特朗普的“治國準則”

Nobody can say they were not warned. Donald Trump promised a Muslim visa ban, to put “America first” on trade and nominate conservatives to the Supreme Court. That is what he is doing. He also said he would “wipe out Isis” and build a wall on the Mexico border. Expect announcements on those in the near future. Ditto for big tax cuts and sweeping deregulation. What you see is what you get.

誰也不能說沒有聽到過警告。唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)承諾過要頒發(fā)穆斯林簽證禁令、在貿(mào)易事務(wù)上奉行“美國優(yōu)先”、提名保守派人士擔(dān)任美國最高法院(Supreme Court)的法官。他眼下就在這么做。他還說過，要“消滅伊斯蘭國(ISIS)”，在美國與墨西哥的邊境上修筑一道墻。預(yù)計在不遠的將來他就會宣布這些政策了。當(dāng)然還有大規(guī)模減稅和全面去監(jiān)管化方面的政策。你所見到的，就是你所得到的。

Though he may never have read one, Mr Trump has always been an open book. If you want to prepare for the next four years, you should internalise the Trump manual.

特朗普也許從不看書，但他自己始終就像是一本“打開的書”，讓人易于看透。如果你想要為今后四年做好準備，就應(yīng)該把這本“特朗普手冊”爛熟于心。

The master key is Mr Trump’s management philosophy. Now in his eighth decade, Mr Trump is not about to change how he does business. His first rule is never admit to a mistake. Mr Trump will dig his heels in rather than apologise. Even casual errors will accidentally become formal policy. It is unclear, for example, whether Mr Trump deliberately avoided mentioning Jews in his statement on Holocaust Memorial day. Yet he is now committed to not mentioning them.

其中最為關(guān)鍵的是特朗普的管理哲學(xué)。已跨入人生第8個十年的特朗普并不打算改變他的行事作風(fēng)。他的第一條準則是絕不承認錯誤。特朗普將固執(zhí)己見，而不會道歉。即使是不經(jīng)意間犯下的錯誤，也會意外地成為正式的政策。比如說，特朗普就大屠殺紀念日(Holocaust Memorial day)發(fā)表的聲明中沒有提猶太人，不知道他是否有意為之，但現(xiàn)在他已決心不提他們了。

Making Mexico pay for the border wall may have been a campaign throwaway line. Ensuring it does is now the chief goal of US-Mexico relations. It left Enrique Peña Nieto, Mexico’s president, with little choice but to cancel his Washington trip last week.

讓墨西哥為邊境隔離墻掏腰包也許只是競選期間隨口說的一句話，但現(xiàn)在確保墨西哥會掏錢已成了美墨關(guān)系中的首要目標。為此，墨西哥總統(tǒng)恩里克•培尼亞•涅托(Enrique Peña Nieto)上周只好取消了華盛頓之行。

For Mr Trump, the costs of sticking to a bad policy will almost always be lower than admitting to error.

對特朗普來說，堅持一項壞的政策所需付出的代價，幾乎總是低于承認錯誤的代價。

The second rule is make critics pay. If you cross Mr Trump he will hit back 10 times harder. Since he now occupies the most important bully pulpit in the world, this has consequences — as US government employees are finding out. Last week Mr Trump fired Sally Yates, the acting attorney-general, for declining to argue in court for Mr Trump’s badly drafted temporary ban on issuing visas to citizens from seven Muslim-majority countries. He accused her of betrayal rather than a professional difference of opinion.

特朗普的第二條行事準則是讓批評者付出代價。如果你反對特朗普，他將以十倍的力度回擊。由于他如今占據(jù)著全世界最重要的“天字第一號講壇”(bully pulpit，指白宮——譯者注)，這條準則是會造成后果的——正如美國政府雇員們所看到的。上周，特朗普解雇了代理司法部長薩麗•耶茨(Sally Yates)，原因是她拒絕在法庭上為特朗普下達的禁止向七個穆斯林國家的公民頒發(fā)簽證這條糟糕的臨時禁令辯護。他指責(zé)耶茨背叛，而不是指責(zé)她在專業(yè)上有不同意見。

Mr Trump’s spokesman called on US diplomats to resign rather than register their differences through the State Department’s longstanding “dissent channel”. Pointing out a policy’s weakness is a key duty in any serious government job. Mr Trump has made it clear that he wants cheerleaders not critics.

特朗普的發(fā)言人呼吁美國外交官們辭職，而不是通過美國國務(wù)院(State Department)長期存在的“異見渠道”記錄下他們的異議。在任何嚴肅的政府工作崗位上，指出政策弱點都是一項關(guān)鍵職責(zé)。而特朗普已明確表明，他想要的是啦啦隊長而不是批評者。

Foreign leaders, including Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, should be wary. Mr Trump will not hesitate to escalate when challenged. His administration has already singled out Germany for alleged currency manipulation and lambasted Ms Merkel’s decision to take in Syrian refugees. Ms Merkel is rightly treading with great care.

包括德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)在內(nèi)的外國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都應(yīng)該警惕起來。特朗普一旦受到挑戰(zhàn)，就會毫不猶豫地讓事態(tài)升級。他的政府已經(jīng)把德國列為涉嫌操縱匯率的國家，還猛烈抨擊默克爾接收敘利亞難民的決定。默克爾目前正在極為小心地予以應(yīng)對，她這么做是對的。

Businesses should also beware. Barely 20 minutes after Dennis Muilenburg, Boeing’s chief executive, defended free trade with China, Mr Trump threatened to cancel the deal to build a new Air Force One. Those banking on the US constitution to constrain the president should make a Plan B.

