歸國(guó)留學(xué)生：海龜們的困境

"I LEFT in 1980 with only three dollars in my pocket,” recalls Li Sanqi. Like most in that elite group, he excelled, rising to a coveted position at the University of Texas, while launching several technology firms. Now he is a senior executive at Huawei, a Chinese telecoms giant, enticed back by the chance to help build a world-class multinational.

Mr Li seems the perfect example of a sea turtle, orhai gui(in Mandarin, the phrase “return across the sea” sounds similar to that animal’s name), long applauded in China for bringing back advanced skills. In the past such folk reliably reaped handsome premiums in the local job market, but no longer. Sea turtles are not universally praised, the wage differential is shrinking and some are even unable to find jobs. Wags say they should now be calledhai dai, or seaweed. This is a startling turn, given their past contributions.

Wang Huiyao of the China Western Returned Scholars Association, which celebrates its centenary this year, observes that sea turtles have returned in five waves. The first, in the 19th century, produced China’s first railway-builder and its first university president. The second and third, before 1949, produced many leaders of the Nationalist and Communist parties. The fourth wave, which went to the Soviet bloc in the 1950s, produced such leaders as Jiang Zemin and Li Peng.

The present wave began in 1978, and is by far the biggest. Since then, about 2.6m Chinese have gone abroad to study. The exodus has grown of late to about 400,000 per year. The majority stay overseas, but the 1.1m who have come back have made a difference. Mr Wang argues that whereas the first three waves revolutionised China and the fourth modernised it, the fifth wave is globalising the country.

Sea turtles are helping to link China’s economy to the world. They founded leading technology firms such as Baidu. Many are senior managers in the local divisions of multinational firms. They are helping to connect China to commercial, political and popular culture abroad.

Why then is their importance declining? Several studies show that sea turtles on average must now wait longer to find a less senior post at a smaller salary premium over local hires. The weakening job market for all graduates is one reason. Another is that, as China’s domestic market has taken off, industries such as e-commerce have evolved in ways unfamiliar to those who spent years abroad. Gary Rieschel of Qiming Ventures, a venture-capital firm, says that investors who a decade ago would have funded only those returning from Silicon Valley are now backing entrepreneurs from local universities, who are more familiar with local consumption patterns, computer-gaming habits and social media such as Weibo and Weixin.

As China has boomed, its managers have started to shed their inferiority complex. A senior executive at Tencent, a Chinese social-media giant, says he still poaches sea turtles from foreign firms, but finds they have difficulty managing local engineers. A European investment banker says turtles often cling to quaint Western notions like transparency, meritocracy and ethics, which puts them at a disadvantage in China’s hyper-Darwinian economy, where locals are more willing to do whatever the boss or client wants.

Even foreign firms in China are getting pickier about whom they hire. Yannig Gourmelon of Roland Berger, a German management consultancy, believes the broader profit squeeze at multinational firms that killed off gilded expatriate packages has also sharply reduced the salary premium offered to sea turtles.

C grade turtles

There is another explanation: many of the latest wave are of lower quality. In the past, only the very best were allowed to go out and so competition for government scholarships was fierce. But as incomes have risen, many families of mediocre Chinese students have spent a fortune on degrees from universities of dubious quality that do little to enhance their job prospects. Worse yet, partly because of the downturn in Western economies, many have come back without work experience.

Even as hordes of less employable expatriates return, the brightest remain abroad. A study funded by America’s National Science Foundation found that 92% of Chinese with American PhDs still lived in that country five years after graduation. For Indians, the figure was 81%, for South Koreans 41% and for Mexicans 32%.

To lure such superstars back, the Chinese government is pouring pots of money into a scheme called 1,000 Talents, which offers generous subsidies and other perks. The powerful Organisation Department of the Communist Party is urging regional leaders and university heads to meet quotas for securing talent. In a forthcoming paper, Mr Wang and David Zweig of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology argue that China has been “perhaps the most assertive government in the world” in such efforts.

Will it work? It seems doubtful. Despite the policies, returning entrepreneurs hit many problems. Labour and land costs are rising, the theft of intellectual property is still rampant and corruption is widespread. Few top-tier scientists have returned. Mr Wang and Mr Zweig’s paper explains why: “If China wants to bring back the best, it needs a fundamental reform of its academic and scientific institutions” to break the power of politicised administrators over hiring and funding.

