英國(guó)留在歐洲的同時(shí)，從布魯塞爾手中“拿回”更大的權(quán)力——盡管其具體含義并不明朗。或許，他也能夠?qū)⑿皭旱男∮⒏裉m惡魔再收回瓶中，雖然這是他親手放出來(lái)的，以安撫旗下的保守黨右翼?；蛟S，米利班德能夠在不被蘇格蘭民族黨挾持的情況下好好對(duì)其加以利用。最糟糕的情形并非不可避免。

Still, these unhappy choices point to an uneasy and divided Britain. Cameron has overseen an economic recovery that is the envy of continental Europe. Unemployment is at its lowest rate in several years. Jobless French and Spanish youths flock to Britain to find work. The prime minister has steadied the ship.

雖說(shuō)如此，這些令人不快的選擇揭示出了英國(guó)的不安與分裂。卡梅倫治下，英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，令歐洲大陸國(guó)家艷羨。它目前的失業(yè)率處于幾年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)，吸引了法國(guó)和西班牙的待業(yè)青年紛紛前去尋找工作?？穫惙€(wěn)住了這艘大船。

Very few, however, are partying aboard. The recovery has not translated into a sense of well-being or confidence. Income disparity is growing. Booming, purring London, with its glittering central districts full of bivouacked billionaires excavating ever deeper basements for their staff, has left the rest of the country behind and become a resented symbol of division. The S.N.P. has done very well out of its portrayal, however skewed, of a Tory anti-European England given over to ruthless free enterprise and Mammon.

不過(guò)，可沒(méi)什么人在船上狂歡。經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇并未轉(zhuǎn)變成民眾的富足感或自信心。收入差距在持續(xù)拉大。欣欣向榮、滾滾前行的倫敦有著光鮮照人的中心區(qū)，遍地都是暫居此地的億萬(wàn)富豪，他們紛紛把地下室挖得更深，供自家的服務(wù)人員使用。這樣的倫敦將英國(guó)的其他地方甩在了身后，成為了令人厭惡的社會(huì)分裂象征。蘇格蘭民族黨塑造的英格蘭的形象，是在保守黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下屈服于無(wú)情的自由經(jīng)濟(jì)與拜金主義的反歐洲的英格蘭。盡管這種描述扭曲了事實(shí)，卻令該黨十分成功。

The election on Thursday will be close. A hung parliament, as in 2010, appears likely, with no single party able to command a majority in the 650-seat House of Commons. British politics are taking an Israeli turn. The vote itself is a mere prelude to the real business of coalition building.

周四舉行的選舉將難分伯仲?？葱蝿?shì)，可能會(huì)像2010年那樣形成懸浮議會(huì)，也就是沒(méi)有單一政黨能在擁有650個(gè)席位的議會(huì)下院掌握多數(shù)。英國(guó)政壇在往以色列模式轉(zhuǎn)變：選舉本身不過(guò)是前奏，組建聯(lián)盟才是重頭戲。

Most polls show the Conservatives with a slight lead, gaining about 35 percent of the vote and perhaps 275 seats, with Labour at 34 percent and about 267 seats. The phenomenon of the election seems certain to be a big S.N.P. jump to as many as 50 seats from the party’s current six, as if the rejection in last year’s referendum on Scottish independence merely freed the Scots to vote their heart without suffering the consequences.

多數(shù)民調(diào)顯示，保守黨略微領(lǐng)先，可能贏得35%左右的選票和275個(gè)席位，而工黨則可能贏得34%左右的選票和267個(gè)席位?？雌饋?lái)，此次選舉中的大事必然要?dú)w到蘇格蘭民族黨的大幅躥升之上。它目前占據(jù)6席，這次也許能奪得至多50席。蘇格蘭獨(dú)立一事去年在公投中遭到的否決，似乎反而讓蘇格蘭人敞開(kāi)心扉地投票，而不去計(jì)較什么后果。

Because the S.N.P. might cooperate with Labour but not with the Tories, Miliband may be in a stronger position than Cameron to form a government. The far-right U.K. Independence Party, whose influence on Cameron’s politics has been significant, will not, it seems, get more than four or five seats. The Liberal Democrats, who have governed with the Conservatives without their allegiance becoming irreversible, will take most of the rest, but many fewer than in 2010.

