中國(guó)宣布關(guān)閉象牙市場(chǎng)能拯救大象嗎？

NAIROBI, Kenya — In the past 10 years, tens of thousands of elephants have been slaughtered across Africa to feed China’s insatiable appetite for ivory. Entire herds from Gabon to Tanzania have disappeared. Even baby elephants have been killed for their tiny stubs of ivory. Scientists have said that the very survival of the species is in China’s hands.

肯尼亞內(nèi)羅畢——在過(guò)去的10年中，為了滿足中國(guó)對(duì)象牙不知饜足的胃口，非洲有數(shù)以萬(wàn)計(jì)的大象遭到屠殺。從加蓬到坦桑尼亞，象群消失了。即使是幼象也因?yàn)閯倓偯邦^的小象牙而遭到殺害。科學(xué)家們說(shuō)，這個(gè)物種的生存前景掌握在中國(guó)的手中。

On Friday, after years of denying that China was part of the problem, the Chinese government made a stunning announcement: It would shut down the country’s ivory market, the world’s largest.

中國(guó)多年來(lái)一直否認(rèn)自己是這個(gè)問(wèn)題的一部分，但上周五，中國(guó)政府發(fā)表了一則出人意料的聲明：它將關(guān)閉該國(guó)的象牙市場(chǎng)。那是世界上最大的象牙市場(chǎng)。

Will this save the elephants? This is what experts on the plight of elephants say:

這能拯救大象嗎?深諳大象所處困境的專家表示：

— It all depends on the price. If China simply shuts down its legal ivory trade but does little to combat the much bigger illegal trade, then the price of ivory (now about $500 per pound) will stay high, giving poachers an incentive to keep killing.

——這完全取決于價(jià)格。如果中國(guó)僅僅是關(guān)停其合法的象牙貿(mào)易，在打擊規(guī)模更大的黑市方面沒(méi)有什么作為的話，那么象牙價(jià)格(現(xiàn)在每磅約500美元)將繼續(xù)保持在高位，偷獵者仍然有繼續(xù)獵殺大象的動(dòng)機(jī)。

— Making all ivory illegal in China could push the price up, like illegal drugs.

——宣布中國(guó)境內(nèi)所有象牙非法可能會(huì)推高價(jià)格，就像非法藥物一樣。

— Neighboring markets will be crucial. If Vietnam, Myanmar, the Philippines and others do not take similar steps, then many Chinese will buy their ivory from other places, which will keep demand high.

——鄰國(guó)市場(chǎng)將變得至關(guān)重要。如果越南、緬甸、菲律賓和其他國(guó)家不采取類似的舉措，屆時(shí)將有很多中國(guó)人從其他地方購(gòu)買(mǎi)象牙，這會(huì)維持需求的高企。

— African elephants face other threats, including habitat destruction and increasingly deadly contacts with humans. In Kenya, a truck speeding down a highway recently rammed into an elephant and killed it.

——非洲大象還面臨著其他威脅，包括棲息地遭到破壞，以及與人類的接觸越來(lái)越致命。最近，肯尼亞一輛在公路上疾馳的卡車撞死了一頭大象。

— Many elephants are also hunted for bush meat. China’s new policy will not affect that.

——還有很多大象是因?yàn)橛腥讼氤砸拔抖猾C殺。中國(guó)的新政策影響不到這個(gè)方面。

— If the Chinese government commits to combating the ivory trade, then the price of ivory could collapse. Criminal organizations and poachers will then abandon the business, and Africa’s elephant herds could recover for the first time in years.

——如果中國(guó)政府致力于打擊象牙交易，那么象牙價(jià)格可能會(huì)暴跌。犯罪組織和偷獵者就會(huì)放棄這項(xiàng)生意，非洲象群的數(shù)量可能會(huì)迎來(lái)多年來(lái)的首次回升。

Wildlife researchers estimate that 50 to 70 percent of all smuggled elephant ivory — maybe even more — ends up in China, where there are countless ivory workshops and showrooms, many perfectly legal.

野生動(dòng)物研究人員估計(jì)，在所有走私象牙中，最終流向中國(guó)的占50%到70%，甚或更多。中國(guó)有不計(jì)其數(shù)的象牙工廠和展廳，其中很多完全合法。

In China now, large pieces of legal ivory come with documents certifying that the ivory was acquired before the 1989 worldwide ban on the commercial ivory trade or that it came from one of the authorized sales since then, when a few African countries were allowed to sell from their stockpiles.

在中國(guó)，現(xiàn)在很多大件的合法象牙都附有相關(guān)文件，證明象牙購(gòu)買(mǎi)于1989年那項(xiàng)叫停商業(yè)象牙貿(mào)易的禁令頒布之前，或是購(gòu)自那之后的授權(quán)銷售途徑。那項(xiàng)全球性禁令頒布后，一些非洲國(guó)家獲準(zhǔn)銷售自己的庫(kù)存。

But many wildlife experts say this system is a farce. The ivory papers can be easily forged, and often the ivory in public shops is smuggled ivory from recently killed elephants that has been illegally imported and fraudulently labeled.

但很多野生動(dòng)物專家表示，這一制度純屬鬧劇。象牙文件造假容易，對(duì)外開(kāi)放的店鋪里擺放的象牙，往往是取自剛剛被獵殺的大象的走私象牙。它們被非法進(jìn)口，并被貼上假標(biāo)簽。

Iain Douglas-Hamilton, one of the world’s most renowned elephant researchers, said that up until a few years ago, Chinese officials denied that their country was a part of the ivory problem.

