[雙語]中國房地產(chǎn)：泡沫要破裂了嗎？

Whether China’s real estate market is a bubble that could pop, knocking out Chinese growth and shaking the world’s economy, is a question that is now being asked by everyone from Brazilian iron ore traders to hedge fund managers in the City. In the first of a series on beyondbrics – with a separate series on FT.com – Jamil Anderlini, the FT’s Beijing bureau chief, says that whether it pops or not, the current situation is unsustainable.
中國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是否出現(xiàn)了可能破裂，影響中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長并動(dòng)搖全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的泡沫，這是從巴西鐵礦石貿(mào)易商到倫敦金融城對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理的所有人都在問的一個(gè)問題。英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》中文網(wǎng)從今天開始推出中國房地產(chǎn)專題，本文是這個(gè)專題的首篇文章。英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》駐北京記者站站長吉密歐(Jamil Anderlini)在此文中表示，無論泡沫破裂與否，中國當(dāng)前的局面是不可持續(xù)的。
   
It was not until the Chinese government decided to privatise much of the country’s urban residential housing stock in 1998 that most people in China had even considered the possibility of owning their own home.
在1998年中國政府決定將大部分城市存量住宅產(chǎn)權(quán)私有化之前，大多數(shù)中國人甚至都沒有想過有一天能擁有自己的房子。
   
While official figures now show 89 per cent home ownership in the cities – a figure disputed by many – analysts argue that Chinese real estate constitutes the single most important sector for the health of the entire global economy today.
盡管現(xiàn)在的中國官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示城鎮(zhèn)居民住房自有率達(dá)到了89%（許多人對(duì)這個(gè)數(shù)字頗有爭議），但分析師們指出，中國房地產(chǎn)是目前保持全球整體經(jīng)濟(jì)健康最重要的一個(gè)因素。
   
“Real estate and housing construction pervade the entire mainland [Chinese] growth model,” says Jonathan Anderson, economist at UBS, the Swiss bank. “They are the most important determinant of commodity demand, a very big marginal driver of China’s external surpluses and indeed a crucial key to real understanding of household balance sheets, saving and investment.”
瑞銀(UBS)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家喬納森-安德森(Jonathan Anderson)表示：“房地產(chǎn)和住房建設(shè)主導(dǎo)著中國內(nèi)地的增長模式。它們是決定大宗商品需求的最重要因素，是中國外部盈余最大的非主流推動(dòng)力，而且事實(shí)上是真正理解家庭資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表、儲(chǔ)蓄和投資的關(guān)鍵因素。”
   
A visit to any Chinese city, with its forests of cranes and endless construction sites, should be enough to convince most casual observers of the importance of real estate in what is now the world’s second-largest economy.
去中國任何一座城市看看，密密麻麻的起重機(jī)和永不停歇的建筑工地，應(yīng)該足以讓最漫不經(jīng)心的觀察人士明白房地產(chǎn)在這個(gè)全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中的重要性。
   
And while there is no consensus among economists and analysts over whether rapid price rises and a massive construction boom do constitute a bubble, there is serious concern among some Chinese officials and recognition from almost everybody that the current growth is unsustainable over the long term.
盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和分析師沒有就中國房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格快速上漲和大規(guī)模建設(shè)熱潮是否真的形成泡沫達(dá)成共識(shí)，但一些中國官員強(qiáng)烈擔(dān)憂，長期而言，當(dāng)前的增長是不可持續(xù)的，這一點(diǎn)幾乎得到了所有人的認(rèn)可。
   
By some estimates, China now consumes up to 50 per cent of key global commodities and materials such as cement, iron ore, steel and coal and Chinese real estate is the main driver of that demand.
按照一些人的估計(jì)，中國目前消費(fèi)了全球多達(dá)50%的主要大宗商品和原材料，比如水泥、鐵礦石、鋼材和煤炭，而中國房地產(chǎn)是這種需求的主要推動(dòng)因素。
   