由于蘇格蘭民族黨愿與工黨而非保守黨合作，在組閣問(wèn)題上，米利班德也許占據(jù)了比卡梅倫更有利的位置。極右翼的英國(guó)獨(dú)立黨 (U.K.Independence Party)對(duì)卡梅倫的政治影響力一直不容小覷，但這次似乎不會(huì)得到比四五席更好的成績(jī)。目前與保守黨聯(lián)合組閣的自由民主黨(Liberal Democrats)并未讓這一聯(lián)盟變得不可逆轉(zhuǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)將拿下剩余席位中的大多數(shù)，不過(guò)成績(jī)要比2010年的時(shí)候大為遜色。

Cameron has led an odd campaign, so lusterless and absent at times that he could not even remember the name of his own football team. When he has found his voice, it has been in the name of free enterprise, as when he told a gathering of chartered accountants his was the party of the “techies, the roof tilers, the retailers, the plumbers, the builders” and vowed that what pumped him up was “taking a risk, having a punt!”

卡梅倫的競(jìng)選活動(dòng)相當(dāng)奇怪，不時(shí)陷入沉悶至極、心不在焉的狀況，就連他自己喜歡的足球隊(duì)的名字都會(huì)想不起來(lái)。他煥發(fā)生機(jī)的時(shí)候，總是為自由經(jīng)濟(jì)正名的時(shí)候。比方說(shuō)，他告訴一群注冊(cè)會(huì)計(jì)師，自己領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的政黨為“技術(shù)人員、磚瓦工、零售商、水管工和建筑工人”代言，并且誓言稱讓自己鼓足干勁的是“承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，放手一搏”的思維。

Beyond that, however, it’s anyone’s guess what Cameron really believes in. His gamble with European Union membership has been reckless and unpardonable. As yet, he has not given a single credible account of what it is he wants from Europe or why he has promised a referendum. In so doing, he has put Britain’s future at risk.

不過(guò)，除此之外，誰(shuí)也說(shuō)不準(zhǔn)卡梅倫到底相信些什么。他在英國(guó)的歐盟成員國(guó)身份上玩的把戲?qū)崒亵斆?，不可原諒。到目前為止，他沒(méi)有給出哪怕是一次可信的說(shuō)法，闡明自己到底想從歐洲得到些什么，或是他承諾要進(jìn)行公投的具體理由。這種做法，是拿英國(guó)的未來(lái)賭博。

Miliband is a work in progress but his instincts are right. He will not hold a referendum on Europe. Beginning with his determination to abolish the non-domicile rule that, after the payment of an annual fee, permits many of Britain’s richest permanent residents to avoid paying U.K. tax on their worldwide income, he has shown an understanding that something must change to rebalance British society.

米利班德的政見(jiàn)尚未成型，不過(guò)他的直覺(jué)是正確的。他不會(huì)在脫歐問(wèn)題上推動(dòng)公投。他的起點(diǎn)是下決心廢除“領(lǐng)外稅收法令”。根據(jù)這一規(guī)則，只要交上一筆年費(fèi)，英國(guó)最富裕的永久居民中的許多人，便無(wú)需就世界范圍內(nèi)的收入向英國(guó)繳納所得稅。通過(guò)這樣的議程，米利班德顯示出，他明白，為了讓英國(guó)社會(huì)重新取得平衡，必須進(jìn)行變革。

He has lambasted the “idea that says anything goes for those at the top, that what is good for the very rich is always good for Britain.” This disquiet over a money-driven culture is shared by a majority of the still-united British people. Miliband may prove the unlikely standard-bearer of that sentiment, all the way to Downing Street.

對(duì)于“聲稱一切歸于最上層、有利于大富豪就總是有利于英國(guó)的觀點(diǎn)”，他大加鞭撻。這種對(duì)金錢(qián)驅(qū)動(dòng)的文化的不安，引發(fā)了仍團(tuán)結(jié)在一起的英國(guó)民眾中的大多數(shù)人的共鳴。也許事實(shí)將證明，盡管出人意料，但米利班德會(huì)是引領(lǐng)這種情緒的旗手，最終入主唐寧街。