中國重工業(yè)意外大幅下滑

HONG KONG — As demand dwindles, steel prices inChina have fallen 12 percent in the first five weeks ofthis year, almost as much as in all of 2014.

香港——隨著需求的減少，中國鋼材價(jià)格在今年的頭五周下降了12%，幾乎相當(dāng)于2014年全年的降幅。

The tonnage of China’s imports of rubber, oil, ironore and other industrial materials also fell sharply inJanuary. And the global market for bulk freightercharters is in free fall, already below levels in theworst days of the global financial crisis in late 2008and early 2009.

今年1月，中國橡膠、石油、鐵礦石及其他工業(yè)材料的進(jìn)口量也急劇下降。全球散貨船包租市場一落千丈，已經(jīng)跌至2008年底2009年初全球金融危機(jī)期間，最糟糕的水平之下。

 

 

”In the past two months, it has been more or less a vertical correction, and this is a proxy forChina,” said Basil M. Karatzas, a Manhattan ship broker.

曼哈頓的船舶經(jīng)紀(jì)人巴西勒·M·卡拉察斯(Basil M. Karatzas)說，“過去兩個(gè)月有些像是直線下降，這反映了中國的情況。”

Heavy industry in the country, the world’s second-largest economy, is experiencing a muchsharper downturn than was apparent or expected even several weeks ago. That slowdownseems to be mirrored to a lesser extent in other sectors. But the full scope of China’seconomic weakness is obscured by limited data, as the country prepares for a nationwide,weeklong holiday beginning Feb. 18, in observance of the Lunar New Year.

中國是世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，中國重工業(yè)的下滑程度，比幾周前顯示的情況或預(yù)期的情況都要糟糕。這種放緩似乎在其他領(lǐng)域也有較小程度的體現(xiàn)。但由于中國正在準(zhǔn)備迎接從2月18日開始的長達(dá)一周的全國假日，以慶祝春節(jié)，因而數(shù)據(jù)有限，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)走軟的總體情況并不明確。

”It’s too early to be saying we’re moving toward disaster, but there’s nothing in this data to becheery about,” said Louis Kuijs, the chief China economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)首席中國經(jīng)濟(jì)師高路易(Louis Kuijs)說，“現(xiàn)在說我們正在走向?yàn)?zāi)難還為時(shí)過早，但這些數(shù)據(jù)不怎么令人高興。”

Following its standard practice, China’s National Bureau of Statistics will not release a widerange of monthly economic statistics for January — a month in which the timing of the LunarNew Year, from late January to mid-February, can distort figures. So investors, businessexecutives and others will get only limited, partial figures on industrial production, real estateinvestment, retail sales and other crucial barometers until mid-March, when figures for all ofJanuary and February are scheduled to be released.

按照慣例，中國國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局不會全面公布1月份的各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。1月時(shí)春節(jié)即將到來，這種情況會對數(shù)據(jù)產(chǎn)生扭曲。因此，投資者、企業(yè)高管及其他人在3月中旬之前，只能看到有關(guān)工業(yè)生產(chǎn)、房地產(chǎn)投資、零售銷售和其他關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)的有限的部分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)。1月和2月的全部數(shù)據(jù)將于3月中旬發(fā)布。

The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, signaled its concern last week when itunexpectedly cut the proportion of assets that banks must hold as reserves, freeing them tolend about $100 billion to businesses and consumers. The reserve requirement had not beencut since 2012.

中國的央行中國人民銀行上周發(fā)出了擔(dān)憂的信號，出人意料地降低了銀行必須作為儲備而持有資產(chǎn)的比例，釋放了1000億美元(約6000億元人民幣)的資金，為銀行向企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者發(fā)放貸款提供了空間。這是自2012年以來，央行首次下調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率。

China’s General Administration of Customs released trade data on Sunday that showed a slightdip in exports. Imports plunged, although that was partly because the effect of falling tonnagesof key commodities was compounded considerably by lower commodity prices.

中國海關(guān)總署周日公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，出口額略有下降，進(jìn)口額大幅下降。進(jìn)口額降幅巨大的部分原因在于，關(guān)鍵大宗商品進(jìn)口量下降的同時(shí)，這些商品價(jià)格也顯著降低了。

The statistics agency plans to release inflation data Tuesday morning in Beijing. Producerprices have been falling faster and faster since last July, partly because of lower commodityprices, and are expected to be down close to 4 percent in January compared with a year earlier.Consumer prices have nearly stopped rising.

