2016年餐飲業(yè)形勢黯淡

As economic uncertainty and falling grocery prices pressure the industry, U.S. eateries are facing a slowdown in traffic, according to a Thursday report from research firm The NPD Group. The study said total traffic was flat in the second quarter of 2016, following a flat performance in the first three months of the year. Analysts earlier this summer flagged worries about declining sales trends, with some saying there could soon be a “restaurant recession”—though the sector hasn’t suffered that deeply just yet.

The weakness was particularly profound during lunch hour, according to NPD, where visits for the second quarter slipped 4% in the second quarter from year-earlier levels. That part of the day represents 33% of all visits to restaurants, and it offset an increase in demand for breakfast.

“Contributing to the stalled visit growth are consumers’ uncertainties about current and future economic conditions,” Bonnie Riggs, NPD’s restaurant industry analyst, wrote in the report.

She echoes some of the industry’s top executives who reported their latest quarterly results earlier this summer. Starbucks’ (SBUX -0.70%) CEO Howard Schultz recently said the coffee giant and others were stung by “macro challenges” that impacted the industry and overall retail sector. Though Starbucks bucked the trend by reporting same-restaurant sales growth in the U.S., the latest quarter’s 4% increase disappointed investors as it ended a streak of 25 straight quarters of domestic comparable-store sales growth of 5% or greater.

Fast-food operator Wendy’s complained about consumers’ moods as well, and blamed stalling wages and rising living costs for hurting consumer spending. CEO Todd Penegor said the 2016 presidential race was also a factor, as consumers are “a little uncertain around their future and really trying to figure out what this election cycle really means to them.”

The pain was widespread among dining’s heaviest hitters. McDonald’s ( MCD 0.73%) U.S. sales growth was slower than expected in the latest quarter, while burrito chain Chiptole (CMG -1.86%) continues to face sales woes in the wake of a food-safety crisis last year.

The fast-casual sector, which is dominated by Chipotle and Panera Bread ( PNRA -1.17% ,)faced traffic woes even when excluding Chipotle’s bruising results. NPD said that segment of the restaurant industry—which for years had been a star performer—posted only a slim 2% increase in traffic in the second quarter while Chipotle’s sales were flat. Either way, that’s a sharp deceleration from last year’s 11% increase in the same period. Meanwhile, the declines in traffic for the casual dining and family dining segments continued in the second quarter.

So where are diners eating? Increasingly, more at home. Because food and fuel costs have been decreasing for the past few years, grocery chains have recently lowered some prices, making it more affordable for consumers to dine in. That comes as many restaurant operators have been increasing menu prices.

It’s resulting in an environment that favors Kroger (KR -0.53%) , Walmart( WMT -0.13%) , and other big grocers. And beyond the cheaper food prices, some of those chains have also carved out room for grab-and-go meals—another way to pressure restaurant chains, especially for the dinner occasion.

研究公司The NPD Group在上周四發(fā)布的報(bào)告中指出，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)不穩(wěn)定，食品價(jià)格下跌，美國的餐飲業(yè)遭遇了客流量增速放緩的問題。研究表明，在2016年前三個(gè)月客流量表現(xiàn)平平之后，第二季度的總客流量依然沒有起色。今年夏初，分析師們表達(dá)了對于銷售趨勢走低的擔(dān)憂，一些人認(rèn)為很快就將出現(xiàn)“餐飲業(yè)衰退”——盡管這一行業(yè)目前還沒有到這么糟糕的地步。

NPD表示，午餐時(shí)間的客流量疲軟尤其意義深遠(yuǎn)，2016年的午餐客流量同比下滑了4%。這一時(shí)段的客流量貢獻(xiàn)了餐館客流總量的33%，也抵消了消費(fèi)者對早餐需求的增加帶來的利好。

NPD的餐飲業(yè)分析師邦妮·里格斯在報(bào)告中寫道：“客流量止步不前，部分原因在于消費(fèi)者對當(dāng)下和未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況感到不確定。”

她的說法與今年夏天早些時(shí)候發(fā)布最新財(cái)報(bào)的業(yè)內(nèi)高管類似。星巴克(Starbucks)的首席執(zhí)行官霍華德·舒爾茨近期表示，這家咖啡巨頭和其他餐館都因?yàn)橛绊懻麄€(gè)行業(yè)和全體零售業(yè)的“宏觀挑戰(zhàn)”蒙受了損失。盡管美國的星巴克在一片衰退之中逆潮流地實(shí)現(xiàn)了同店銷售額4%的增長，但這種漲幅依舊讓消費(fèi)者感到失望，因?yàn)樾前涂诉B續(xù)25個(gè)季度國內(nèi)同店銷售額增長5%以上的勢頭就此終結(jié)了。

快餐連鎖集團(tuán)Wendy’s同樣在抱怨消費(fèi)者的情緒，他們認(rèn)為止步不前的收入和不斷上漲的生活成本影響了顧客的消費(fèi)能力。首席執(zhí)行官托德·佩尼格表示，2016年的總統(tǒng)競選也是因素之一，因?yàn)橄M(fèi)者“有些不確定他們的未來，他們試圖搞清楚這次選舉對他們來說究竟意味著什么”。

這種痛楚在餐飲界巨頭之間廣為擴(kuò)散。麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald’s)上季度在美國的銷售額增長也低于預(yù)期。墨西哥卷餅連鎖店Chiptole自去年食品安全危機(jī)以來，銷量就持續(xù)疲軟。

由Chipotle和帕納拉面包(Panera Bread)主導(dǎo)的休閑快餐領(lǐng)域，即便是排除Chipotle的糟糕情況，在客流量上依舊乏善可陳。NPD表示，餐飲業(yè)多年來都表現(xiàn)出色，今年第二季度的客流量增長卻只有2%，Chipotle的銷售額也很不景氣。總之，比起去年同期11%的增長，今年的減速十分明顯。與此同時(shí)，休閑餐廳和家庭餐廳客流量減少的情況在第二季度依舊持續(xù)。

這些人都去哪里用餐了呢?更多是在家里。由于過去幾年中食品和燃油價(jià)格下跌，食品雜貨店近來下調(diào)了價(jià)格，在家里吃飯變得更加實(shí)惠。與此同時(shí)，許多餐館卻提高了菜品的價(jià)位。

在這樣的局勢下，克羅格(Kroger)、沃爾瑪( Walmart)和其他大型雜貨商得以獲利。除了售賣更便宜的食品以外，部分連鎖店還開辟了外賣窗口——這又給餐飲連鎖店帶來了壓力，尤其是在晚餐方面。