商界也應(yīng)該小心。波音(Boeing)首席執(zhí)行官丹尼斯•米倫伯格(Dennis Muilenburg)為與中國的自由貿(mào)易辯護，20分鐘后，特朗普就威脅要取消制造一架新的“空軍一號”(Air Force One)飛機的協(xié)議。有些人指望依靠美國憲法來限制總統(tǒng)的權(quán)力，他們應(yīng)該制定一項B計劃了。

Mr Trump has made clear he shares Richard Nixon’s view that the president can pick and choose which laws apply to him. From tax audits to eavesdropping, the retaliatory means at Mr Trump’s disposal are vast. The value of whistleblowers has rarely been higher.

特朗普明確表明，他與理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)觀點一致，認為總統(tǒng)可以挑選適用于他的法律。從稅務(wù)稽查到竊聽，特朗普可以使用多種多樣的報復(fù)手段。告密者很少這么有用過。

The third rule is do whatever it takes to promote the brand. If that means bending reality, or coming up with an alternative one, so be it. What works for the Trump business franchise has vastly greater implications as commander-in-chief. The day after Mr Trump’s inauguration, he told CIA employees that it had stopped raining the moment he began speaking. The meteorologists did not agree.

第三條準則是，無所不用其極地推廣自己那張招牌。如果這意味著要歪曲事實，或者提出一個“替代版”事實，那就這么做。在特朗普商業(yè)經(jīng)營中起作用的手段，在他作為美國三軍總司令時影響會大得多。特朗普就職儀式的第二天，他告訴美國中央情報局(CIA)的工作人員，雨在他開口講話的那一刻停了。氣象學(xué)家們可不同意這一點。

He also personally called the head of the National Parks Service to instruct him to delete a tweet showing unfavourable side-by-side photos of the thin crowds at his inauguration versus the overflow at Barack Obama’s. It was duly taken down.

他還親自給美國國家公園管理局(National Parks Service)負責(zé)人打電話，指示他刪除Twitter上的一條帖子，帖子中并排顯示兩張形成強烈反差的照片——特朗普就職儀式參加者稀稀拉拉，而巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的就職儀式則人滿為患。對方依言而行。

These are relatively minor issues. But how will Mr Trump react when government scientists issue their next report on global warming? What will he do when the Bureau of Labor Statistics announces a rise in unemployment? We have yet to digest the enormity of Mr Trump’s waywardness with facts. They say the first casualty of war is the truth. In an age of cyber war, truth is a primary target. When your enemy’s objective is to sow confusion, it is doubly important America’s president has sufficient credibility to refute lies. It is a national security imperative.

這些相對而言是小事。但在政府科學(xué)家發(fā)布下一份全球變暖報告時，特朗普會作何反應(yīng)?如果美國勞工統(tǒng)計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)公布失業(yè)率上升，他會怎么做?我們還沒有完全理解特朗普肆意歪曲事實這種行為的嚴重性。人們說，戰(zhàn)爭的頭號犧牲者是事實真相。在網(wǎng)絡(luò)戰(zhàn)爭的時代，真相是主要攻擊目標。當(dāng)敵人的目標是散播混亂信息時，美國總統(tǒng)是否擁有足夠的可信度來反駁謊言顯得倍加重要。這是國家安全方面的頭等大事。

Mr Trump is as likely to be a source of wild propaganda as a check on it. Look at his verdict on the 2016 election. Hillary Clinton won almost 3m more votes than Mr Trump. He continues to insist the election was hijacked with between 3m and 5m rigged votes.It is hard to come up with a bigger “alternative fact” than that.

特朗普宣傳毫無依據(jù)的消息的可能性，與他制止這類消息流傳的可能性一樣大?？纯此麑?016年美國大選的說法吧。希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的普選票比特朗普多了近300萬張。特朗普一直堅稱選舉存在舞弊，有300萬到500萬張選票受到了操縱。很難提出一個比這還重磅的“替代事實”。

Which brings us to the final rule: pride trumps all else. Because he lost the popular vote, the president cannot shed that nagging urge to counter doubts about the legitimacy of his victory. Liberals can always be relied on to stoke it. The temptation to allege corruption where it does not exist, or to claim the system is rigged, will always haunt Mr Trump. He will thus continually be drawn into casting doubt on the rule of law in the country he leads.

這就說到了特朗普的最后一條行事準則：驕傲勝于一切。因為特朗普在普選票上落于下風(fēng)，他始終無法擺脫一種沖動，總想駁斥對他勝選的合法性的質(zhì)疑。自由主義者總能激起這種沖動。無中生有地宣稱存在腐敗、聲稱體制遭到操縱的誘惑將一直困擾特朗普。因此他將不斷地做出引導(dǎo)人們懷疑他所領(lǐng)導(dǎo)國家的法治的行為。

Those who wish to damage America’s standing need not lift a finger. Mr Trump is doing it for them. As Napoleon said: “Never interfere with your enemy while he is making a mistake.”

那些想要削弱美國聲望的人不必動一根手指。特朗普正代為行之。就像拿破侖(Napoleon)說的：“在你的敵人犯錯誤的時候，決不要干涉他。”