煤炭產(chǎn)量下降使美國(guó)食品價(jià)格下降

煤炭產(chǎn)量下降使美國(guó)食品價(jià)格下降

The collapse of the American coal industry is having major benefits for the nation's health, but it's also having a less-heralded effect: it's boosting crop yields and making food prices cheaper.

美國(guó)煤炭工業(yè)的崩潰對(duì)國(guó)家的健康有很大的好處，但它也有一個(gè)不那么明顯的影響:它提高了農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量，降低了食品價(jià)格。

Coal burning is a major contributor to air pollution, which causes an estimated 3-9 million deaths a year worldwide. Among the pollutants are nitrogen oxides, particularly from coal plants, which react in sunlight with other molecules to produce ozone. Although the shield of all life on Earth in the stratosphere, close-to-ground-level ozone is harmful both to animals and plants, accounting for an estimated 90 percent of air pollution's effects on crop yields.

煤炭燃燒是造成空氣污染的主要原因之一，據(jù)估計(jì)，全球每年有300萬(wàn)至900萬(wàn)人死于空氣污染。污染物中有氮氧化物，特別是來(lái)自燃煤電廠的氮氧化物，它在陽(yáng)光下與其他分子發(fā)生反應(yīng)，產(chǎn)生臭氧。盡管臭氧是地球上所有生命的保護(hù)層，但近地面的臭氧對(duì)動(dòng)植物都是有害的，估計(jì)占空氣污染對(duì)農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量影響的90%。

Stephen Luntz

The damaging effect of low-atmosphere ozone on human lungs has been incorporated into estimates of pollution's costs, but the impact on crops has been largely ignored. A paper in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics sets out to address this, examining the benefits of declining ozone on two of America's largest crops as coal use declined from 2003-2013.

低大氣臭氧對(duì)人類肺部的破壞作用已被納入污染成本的估算，但對(duì)農(nóng)作物的影響基本上被忽視了。《美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)雜志》上的一篇論文著手解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題，研究了隨著2003年至2013年煤炭使用量的下降，臭氧對(duì)美國(guó)兩大農(nóng)作物的影響。

Inevitably the picture varies by location – some farms are still exposed to as much ozone as they ever were, while others were always too far away to be affected much. However, by combining the entire farm belt, first author Dr Konstantinos Metaxoglou of MIT concludes corn yields rose 2.5 percent as a result of coal plant closures, while soybean production increased 1.6 percent.

不可避免的是，不同地區(qū)的情況有所不同——一些農(nóng)場(chǎng)仍然暴露在與以往一樣多的臭氧下，而另一些農(nóng)場(chǎng)總是離得太遠(yuǎn)，不會(huì)受到太大影響。然而，通過(guò)結(jié)合整個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)，第一作者、麻省理工學(xué)院的康斯坦丁諾斯·梅塔索格魯博士得出結(jié)論，關(guān)閉燃煤電廠導(dǎo)致玉米產(chǎn)量增加2.5%，大豆產(chǎn)量增加1.6%。

Those sound like small effects, but the scale of these crops means the economy benefited by $1.6 billion every year. Plenty more coal plants have shut down since the end of Metaxoglou's study period, so must now be considerably larger.

這些影響聽(tīng)起來(lái)很小，但這些作物的規(guī)模意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)每年受益16億美元。自從Metaxoglou的研究期結(jié)束以來(lái)，已經(jīng)有更多的燃煤電廠關(guān)閉，所以現(xiàn)在肯定要大得多。

Corn farmers downwind of shuttered power stations gained 7 percent in production and would have been the prime beneficiaries. However, Metaxoglou calculates overall the falling prices caused by the increased supply meant farmers actually lost money. Consumers, however, now had access to cheaper food.

在關(guān)閉的發(fā)電廠下風(fēng)處種植玉米的農(nóng)民的產(chǎn)量增加了7%，他們將是主要的受益者。然而，Metaxoglou計(jì)算出，供應(yīng)增加導(dǎo)致的價(jià)格下跌實(shí)際上意味著農(nóng)民損失了錢。然而，消費(fèi)者現(xiàn)在可以買到更便宜的食物。

Corn and soy are included in so many processed foods, far beyond the obvious tortillas and tofu, that the effect would be exceptionally dispersed. Consumers wouldn't have noticed the fall (or slower rise) in the price of their groceries as a result of this effect, but that doesn't mean it wasn't there every time they reached the till.

玉米和大豆被包含在如此多的加工食品中，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了顯而易見(jiàn)的玉米餅和豆腐，以至于其影響將被特別分散。由于這種影響，消費(fèi)者不會(huì)注意到食品價(jià)格的下跌(或緩慢上漲)，但這并不意味著他們每次到收銀臺(tái)時(shí)都能看到這種情況。

“Our findings show that reducing NOx and other harmful emissions from power plants is beneficial not only for human health, but also for agriculture production,” Metaxoglou said in an emailed statement.

Metaxoglou在一份電子郵件聲明中說(shuō):“我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)表明，減少發(fā)電廠的氮氧化物和其他有害排放不僅有利于人類健康，也有利于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)。”

Around half of coal's decline has been from competition with gas, but the other half is a result of rising solar and wind production. Opponents of climate action love to bemoan the effect of renewable energy subsidies on poorer consumers' electricity bills, but all that cost and more comes back in less obvious ways.

煤炭產(chǎn)量下降的原因中，約有一半來(lái)自與天然氣的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，而另一半則是太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能產(chǎn)量上升的結(jié)果。氣候行動(dòng)的反對(duì)者喜歡抱怨可再生能源補(bǔ)貼對(duì)較貧窮的消費(fèi)者電費(fèi)的影響，但所有這些成本和更多成本都以不那么明顯的方式回來(lái)了。