美國(guó)年輕人淪為注定失敗的一代？

美國(guó)年輕人淪為注定失敗的一代?

We've all heard the message from our parents: If you work hard, get a good education, and play by the rules, you will do well in life. Baby boomers like me were able to turn that formula into the American Dream.

從小到大，父母一直教導(dǎo)我們：如果你努力學(xué)習(xí)，獲得良好的教育，同時(shí)遵守游戲規(guī)則，你肯定會(huì)過(guò)上好日子。像我這樣的嬰兒潮一代能夠把這個(gè)公式轉(zhuǎn)化為美國(guó)夢(mèng)。

But while we were able to graduate from high school, vocational school programs, or college into an economy that was growing and providing us with great opportunities, we cannot make the same promise to our children and grandchildren today. Instead of hope, the nation faces a widening economic divide; according to Gallup and other surveys, a majority of Americans agree that the U.S. has been going in the wrong direction for at least a decade, and they expect the next generation will have a lower standard of living than ours.

我們這一代人從高中、職?；虼髮W(xué)畢業(yè)后，正處于上行趨勢(shì)的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)為我們提供了許多好機(jī)會(huì)，但我們現(xiàn)在無(wú)法給我們的子女和孫輩做出同樣的承諾。這個(gè)國(guó)家所面臨的不再是充滿希望的璀璨未來(lái)，而是日益擴(kuò)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)鴻溝;根據(jù)蓋洛普公司(Gallup)和其他機(jī)構(gòu)的調(diào)查，大多數(shù)美國(guó)人認(rèn)為美國(guó)至少已經(jīng)朝著錯(cuò)誤的方向前行了10年之久，而且預(yù)計(jì)下一代人的生活標(biāo)準(zhǔn)將低于我們這一代。

Is this gloomy outlook inevitable? Have the global economy, ever-advancing technology, and other forces left us with no control over the destiny of future generations? Only if we choose to do nothing. Reversing course is possible, but it will take a cross-generational effort by baby boomers and next-generation leaders to negotiate what I call a New Social Contract that fits and works with the features of the future economy and workforce.

這個(gè)令人沮喪的前景是不是已經(jīng)不可避免?全球化經(jīng)濟(jì)、日新月異的技術(shù)和其他力量是否已經(jīng)讓我們無(wú)法控制后代的命運(yùn)?要是我們選擇袖手旁觀，就會(huì)出現(xiàn)上面這樣的后果。扭轉(zhuǎn)航向是可能的，但這需要嬰兒潮一代和下一代領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者攜手努力，尤其是需要協(xié)商出我所說(shuō)的“新社會(huì)契約”，一種適合未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)和勞動(dòng)力特征，并行之有效的社會(huì)契約。

In future columns, I'll lay out the pieces of that comprehensive strategy, which calls for major overhauls of business, labor, government, and educational institutions as well as the relationships among them. But before we can get to possible solutions, we need to more clearly understand the problems young people -- especially millennials between 18 and 33 years of age -- face in entering the labor market today.

我在以后的專(zhuān)欄中將詳細(xì)論述這項(xiàng)全面戰(zhàn)略的內(nèi)涵，它要求對(duì)企業(yè)、勞工、政府和教育機(jī)構(gòu)及它們之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行徹底改革。但要想獲得可行的解決方案，我們首先需要更清楚地了解年輕人(特別是18歲到33歲之間的千禧一代)進(jìn)入今天的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)時(shí)所面臨的種種問(wèn)題。

The essence of the problem is that young people face a severe shortage of good jobs. It has taken almost five years after the supposed end of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 to finally get back the number of jobs lost. But that does not take into account the growth in the labor force since then.

