怎樣從泡沫中獲益？

Over the last 13 years, investors have experienced some of the largest financial bubbles in history. Asian currencies rose and fell, technology and Internet shares suffered staggering losses, oil and other commodities rode a wild roller coaster, and the collapse of the housing market caused trillions of dollars of damage.
過去13年中，投資者經(jīng)歷了一系列歷史上最大的金融泡沫：亞洲貨幣升跌起落；科技及互聯(lián)網(wǎng)股遭受巨大損失；石油及其它商品價格波動如同過山車；而房市崩盤導(dǎo)致?lián)p失達數(shù)萬億美元。

Already, some see signs of new real-estate bubbles in markets like China, Australia, Canada and even smaller countries, such as Israel. Rather than aberrations, there's reason to think that financial bubbles have become more common.
而中國、澳大利亞、加拿大甚至以色列等較小國家，在有些人看來，已出現(xiàn)新的地產(chǎn)泡沫跡象。認為金融泡沫已更為常見并非不經(jīng)之談，而有其合理的理由。

And markets are more volatile -- as was evidenced on Friday when news reports of Securities and Exchange Commission charges against Goldman Sachs Group precipitated a sudden and sharp selloff.
當前市場更為波動，正如上周五所見，美國證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission)對高盛集團（Goldman Sachs Group）發(fā)出指控的新聞報道引發(fā)市場急劇拋售。

How can investors deal with the new environment?
投資者如何應(yīng)對這種新的投資環(huán)境呢？

Analysts offer a range of suggestions, including dropping buy-and-hold strategies, holding more cash and purchasing a range of downside protection, such as options and so-called inverse exchange-traded funds.
分析師們提供了一系列建議，諸如放棄“買入并持有”策略、持有更多現(xiàn)金，以及購買一些下行風(fēng)險保護產(chǎn)品，如期權(quán)及所謂的反向交易所上市基金等。

Competitive Investing競爭性投資

Among the reasons so many markets are surging to sky-high levels before tumbling to painful depths: Investors are able to chase almost any kind of trade today, thanks to new products, such as ETFs. Pressure has never been greater for investment pros to keep up with competitors, encouraging them to ape their rivals' trades. Also, more pros have embraced 'momentum' investing, buying investments as they move higher, and selling them as they fall, to try to ride the moves.
在眾多市場驟然沖高而后深跌的原因中，有一條是：因交易所上市基金(ETF)等新產(chǎn)品的推出，今天的投資者可追逐幾乎各種交易。投資專業(yè)人士面臨從未有過的巨大壓力要緊跟競爭者，由此促使他們模仿對手的交易。同時，更多的投資專業(yè)人士接受了動態(tài)投資策略，上揚時買入，回落時拋出，以緊跟市場節(jié)奏。

Meanwhile, globalization and other developments have pushed inflation lower, encouraging central bankers to drop interest rates so low that many investors have turned to cheap borrowed money for their trades, fueling financial bubbles. The free-flow of trading information also may have made markets more volatile and prone to wild trading.
同時，全球化及其它發(fā)展使得通脹放緩，各國央行由此保持低息，以致眾多投資者轉(zhuǎn)而通過低息借款來進行交易，加劇了金融泡沫。交易信息的自由流動可能也使市場更為波動，更易出現(xiàn)失控的交易行為。

'The size of the bubble is in direct proportion to the ease with which news and rumors can be spread and the ease with which people can then trade on these rumors,' says Aswath Damodaran, a professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University.
紐約大學(xué)斯特恩商學(xué)院(Stern School of Business at New York University)的金融學(xué)教授達莫達倫(Aswath Damodaran)說，泡沫的大小與消息及流言傳播的自由度及人們由此進行交易的自由度成正比。

The new environment presents unique challenges. It's often hard to identify a financial bubble. The surge in gold over the past few years strikes some analysts as dangerous. Global markets often move in lockstep today, making it harder to avoid a sharp downturn.
新環(huán)境帶來獨特的挑戰(zhàn)。金融泡沫通常難以界定。過去幾年金價躍升在部分分析師看來極為危險。而當今全球市場常常同步運行使得避免發(fā)生急劇下挫更為艱難。

But investors who adopt a perpetually worried outlook will miss out on big gains -- such as the 76% rise for the S&P 500 index since the market bottomed out just over a year ago.
但持長期看空觀點的投資者將會錯失豐厚盈利的機會，比如，就在一年前，市場觸底反彈，標準普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500 index)上漲幅度達76%。

Rather than predict how long markets will climb, or when they might tumble, a better idea is to embrace new strategies. For one thing, it's no longer safe to buy an investment and store it away. Taking profits after a big runup once was the mark of a timid investor; today, it's a sign of smarts.
與其預(yù)測市場會持續(xù)上漲多久，或市場何時下跌，還不如采取新的策略。原因之一是，買入一項投資并長期持有已不再安全。過去，投資者趁市場出現(xiàn)一波大反彈即獲利了結(jié)被視為膽小，而今，這卻是聰明的表現(xiàn)。