國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局計(jì)劃周二上午在北京公布通脹數(shù)據(jù)。去年7月以來，生產(chǎn)物價(jià)的下降也越來越快，其部分原因是大宗商品價(jià)格下降，根據(jù)預(yù)期1月的生產(chǎn)物價(jià)同比將下降近4%。消費(fèi)物價(jià)幾乎已經(jīng)停止上漲。

Some businesses selling consumer products are complaining of weak sales this winter. “Ourbusiness has slowed down in recent months; I think it has to do with the overall economicslowdown in China, as well as internationally,” said Fred Zhang, the sales manager at theQingdao Oulang Hair Product Company, a small maker of wigs in Qingdao.

有些出售消費(fèi)品的企業(yè)抱怨，今年冬季銷售情況不景氣。青島小型假發(fā)制造商青島歐朗發(fā)制品有限公司的銷售經(jīng)理弗雷德·張說，“最近幾個(gè)月，我們的業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)放緩了，我認(rèn)為這與中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體走軟有關(guān)。”

China has many tools to halt a slowdown, although all of them have potentially undesirableside effects. The banking system is still under tight central government control and can be toldto step up lending further. Overall credit, though, has already grown faster as a share ofeconomic output since 2009 than practically anywhere except Ireland. Some restrictions onhousing market speculation have been lifted, at the risk of making homes more expensive.

中國有許多可以阻止經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的工具，不過都有潛在的副作用。銀行系統(tǒng)仍然被中央政府嚴(yán)格控制，政府可能會命令銀行進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大貸款規(guī)模。然而，2009年以來，中國總信貸在經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出中所占比例的增長速度，其實(shí)已經(jīng)超過了除愛爾蘭之外的所有經(jīng)濟(jì)體。一些旨在遏制房地產(chǎn)市場投機(jī)的限制政策已經(jīng)取消，盡管這樣有抬高房價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

A slowdown in home construction and car sales has contributed to trouble in the steel and ironore sectors and in the energy sector. The tonnage of iron ore imports is down 9.3 percent inJanuary from a year ago, while the tonnage of imports of refined products like gasoline anddiesel was down 37.6 percent.

房屋建設(shè)和汽車銷售的放緩，給煉鋼和鐵礦石行業(yè)，以及能源領(lǐng)域帶來了困難。1月，鐵礦石進(jìn)口總量同比下降9.3%，而汽油和柴油等精煉石油產(chǎn)品的進(jìn)口總量也下降了37.6%。

Some of the slowdown in industrial commodity imports last month may reflect that manyChinese companies built above-average stockpiles last autumn as prices were falling, and nowfind themselves with scant room to store more. They also face losses on their earlierpurchases, as prices have continued to drop.

上個(gè)月，工業(yè)用大宗商品進(jìn)口的某些放緩跡象或許反映出，去年秋天價(jià)格下跌時(shí)，許多中國企業(yè)都積累了高于平均水平的庫存，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)沒有多少空間儲存更多了。由于價(jià)格持續(xù)下降，它們過去采購的商品也可能會造成損失。

In the iron ore sector last autumn, “they bought every single cargo, and they were able to buyat lower and lower prices,” said Jeffrey Landsberg, a commodity analyst and managingdirector of Commodore Research & Consultancy in New York.

大宗商品分析師、紐約Commodore研究與咨詢公司的董事總經(jīng)理杰弗里·蘭茲伯格(Jeffrey Landsberg)說，去年秋季，在鐵礦石部門，“它們買下了每一批貨，而且還能以越來越低的價(jià)格買進(jìn)。”

With the purchases slowing, ship charters have slowed to a crawl. Large freighters that cost$8,000 to $9,000 a day to operate, plus $20,000 or more a day in interest payments andother ownership costs, are now leasing for about $4,000.

隨著采購的步調(diào)放緩，包租船只的業(yè)務(wù)也幾近停滯。大型貨船每天的運(yùn)營成本在8000到9000美元，再加上超過2萬美元的利息以及其他成本，但現(xiàn)在的租金只有大約4000美元。

The daily cost to charter a so-called capesize freighter, a large ship particularly used to supplyChina, has fallen fastest of all, down 75 percent since mid-November.

在所有船型中，包租海岬型船每天所需的花費(fèi)降得最快，自11月中旬以來降了75%。這種大型貨船經(jīng)常被用來給中國運(yùn)貨。

“It’s pretty grim at the moment,” said Tim Huxley, the chief executive of Wah Kwong MaritimeTransport, a large Hong Kong shipping line. “The bulk carrier market is at the lowest it hasbeen in 30 years.”

“目前的情況非常糟糕，”香港大型航運(yùn)公司華光海運(yùn)控股有限公司(Wah Kwong Maritime TransportHoldings)的首席執(zhí)行官蒂莫西·赫胥黎(Timothy Huxley)說。“散裝貨輪市場目前處在30年來的最低點(diǎn)。”