這個(gè)問(wèn)題的實(shí)質(zhì)是，提供給年輕人的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)嚴(yán)重不足。2007-2009年的“大衰退”理論上結(jié)束之后，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)歷時(shí)近5年，才終于恢復(fù)了流失的工作數(shù)量。但這并沒(méi)有考慮從那時(shí)以來(lái)的勞動(dòng)力增幅。

To get back to the same employment levels as before the recession, between 13.5 and 15 million new jobs would need to be created by the end of this decade. That's a minimum of 200,000 jobs per month, which is 50,000 more jobs a month than the average since 2009.

要想讓就業(yè)率恢復(fù)至經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退前的水平，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)就需要在這個(gè)十年結(jié)束時(shí)創(chuàng)造1,350萬(wàn)至1,500萬(wàn)個(gè)新崗位，也就是說(shuō)每月至少需要新增20萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，這個(gè)數(shù)字要比2009年以來(lái)的月平均工作崗位增幅多出5萬(wàn)個(gè)。

How does this affect young people entering the job market? Nearly 40% of recent college graduates are "underemployed," i.e., working in low-wage retail, restaurant, or other service jobs that don't require a college degree, don't put their skills to work, or provide opportunities for further learning and development, according to Northeastern University's Center for Labor Market Analysis. Such jobs pay wages that are hardly sufficient to meet their college debt payments, much less start a career or a family. And the evidence is clear: Starting off this way results in significant, even permanent damage to their incomes and careers.

這種情況將對(duì)進(jìn)入就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的年輕人產(chǎn)生什么影響?根據(jù)東北大學(xué)(Northeastern University)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)分析中心(Center for Labor Market Analysis)提供的數(shù)據(jù)，近40%的應(yīng)屆大學(xué)畢業(yè)生“就業(yè)不足”，也就是說(shuō)，他們從事的是零售、餐飲或其他工資低下的服務(wù)性工作。這類(lèi)工作不需要大學(xué)學(xué)歷，不能發(fā)揮他們的技能，無(wú)法提供進(jìn)一步學(xué)習(xí)和發(fā)展的機(jī)會(huì)。這類(lèi)工作支付的薪酬幾乎不夠償還大學(xué)債務(wù)，更不用說(shuō)靠它們來(lái)成家立業(yè)了。證據(jù)顯而易見(jiàn)：以這種方式開(kāi)啟職業(yè)生涯會(huì)對(duì)他們的收入和事業(yè)造成顯著、甚至是永久性的損害。

This current reality clashes with our own recent past. For three decades following World War II, wages rose in tandem with increases in productivity -- that was the essence of the old "Social Contract." But in the 30 years since 1980, earnings have essentially flatlined: While the productivity of American workers grew by a healthy 80%, family income grew by only about 10%, and average hourly wages inched up by about 6%.

這個(gè)現(xiàn)狀迥異于我們這代人的經(jīng)歷。二戰(zhàn)后的30年里，工資與生產(chǎn)率同步增長(zhǎng)——這是舊“社會(huì)契約”的本質(zhì)。但在上世紀(jì)80年代之后的30年里，工人的收益基本上趨于平緩：雖然美國(guó)工人的生產(chǎn)率飆漲了80%，但家庭收入僅增長(zhǎng)了大約10%，每小時(shí)平均工資的增速更是低得可憐，僅僅只有6%左右。

The first decade of this century -- sometimes called "the lost decade" -- has been even worse. Real wages (wages adjusted for increases in the cost of living) either declined or did not increase for high school or college graduates. Only those at the top of the occupational ladder with advanced degrees experienced modest wage growth. The "Occupy" movement had its facts right: Most of the income growth went to the top 1% or less of the population. America is now suffering from the highest level of income inequality of any time since the 1920s.

本世紀(jì)頭十年(有時(shí)也被稱(chēng)為“失去的十年”)的形勢(shì)繼續(xù)惡化。高中或大學(xué)畢業(yè)生的實(shí)際工資(剔除生活費(fèi)用上漲因素后的工資水平)要么下降，要么沒(méi)有增長(zhǎng)。只有那些擁有高學(xué)歷，位居職業(yè)階梯頂層的人群的工資出現(xiàn)了溫和增長(zhǎng)。“占領(lǐng)”運(yùn)動(dòng)的確看清了事實(shí)：收入增幅基本上落入了收入最高的1%或更小比例人口的口袋。美國(guó)目前的收入不平等程度正處于20世紀(jì)20年代以來(lái)的最高水平。

Can this downward, disturbing trend be changed? I believe it can, if we start work now on building a consensus strategy for the future.

