谷歌真要成為“古歌”

萬維網要完了。如果谷歌(Google)兌現其退出中國的威脅（以互聯網用戶數計，中國是全球最大市場），那么中國的互聯網可能很快成為一個“國內網”。

So much for the world wide web. If Google follows through on its threat to quit China, the world's largest market by internet users, China could be on the way to becoming a one-country intranet.

谷歌此前對政府干預的容忍度很高。自2000年該公司開始提供中文搜索門戶以來，谷歌忍受住了頻繁的封鎖和有關它提供色情和庸俗內容的指責。然而，明顯侵入用戶電子郵件賬戶的行為，是另一種性質的事情。

Google has had a high tolerance for state meddling. Since 2000, when the company began offering a Chinese-language portal, it has endured frequent blocks and accusations that it was purveying porn and vulgarity. But the apparent hacking of users' email accounts is of another order.

鑒于谷歌向來是一家喜歡戲劇化的公司，它把退出中國的威脅包裝為原則性立場的努力，并不能令人完全信服。幾乎可以肯定的是，美國政府日益高分貝的反審查言論，使谷歌的脊梁骨硬了起來。但谷歌的中國增長戰(zhàn)略（盡管容易遭遇挫折）正在奏效。不錯，北京易觀國際(Analysys International)的數據顯示，與谷歌形似、對審查內容沒有什么異議的本土搜索網站百度(Baidu)，在去年前三個季度平均占據中國付費搜索市場62%的份額，谷歌的份額則為30%。但在2006年同期，谷歌的份額平均僅為15%，百度則為50%。初步數據顯示，去年第四季度谷歌的市場份額升至35%，而正在安裝新廣告系統(tǒng)的百度，份額則下滑至58%。谷歌去年前三個季度的中國搜索營收估計為2.34億美元，較2006年增長近10倍，該公司不會輕易放棄這些營收。

Efforts to portray this as a principled stand are not wholly convincing, from a company given to self-dramatisation. Google's spine has almost certainly been stiffened by some increasingly anti-censorship rhetoric from the US government. But the China growth strategy, if prone to setbacks, was working. Yes, Baidu – the lookalike Chinese site, with few qualms over censoring its content – accounted for an average 62 per cent of China's paid-search market in the nine months to September, compared with 30 per cent for Google, according to Beijing-based Analysys International. But over the same period in 2006 Google had an average 15 per cent, Baidu 50 per cent. Provisional data suggests the US company increased its share to 35 per cent in the fourth quarter, while Baidu – installing a new advertising system – slipped to 58. Estimated search revenue for Google of 4m in the first three quarters of last year, up almost ten-fold from 2006, will not be surrendered lightly.

中國在試圖監(jiān)管日新月異的互聯網行業(yè)方面已變得手忙腳亂。對谷歌來說，網絡問題要向工業(yè)和信息化部報告；內容問題要向出版總署報告；娛樂問題要文化部和廣電總局報告。但即使沒有整體思維，北京方面也應該認識到，事實驅逐一家市值達1870億美元的公司不符合中國利益。去年，在公眾的強烈反對下，北京方面被迫放棄在每臺新出售的個人電腦上安裝綠壩(Green Dam)過濾軟件的企圖。谷歌與中國看來更有可能達成某種妥協(xié)。谷歌需要中國，中國也需要谷歌。

China has tied itself in knots trying to regulate a shape-shifting industry. Google reports to the Ministry for Information Industry on network issues, the Bureau of Publishing on content, the Ministry of Culture on entertainment, and the Bureau of Broadcasting and Film. But even without joined-up thinking, Beijing should realise that the de facto expulsion of a 7bn company is not in its interests. Last year a public backlash forced it to abandon attempts to install Green Dam filtering software in every new PC. Some kind of compromise looks more likely than not. Google needs China, and China needs Google.