For example, real estate construction directly accounts for about 40 per cent of Chinese steel usage.
例如，房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)直接占到中國鋼材使用量的40%左右。
   
But when home appliances, automobile production, property-related infrastructure and other such property-dependant sectors are included, as much as two-thirds of total steel consumption in China is broadly driven by property spending.
但是如果把家用電器、汽車生產(chǎn)、與房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施以及其它依賴房地產(chǎn)的行業(yè)考慮進(jìn)去，中國高達(dá)三分之二的鋼材消費(fèi)量基本上是由房地產(chǎn)支出推動(dòng)的。
   
Since last year, the Chinese government has been trying to rein in soaring real estate prices and limit over-investment in the middle- and high-end residential developments that have proliferated across the country.
自去年以來，中國政府一直在努力遏制房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格飆升，并限制遍布全國的對(duì)中高端住宅開發(fā)的過度投資。
   
At the same time, Beijing has launched an unprecedented campaign to build tens of millions of state-subsidised apartments to provide housing for the majority of Chinese citizens who can no longer afford to buy or rent their own home in the cities.
與此同時(shí)，中國政府史無前例地推出了建設(shè)數(shù)千萬套政府保障性住房的計(jì)劃，為不再負(fù)擔(dān)得起在城市買房或租房的絕大多數(shù)中國居民提供住房。
   
This plan is intended to continue the investment and construction boom even as the commercial housing sector slows but it is also an attempt to address the widening disparities in Chinese society that have partly emerged as a result of such rapid growth.
該計(jì)劃的目的是在商品住房市場(chǎng)放緩之際繼續(xù)投資和建設(shè)熱潮，但也是中國政府解決日益擴(kuò)大的社會(huì)差距的一種嘗試——在一定程度上這是中國如此高速增長所造成的。
   
Indeed, the rise of the Chinese real estate market has been accompanied by a range of unintended side-effects.
實(shí)際上，中國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的興起一直伴隨著一系列意料之外的副作用。
   
Some analysts estimate that actual home ownership in major cities is probably closer to 45 per cent rather than the official 89 per cent, once the huge rural migrant population living in urban areas is taken into account.
一些分析師估計(jì)，如果把居住在城市中的龐大農(nóng)民工人口考慮在內(nèi)，中國主要城市的實(shí)際住房自有率可能接近45%，而不是官方所說的89%。
   
Local governments now rely heavily on land sales to real estate developers for a huge portion of their revenues and the requisition of land belonging to ordinary citizens is probably the single biggest source of serious social unrest in the country.
地方政府目前很大一部分財(cái)政收入都嚴(yán)重依賴向房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商出售土地，而向普通老百姓征地或許是中國嚴(yán)重社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩的一個(gè)最大來源。
   
While official data are often hard to interpret and recent readings show a mixed picture, the fate of the Chinese real estate market will have an impact on everyone from Australian miners to German exporters to US consumers.
盡管中國官方數(shù)據(jù)通常很難解讀，而且最近數(shù)據(jù)顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)好壞參半，中國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的命運(yùn)仍將影響從澳大利亞礦商到德國出口商乃至美國消費(fèi)者的所有人。
   
“From a macroeconomic perspective if you don’t understand Chinese property you probably don’t understand China,” says Mr Anderson. “And if you follow these commodities and industries [such as metals, cement, iron ore, coal, auto parts, construction equipment, power generation machinery etc], you are well advised to have the right call on the mainland property markets.”
安德森表示：“從宏觀角度看，如果你不理解中國房地產(chǎn)，你大概就不會(huì)理解中國。如果你在追蹤這些大宗商品和行業(yè)（比如金屬、水泥、鐵礦石、煤炭、汽車零部件、建筑設(shè)備、發(fā)電機(jī)械等等），你最好能對(duì)中國內(nèi)地的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)做出正確的判斷。”