這種令人不安的下行趨勢(shì)能否改變?如果我們現(xiàn)在就開(kāi)始致力于構(gòu)建一個(gè)面向未來(lái)的戰(zhàn)略共識(shí)的話，我相信是可以的。

Education is still the starting point -- a necessary but far from sufficient solution today. The good news is there appear to be a growing consensus and considerable momentum in the country to expand access to early childhood education and to reform elementary and secondary schools. For today's young workers to compete on a global stage, all the rhetoric about "life-long learning" will need to become a reality. We have the tools to do this now. Every U.S. university and community college is experimenting with "online" or distant courses. And many employers complain that new entrants don't have the right mix of skills.

教育依然是起點(diǎn)——這是一切解決方案的前提，但我們目前做的還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠。好消息是，全美上下似乎正在就擴(kuò)大兒童早期教育和改造小學(xué)和中學(xué)等問(wèn)題達(dá)成越來(lái)越多的共識(shí)，而且獲得了可喜的進(jìn)展。要想讓今天的青年工人在全球舞臺(tái)上競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，所有關(guān)于“終身學(xué)習(xí)”的豪言壯語(yǔ)都需要變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)。我們現(xiàn)在擁有做到這一點(diǎn)的工具。美國(guó)所有的大學(xué)和社區(qū)學(xué)院都在嘗試“在線”或遠(yuǎn)程課程。同時(shí)，許多雇主抱怨說(shuō)，新入職的員工不具備恰當(dāng)?shù)募寄芙M合。

The obvious solution is for university, community college, and industry leaders to get together and design the coursework and the on-the-job experiences young workers need to be productive, learn, grow, and gain access to better and higher paying jobs.

一個(gè)顯而易見(jiàn)的解決方案是，大學(xué)、社區(qū)學(xué)院和行業(yè)領(lǐng)袖攜起手來(lái)，共同設(shè)計(jì)課程和實(shí)際工作體驗(yàn)，以改善年輕工人的生產(chǎn)率，讓他們不斷學(xué)習(xí)，成長(zhǎng)，最終獲得收入更高的好工作。

But education alone will not solve sluggish job creation or wage stagnation.

但教育本身還不足以解決低迷的就業(yè)創(chuàng)造和工資停滯問(wèn)題。

In my upcoming columns, I'll raise other ideas and proposals, such as moving off the fixation with short-term shareholder value as the sole purpose of the firm, the need to invent new "next-generation" labor organizations, and ways to update employment policies to catch up with the changing economy and labor force. Some will be controversial, and I will invite your comments, ideas, and engagement as we go along. Together, we might just find common ground on a Social Contract that works for the next generation as effectively as the old one worked for mine.

我在接下來(lái)的幾篇專(zhuān)欄文章中還將提出其他意見(jiàn)和建議，比如企業(yè)不應(yīng)該一門(mén)心思地把短期股東價(jià)值作為唯一的經(jīng)營(yíng)目標(biāo)，我們需要?jiǎng)?chuàng)造全新的“下一代”勞工組織，還要設(shè)法更新雇傭政策以適應(yīng)不斷變化的經(jīng)濟(jì)和勞動(dòng)力形勢(shì)。其中一些建議肯定會(huì)引起爭(zhēng)議，我非?？释魑蛔x者參與進(jìn)來(lái)，暢談各自的真知灼見(jiàn)。通過(guò)一番共同努力，我們或許會(huì)找到共同點(diǎn)，最終為下一代制定一份跟我們這一代人曾經(jīng)享有的契約同樣有效的社會(huì)契約。