International trade data could show whether anybody else in the world is ready to replace the U. S.consumer as a global growth engine.
The Census Bureau is due to release March trade data on Tuesday. Economists, on average, think the U.S.recorded yet another trade deficit and that the gap widened to$29.7 billion from a surprising 10-year low of$26 billion in February.
Since imports subtract from gross domestic product and exports add to it, a smaller trade gap-fewer imports and more exports-is generally good for the economy.
February's relatively skinny deficit-which was less than half the size of the gap in October 2008—was driven partly by falling oil imports and an unexpected surge in exports.
Unfortunately, both developments were probably short-lived. Oil imports likely rose thanks to rising prices, and many economists think a months-long trend of weaker demand for U.S.exports will reassert itself.Recovery in other corners of the globe is expected to lag behind the U.S..
The first step of that process seems to be happening—U. S.consumers are more cautious-but it is unclear who will take up their slack.
China is the hope of many economists-particularly now, as it is blessed with a$585 billion fiscal stimulus package that is among the world's largest. Already U.S.companies such as Caterpillar and General Motors say they are benefiting from stronger Chinese spending.However, The impact of this demand remains to be seen.
國際貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)可以顯示出,世界上是否有人能取代美國消費者成為全球經(jīng)濟增長的引擎。
美國統(tǒng)計局預(yù)定星期二(5月12日)發(fā)布3月的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們普遍認(rèn)為美國面臨又一個貿(mào)易赤字記錄,貿(mào)易逆差將從2月份驚人的260億美元這個十年最低點擴大到297億美元。
因為進口會從國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值中減去,而出口要加到其中。所以,以減少進口增加出口形成較小的貿(mào)易赤字是有利于經(jīng)濟的。
2月份的貿(mào)易赤字相對減少,還不到2008年10月貿(mào)易赤字的一半,這在很大程度上是因為石油進口量下降和出口的意外猛增。
遺憾的是,這兩個事態(tài)的發(fā)展可能是曇花一現(xiàn)。石油進口量可能由于價格上漲而增加,許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認(rèn)為持續(xù)數(shù)月疲軟的需求將使美國的出口難以支撐。全球其他地方的經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇預(yù)計將落后于美國。
改變的第一步似乎將要發(fā)生,美國消費者越來越謹(jǐn)慎,可還不清楚誰將擔(dān)負(fù)起他們的頹勢。
中國是許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的希望,尤其是現(xiàn)在。中國得天獨厚地開出5850億美元的財政刺激政策,這在世界各國中是最多的,比如,卡特彼勒和通用汽車等美國公司稱他們正受益于中國日益龐大的支出。然而,這一需求的影響力仍然有待觀察。
實戰(zhàn)提升
核心單詞
deficit['defisit]n.不足額;赤字
gap[g?p]n.豁口;裂口;v.造成縫隙;豁開
surge[s?:d?]v./n.高漲;澎湃
caution['k?:??n]n.小心,謹(jǐn)慎;v.警告;勸告
財經(jīng)知識一點通
疲軟市場(soft market)
指供給需求過度有限的市場。在市場疲軟過程中,證券市場行情走低、交易清淡,買賣報價差距很大,任何賣出都可能導(dǎo)致價格下跌。
財政政策(fiscal policy)
是指國家根據(jù)一定時期政治、經(jīng)濟、社會發(fā)展的任務(wù)所規(guī)定的財政工作的指導(dǎo)原則,通過財政支出與稅收政策來調(diào)節(jié)總需求。增加政府支出,可以刺激總需求,從而增加國民收入;反之則壓抑總需求,減少國民收入。
翻譯練習(xí)
lnternational trade data could show whether anybody else in the world is ready to replace the U. S.consumer as a global growth engine.
Unfortunately, both developments were probably short-lived.
Recovery in other corners of the globe is expected to lag behind the U. S..