'One of the lessons from 2008 is that buy and hold is a much riskier proposition,' says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank.
芝加哥Harris Private Bank首席投資長埃布林(Jack Ablin)表示，2008年的一個教訓(xùn)是“買入并持有”建議具較高風(fēng)險。

Staying Liquid保持流動性

Just as important, investors need to make sure they're not stuck in hard-to-sell holdings if they might need to raise cash in the short term. Too many investors were caught in 2008 in investments that turned out to be quite illiquid, such as high-yielding money-market funds that held risky debt.
如果有短期現(xiàn)金需要，投資者需要確定不會陷于持有難以出手的投資產(chǎn)品中，這一點同樣重要。2008年有太多投資者被套入流動性極差的投資產(chǎn)品中，如被風(fēng)險債所累的高收益貨幣市場基金等產(chǎn)品。

Buying protection and having ample cash on hand also are musts. Some analysts recommend inverse ETFs, which provide a return that's the inverse of global markets or sectors. If markets tumble, these ETFs should rise in value.
購買保護性產(chǎn)品及手頭持有充足現(xiàn)金也是必須的。有分析師推薦反向ETF(inverse ETF)，該產(chǎn)品在全球市場或行業(yè)下滑時提供回報。如果市場下跌，這類ETF產(chǎn)品價格應(yīng)上漲。

An investor who is convinced that his portfolio will do well over the long haul and is unwilling to sell shares, but is still worried about a short-term market tumble, might place 5% of the value of his portfolio in shares of ProShares Short S&P500, an ETF that climbs when the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index falls.
投資者若確信其投資組合長期來看可盈利而不愿拋售，但又擔心市場會出現(xiàn)短期下滑，則可以其投資組合價值的5%購入做空標普500指數(shù)的ProShares Short S&P500，這種ETF產(chǎn)品在標普500指數(shù)下滑時會上漲。

That could provide cushion in an abrupt tumble. Investors holding heavy doses of shares of smaller companies can purchase the ProShares Short Russell2000, which rises when the small companies in the Russell 2000 drop.
這可在市場出現(xiàn)突然性下滑時提供緩沖。重倉小型公司股的投資者可購買做空羅素2000指數(shù)的ProShares Short Russell2000產(chǎn)品，這種產(chǎn)品在羅素2000指數(shù)成份股中小型公司股價下滑時反而上漲。

These ETFs sometimes don't track markets exactly, especially when trading gets volatile, so they're not a perfect solution.
這些ETF產(chǎn)品有時并不切合市場走勢，特別是在交易極為波動之時，因而并非完美的解決方案。

Another option is to choose a 'tactical asset' or 'tactical-allocation' mutual fund, or one that shifts among various assets, in an attempt to avoid getting caught in a painful downturn. One example: the Pimco All Asset Fund.
另一種方案是選擇“戰(zhàn)術(shù)性資產(chǎn)”或“戰(zhàn)術(shù)性配置”共同基金，或者說是在不同資產(chǎn)間轉(zhuǎn)換的產(chǎn)品，以避免在大跌中被套。例如：Pimco 全資產(chǎn)基金( Pimco All Asset Fund)。

Cash at the Ready備足現(xiàn)金

The simplest form of protection is holding ample cash. Today, money-market funds pay puny returns, but that's not a steep price to pay for both safety and the ability to re-enter a market after a tumble.
具直接的保護方式是持有充足現(xiàn)金。目前，貨幣市場基金回報微乎其乎，但考慮到安全性及在市場下跌后有資金重新入市，付出這種代價并不過高。

'Investors must be more willing to employ cash as a legitimate asset class,' says Mr. Ablin.
埃布林說，投資者必須更樂于將現(xiàn)金當做一類可合理運作的資產(chǎn)。

Investors need to have more cash on hand than in the past, argues Jeff Fishman, who runs JSF Financial, a Los Angeles-based financial-advisory firm.
洛杉磯的一家金融咨詢公司JSF Financial 的管理人菲什曼（Jeff Fishman）說，投資者手頭的現(xiàn)金要比以往多才行。

In the past, he recommended that investors hold cash equating to three to six months of living expenses. But on the heels of the markets' turbulence over the past decade, he now advises they hold cash amounting to six to 12 months of living expenses, especially since banks have slashed or eliminated home-equity lines of credit to many individuals, something many relied on as a safety net.
過去，他推薦投資者手頭持有相當于三至六月生活開支的現(xiàn)金。但鑒于過去10年市場動蕩，目前他建議投資者持有相當于六至12個月生活開支的現(xiàn)金，特別是從各銀行針對眾多個人削減或取消了家庭資產(chǎn)類貸款以來，這種貸款被許多人視為現(xiàn)金來源的安全保證。

Mr. Fishman is a fan of shorter-term tax-free bond funds, such as the Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund and the AIM Tax-Free Intermediate Fund, as good places to stash short-term funds.
菲什曼熱衷于短期免稅型債券基金，像先鋒短期免稅基金(Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund)及另類投資市場免稅中間基金(AIM Tax-Free Intermediate Fund)，均是存放短期資金的不錯去處。