FT社評：歐盟自由貿(mào)易陣線告急

The forthcoming departure of the UK from the EU will have many adverse consequences for both the leavers and the left. One is the departure of one of the loudest and most consistent voices for free trade within the union.

英國脫離歐盟的時刻即將到來，不管是對離開者，還是對留下者，此事都將造成許多不利后果。其一是歐盟內(nèi)部最響亮、最堅定擁護自由貿(mào)易的發(fā)聲者之一要離開了。

A serious counterweight to habitual protectionists in France, Italy and elsewhere is much to be desired. Although the EU is embarking on a series of bilateral trade agreements with the likes of Mercosur, the South American customs union, as well as Australia and New Zealand, it is also showing disturbing signs of keeping out foreign goods, services and capital.

歐盟內(nèi)部現(xiàn)在亟需一股能與法國、意大利等許多地方的老牌保護主義者相抗衡的力量。雖然歐盟正在與南美關(guān)稅同盟——南方共同市場(Mercosur)等組織以及澳大利亞和新西蘭等國談判一系列的雙邊貿(mào)易協(xié)定，但它也顯示出有意將外國商品、服務(wù)和資本拒之門外等令人不安的跡象。

An early test has come in the form of proposals pushed by Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, for an EU-wide system of screening, and if necessary blocking, takeovers from outside the EU. The rationale is national security, but the mechanism is open to more powerful countries such as France protecting their companies by deterring competitive producers from setting up shop in smaller nations.

一個初步的考驗，就是法國總統(tǒng)埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)倡導(dǎo)的提議。他主張建立一個適用于全歐盟范圍的機制，用于篩查——如有必要還可以阻止——來自歐盟以外的收購。其理由是國家安全，但該機制將令法國等較強大的國家可以通過阻止有競爭力的生產(chǎn)商在小國開展業(yè)務(wù)來保護本國公司。

Finland, a member of the free-trading Nordic bloc that has generally sided with the UK, has correctly pushed back against the proposals, saying they needlessly risk setting off international conflict over trade. On this particular occasion, there is a good chance sense will prevail. A group of peripheral countries including Portugal and Greece, each in need of foreign investment to boost their productive capacity, are joining forces with Nordic countries and the Netherlands to water down the proposals.

實行自由貿(mào)易的北歐國家集團通常與英國站在一條線上，其成員芬蘭正確地反駁了上述提議，稱它們將不必要地帶來引發(fā)國際貿(mào)易沖突的風(fēng)險。在這個特定事件上，理性可能會占上風(fēng)。包括葡萄牙和希臘在內(nèi)的一批外圍國家各個都需要外國投資來提高其生產(chǎn)能力，它們正與北歐國家和荷蘭聯(lián)合起來，以求削弱上述提議。

In the future, however, assembling such coalitions may be more difficult. More usually, the Mediterranean countries, with uncompetitive manufacturing companies to defend from foreign competition, are part of the protectionist faction among the member states.

但未來想組成這樣的聯(lián)盟可能更加困難。一般來說，地中海國家(它們的制造業(yè)企業(yè)缺乏競爭力來應(yīng)對外來競爭)屬于歐盟成員國中的保護主義陣營。

A key moment came in the past couple of years when it became clear that Germany, traditionally the swing voter among the member states on trade issues, was shifting towards the protectionist camp. Berlin has supported, for example, changes to the EU’s trade defence measures such as anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties that will give greater leeway to the EU authorities to tax imports as they see fit.

近幾年中的一個關(guān)鍵時刻是，在貿(mào)易問題上歷來立場不定的德國開始倒向了保護主義陣營。例如，柏林支持改革歐盟的貿(mào)易防御措施，如反傾銷稅和反補貼稅，這些改革將讓歐盟有關(guān)部門有更大的自由對進口商品征稅，只要他們認(rèn)為合適。

And there are issues that go well beyond the traditional subjects of beleaguered manufacturing industries in sectors such as steel, or even newer trade battlegrounds such as solar cell technology. Measures to prevent the cross-border flow of data have proliferated across the EU, retarding or even reversing international trade in services. The EU desperately needs a heavyweight member state prepared to stand up and fight for free flows of data, goods, capital and people.

有一些問題還超出了傳統(tǒng)討論范疇——以往話題主要涉及鋼鐵等處境艱難的制造業(yè)行業(yè)，以及圍繞太陽能電池技術(shù)等更新興的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)場。意在阻止數(shù)據(jù)跨境流動的措施在整個歐盟都出現(xiàn)了激增，阻礙甚至逆轉(zhuǎn)了國際服務(wù)貿(mào)易。歐盟迫切需要一個重量級的成員國挺身而出，為爭取數(shù)據(jù)、商品、資本和人員的自由流動而斗爭。

In the absence of same, the European Commission needs to be very careful about its role. In the investment debate, keen to centralise power it leapt too quickly towards backing an EU-wide screening mechanism.

如果沒有這樣的國家，歐盟委員會(European Commission)必須非常謹(jǐn)慎地對待自己的角色。在關(guān)于投資的爭論中，由于渴望集中權(quán)力，它過于迅速地轉(zhuǎn)向了支持建立一種全歐盟適用的投資篩查機制。

The commission has always had to tread a line between placating both the more protectionist and the more liberalising states. With the UK departing and Germany shifting, that positioning will become more delicate and the risks from erring on the protectionist side will be higher. The commission may pride itself on signing new trade deals around the world, but it also needs to help keep borders open at home.

一直以來，歐盟委員會既要安撫更傾向于保護主義的成員國，也要安撫更奉行自由主義的成員國，它總是不得不在二者之間權(quán)衡。隨著英國退出歐盟以及德國姿態(tài)的轉(zhuǎn)變，歐盟如何選擇立場將變得更加微妙，其偏向保護主義的風(fēng)險將會增加。歐盟委員會可能會以在世界各地簽署新的貿(mào)易協(xié)定而自豪，但它也需要致力于推動歐盟內(nèi)部保持邊界開放。

The EU is striking an optimistic tone on trade and investment. But its confidence belies the fact that some of its initiatives are more to do with restricting trade than expanding it. Activism is not enough. It needs to be animated by the free-market orientation for which the UK and its Nordic allies have traditionally been known.

歐盟在貿(mào)易和投資上發(fā)表了樂觀的論調(diào)。但其信心掩蓋了這樣一個事實，即它的一些舉措更多的與限制而非擴大貿(mào)易有關(guān)。只有行動主義是不夠的。它必須追尋自由市場的方向，以此來激發(fā)自身的活力，英國及其北歐盟友傳統(tǒng)上就是以堅持這一方向著稱。