伊恩·道格拉斯-漢密爾頓(Iain Douglas-Hamilton)是全球最著名的大象研究人員之一。他說(shuō)，直到幾年前，中國(guó)官方還否認(rèn)中國(guó)是象牙問(wèn)題的一部分。

“It was a topic you couldn’t bring up with them,” Douglas-Hamilton said.

“那時(shí)候，你不能和他們提起這個(gè)話題，”道格拉斯-漢密爾頓說(shuō)。

But over the years, he said, China has grown embarrassed by the criticism it has received around the world for its appetite for ivory. Wildlife groups, the U.S. government, African governments and international movie stars have harangued China to say no to ivory.

但他說(shuō)，這些年來(lái)，中國(guó)因?qū)ο笱赖男枨蠖艿饺澜绲闹肛?zé)，并因此感到尷尬。野生動(dòng)物團(tuán)體、美國(guó)政府、非洲政府和國(guó)際影星紛紛敦促中國(guó)對(duì)象牙說(shuō)不。

“China has come through an extraordinary evolution,” Douglas-Hamilton said.

“中國(guó)經(jīng)歷了一場(chǎng)非凡的演變，”道格拉斯-漢密爾頓說(shuō)。

China says it will shut down its ivory trade by the end of the year. It says it will start by closing the legal ivory processing factories.

中國(guó)表示將在年底之前取締象牙貿(mào)易，并且將從關(guān)停合法的象牙加工廠開(kāi)始。

But will this drive the trade underground? For instance, it is forbidden in China to traffic in tiger parts.

但此舉會(huì)不會(huì)促使該貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)向地下?比如，中國(guó)是禁止交易老虎的身體部位的。

But there is still a thriving underground trade in tiger bones, used to make very expensive wines cherished for their supposed medicinal powers.

但虎骨的地下貿(mào)易依然頗為繁榮。因被認(rèn)為具有藥用價(jià)值，虎骨被視為珍寶并被用來(lái)制成非常昂貴的酒。

Some consumers seem to get an additional thrill from knowing tiger-bone wine is highly illegal.

一些消費(fèi)者似乎會(huì)因?yàn)榛⒐蔷茋?yán)重違法而感到更加刺激。

Karl Ammann, a documentary filmmaker and independent wildlife investigator in Kenya, said he was worried that something like this could happen to ivory.

肯尼亞紀(jì)錄片制作人、獨(dú)立野生動(dòng)物調(diào)查人士卡爾·安曼(Karl Ammann)稱，他擔(dān)心類似的情況會(huì)發(fā)生在象牙身上。

Ivory’s value as a status symbol could increase, he said, if ivory is seen as a statement of being above the law.

他說(shuō)，如果象牙被視作凌駕于法律之上的證明，其作為身份地位象征的價(jià)值可能會(huì)增加。

“If it’s illegal, that might make it even more attractive,” he said.

“如果是非法的，這甚至可能會(huì)讓它變得更有吸引力，”他說(shuō)。

Ammann also said many ivory-carving factories had moved to Vietnam. On a recent trip to Hanoi, Vietnam’s capital, he said, he visited an ivory workshop that used a computerized machine that carved five ivory pieces at once.

安曼還表示，不少象牙雕刻廠已轉(zhuǎn)移至越南。他說(shuō)，最近去越南首都河內(nèi)時(shí)，他參觀了一家象牙廠。該廠用的是一臺(tái)用電腦控制的機(jī)器，一次能夠雕刻五件象牙制品。

The reaction among many wildlife experts in Africa can be summed up in one word: cautious.

非洲很多野生動(dòng)物專家的反應(yīng)可以用一個(gè)詞來(lái)概括：謹(jǐn)慎。

“Assuming they are able to break the market, for us it does offer a bit of light at the end of a very dark tunnel,” said Emmanuel de Merode, director of Virunga National Park in Congo.

“假設(shè)他們能夠打破市場(chǎng)，對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)，這的確是在一條非常黑暗的隧道盡頭提供了一點(diǎn)亮光，”剛果維龍加國(guó)家公園(Virunga National Park)園長(zhǎng)埃曼努埃爾·德梅羅德(Emmanuel de Merode)說(shuō)。

But he quickly added: “Ivory can be stockpiled. Some people may think it’s worth trying to get more ivory in case the market opens one day.”

但他很快又補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“象牙可能會(huì)被囤積起來(lái)。一些人也許會(huì)認(rèn)為，不妨試試弄到更多象牙，說(shuō)不定有一天市場(chǎng)又開(kāi)放了呢。”

That could mean an increase in poaching before China’s ban takes effect.

這可能意味著在中國(guó)的禁令生效前，偷獵現(xiàn)象會(huì)增加。

Paula Kahumbu, chief executive of WildlifeDirect, a conservation group in Kenya, said she was “suspicious” about China’s motives and its commitment to fight the ivory trade.

肯尼亞保護(hù)組織野生動(dòng)物信息(WildlifeDirect)的執(zhí)行主任保拉·卡乎姆卜(Paula Kahumbu)說(shuō)，她對(duì)中國(guó)的動(dòng)機(jī)和打擊象牙貿(mào)易的承諾“感到懷疑”。

“China needs Africa right now,” she said. “I think they’re just buying good will.”

“中國(guó)現(xiàn)在需要非洲，”她說(shuō)。“我覺(jué)得他們只是在換取善意。”

Kahumbu cited several Chinese infrastructure projects that had caused problems for Kenya’s wildlife.

卡乎姆卜列舉了中國(guó)的幾個(gè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目作為例子。它們給肯尼亞的野生動(dòng)植物帶來(lái)了麻煩。

When it comes to Africa, she said, China does not have “an environmental bone” in its body.

在非洲的問(wèn)題上，她說(shuō)，中國(guó)的身體里沒(méi)有長(zhǎng)“環(huán)保的骨頭”。