The hard truth is that Chinese abroad often have ambivalent attitudes towards their homeland. The wife and children of Huawei’s Mr Li, the seemingly archetypal sea turtle, still live in America. Rather than just shovelling out subsidies, Chinese officials might do better to strengthen the rule of law, root out corruption and clean up China’s air, water and food. Sea turtles would be sure to notice.

據(jù)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》7月6日?qǐng)?bào)道——“我在1980年離開(中國(guó))，口袋里僅揣著3美元，”李三奇(音譯)回憶道。和那一批中大多數(shù)的精英們一樣，他表現(xiàn)出眾，并在曾催生過諸多科技公司的德克薩斯大學(xué)中晉升到一個(gè)令人垂涎的位置?，F(xiàn)在他是中國(guó)電信巨頭——華為公司的高級(jí)管理人員，他因中國(guó)需其幫忙以建立一個(gè)世界級(jí)跨國(guó)公司而被召喚回國(guó)。

李先生是海龜們的杰出代表。海龜，意為“海歸”，常被用于贊譽(yù)那些從國(guó)外引進(jìn)新技術(shù)回中國(guó)的留學(xué)生們。過去，海龜們?cè)蜻@種贊譽(yù)而在當(dāng)?shù)鼐蜆I(yè)市場(chǎng)中獲得可觀收入。然而，好時(shí)光一去不復(fù)返。海龜們不再獲得普遍好評(píng)，他們與當(dāng)?shù)貏趧?dòng)力的工資差距正在減少，有些甚至難以找到工作。坊間有稱他們現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該被稱為海待(海帶)。在這個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)上，他們昔日輝煌不再。

王輝耀，是已走過百年歷程的歐美同學(xué)會(huì)中的一員，他觀察到共有五次海龜回國(guó)潮。第一次發(fā)生在19世紀(jì)，并為中國(guó)培育了第一條鐵路設(shè)計(jì)者以及第一個(gè)大學(xué)校長(zhǎng);第二和第三次，發(fā)生在1949年以前，并為國(guó)共兩黨培育出許多領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人;第四次浪潮，和1950年被送往蘇聯(lián)陣營(yíng)深造有關(guān)，并產(chǎn)生了如江澤民及李鵬等領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。

現(xiàn)在我們正經(jīng)歷始于1978年的第五次浪潮，也是最大的一次。從那以后，約260萬(wàn)中國(guó)學(xué)子出國(guó)深造。最近，這批大量外出深造的隊(duì)伍以每年40萬(wàn)人的速度增長(zhǎng)。他們中的大部分留在海外，但是其中的110萬(wàn)人回國(guó)發(fā)展，希望創(chuàng)不同。王先生認(rèn)為，如果說(shuō)前三次留學(xué)歸國(guó)浪潮有助于變革中國(guó)，第四次浪潮為了使中國(guó)走向現(xiàn)代化，那么第五次浪潮則為這個(gè)國(guó)家?guī)?lái)全球化。

海龜們將中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)與世界相連。他們成立了諸如百度等科技公司。他們中的大多數(shù)成為了跨國(guó)公司駐中國(guó)分公司的高級(jí)經(jīng)理。他們正在從商業(yè)、政治以及流行文化上著手，幫助中國(guó)走向世界。

他們的重要性為何會(huì)下降?多項(xiàng)研究表明，和本地員工相比，海龜們需要花更多時(shí)間才能晉升到一個(gè)有較小工資溢價(jià)的不那么高級(jí)的職位。其中，這也和應(yīng)屆生就業(yè)市場(chǎng)疲軟有關(guān)。另一個(gè)原因，則是因?yàn)?海龜們)已和中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)脫軌。諸如電商等行業(yè)近年來(lái)發(fā)生巨大變化，對(duì)于那些在外漂泊數(shù)年的海龜們而言，一切都不再熟悉。啟明創(chuàng)投的Gary Rieschel提到，十年前到處網(wǎng)羅從硅谷回來(lái)的投資者們現(xiàn)在將目光轉(zhuǎn)移到從當(dāng)?shù)卮髮W(xué)畢業(yè)的企業(yè)家們身上，因?yàn)樗麄兏煜ぎ?dāng)?shù)氐南M(fèi)模式，電腦游戲習(xí)慣以及諸如微博以及微信等社會(huì)媒體的使用方法。

