微博用戶心情指數(shù)竟可預(yù)測(cè)股市行情

 

   

 

　　近日，科學(xué)家把股市道瓊斯指數(shù)與大眾心情曲線相互關(guān)聯(lián)，驚喜地發(fā)現(xiàn)相似率(股市曲線與大眾心情曲線)竟高達(dá)90%。　　

　　

　　The general mood among Twitter users can predict the rise and fall of the stock market almost a week in advance, a new study has found. A computer scientist in the US has discovered that the correlation between the Dow Jones and the collective public mood was almost 90 per cent accurate。

 

　　在股市里摸爬滾打了N年的股民們?nèi)f萬也沒有想到，預(yù)知股市究竟是“牛市”還是“熊市”提前一周查看微薄用戶的心情曲線圖便知。近日，科學(xué)家把道瓊斯指數(shù)與大眾心情曲線相互關(guān)聯(lián)，驚喜地發(fā)現(xiàn)他們之間的相似率(股市曲線與大眾心情曲線)竟高達(dá)90%。

　　The link raises the startling possibility that stockbrokers may one day be able to make bets on the stock market based purely on how people are feeling on Twitter and blogs。

 

　　這項(xiàng)調(diào)查讓股民們欣喜若狂，莫非是“買進(jìn)”還是“買出”再也不是盲目的賭博了，在做決定之前上微薄查查看身邊的朋友近期心情到底如何就可以？

　　“What we found was an accuracy of 87.6 percent in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average,” IU Associate Professor of Informatics Johan Bollen said。

 

　　教授Johan Bollen 說，民眾的心情高低起伏有預(yù)測(cè)道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)的能力，最確切的兩者相似率竟高達(dá)87.6%。

　　Earlier studies had found that blogs can be used to gauge the public mood. The theory was also being tested during a period of intense financial instability which mean that stock market fluctuations were far more dramatic than normal.‘This was probably one of the most difficult periods to predict,” Bollen told the magazine. “We had a presidential election, we had what looked to be financial Armageddon, we had the start of what has been the deepest and greatest recession since the 1930s。”

 

　　研究心情指數(shù)的工作小組還發(fā)現(xiàn)，普通的博客也可以“捕獲”大眾的心情。這項(xiàng)研究還將繼續(xù)應(yīng)用測(cè)試于“股市起伏不定的狀況”，從而進(jìn)一步證實(shí)理論的可能性。有專家稱，測(cè)試“股市震蕩狀況”也許是難度最高的，我們打算“參考?xì)v史”研究總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選時(shí)期、或者經(jīng)濟(jì)1930年最低谷時(shí)期看看是否與我們的論證相符合。

　　“If our algorithm was able to predict Dow Jones Industrial Average in that period, we figured that may establish some kind of lower baseline. It could do a lot better in other periods of time.”

 

　　如果實(shí)驗(yàn)?zāi)茏C明我們的“運(yùn)算方法”能準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)的話，我們想，我們就可以計(jì)算出“股市最低時(shí)期”的基線數(shù)值，經(jīng)濟(jì)操作就可以更方便運(yùn)行了。