隨著中國(guó)的蓬勃發(fā)展，經(jīng)理人們開始逐漸擺脫他們的自卑感。中國(guó)社交媒體巨頭騰訊公司的一位高級(jí)管理人員說(shuō)，他仍從國(guó)外公司網(wǎng)絡(luò)海龜，但是卻發(fā)現(xiàn)他們難以管理掌控當(dāng)?shù)氐墓こ處焸?。一位歐洲的投資銀行家說(shuō)，海龜們傾向堅(jiān)持屬于西方的(在中國(guó)看起來(lái))“奇怪”的信條：如透明，任人唯賢以及職業(yè)道德等，而這讓他們?cè)谥袊?guó)超達(dá)爾文經(jīng)濟(jì)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中處于劣勢(shì)地位——在中國(guó)，人們?cè)敢饨弑M所能達(dá)成老板與客戶所好。

即使是中國(guó)的外資企業(yè)，也在聘請(qǐng)人員上越來(lái)越挑剔。德國(guó)管理咨詢公司羅蘭貝格的古默龍(Yannig Gourmelon)認(rèn)為，跨國(guó)公司利潤(rùn)的大幅度減少，使那些鍍金過的外派人員待遇下降，也是讓海龜們獲得更少薪金的原因。

C級(jí)海龜

現(xiàn)在還有另外一個(gè)解釋：許多最近歸國(guó)的海龜們(和之前相比)質(zhì)量較低。過去，只有那些精英中的精英才被允許出國(guó)留學(xué)，因此，政府獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)異常激烈;但是現(xiàn)在，隨著收入的增加，許多平庸學(xué)生也能依靠財(cái)富獲取一個(gè)質(zhì)量可疑大學(xué)的文憑，而這對(duì)增加其職場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，提高就業(yè)前景沒有任何幫助。比這更遭的是，部分由于西方國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落，海龜們歸國(guó)全無(wú)工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)。

即使現(xiàn)在(海龜們)以受雇外籍人士身份回國(guó)的數(shù)量越來(lái)越少，最聰明的仍留在國(guó)外。一個(gè)由美國(guó)國(guó)家科學(xué)基金會(huì)資助的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，擁有美國(guó)博士學(xué)位的92%的中國(guó)人在畢業(yè)五年后仍留在美國(guó)。與此對(duì)應(yīng)，這個(gè)情況對(duì)于印度人來(lái)說(shuō)是81%，對(duì)于韓國(guó)人而言是41%，對(duì)于墨西哥人來(lái)說(shuō)是32%。

為了吸引這些超級(jí)巨星們，中國(guó)政府投入大量資金到一個(gè)旨在為他們提供慷慨補(bǔ)貼及大量津貼的“千人計(jì)劃”之中。中共組織部正敦促地方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人以及大學(xué)校長(zhǎng)們完成一定配額，以引進(jìn)人才。在即將發(fā)表的論文中，王先生以及香港科技大學(xué)崔大偉(David　Zweig)認(rèn)為，就這些方面而言，中國(guó) “也許是世界上最果斷的政府”。

這些做法有用嗎?現(xiàn)在下結(jié)論還為時(shí)尚早。盡管有了這些政策，歸國(guó)企業(yè)家們?nèi)悦媾R許多問題。勞動(dòng)力成本以及土地資金費(fèi)用正在上升。在頂級(jí)科學(xué)家們的圈子中，幾乎沒有人回國(guó)。在王先生和崔大偉的論文中解釋了這一現(xiàn)象：“如果中國(guó)希望吸引最好的(科學(xué)家)回國(guó)，那么她需要對(duì)學(xué)術(shù)及科研機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)行根本性的改革”，并以此跳出行政長(zhǎng)官雇傭和資助科研的怪圈。

一個(gè)殘酷的事實(shí)是，遠(yuǎn)在國(guó)外的中國(guó)人對(duì)于他們的祖國(guó)常常懷有矛盾的心情。在華為工作的李先生，就是典型海龜中的一員，他的妻兒仍在美國(guó)居住。若想吸引海龜們回歸，除提高補(bǔ)助外，中國(guó)官員也許還需要加強(qiáng)法治，根除腐敗，凈化空氣，清潔水源，解決食品安全問題。如果他們真這樣做了，海龜們一定注意得到。