全球高收益率債券銷售今年創(chuàng)新高

Sales of dollar junk bonds have hit all-time high levels in 2009, as issuers rush to tap strong global investor demand after a year in which the asset class has produced record returns.

美元垃圾債券銷售在2009年達到歷史最高水平。在過去一年該資產(chǎn)類別產(chǎn)生創(chuàng)紀錄的回報之后，債券發(fā)行人爭相利用全球投資者的強勁需求。

Total issuance so far this year of high-yield bonds, commonly known as junk, last week topped $144bn, passing the previous high of $143bn reached in 2006, according to Dealogic.

Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至上周，高收益率債券（俗稱垃圾債券）今年總發(fā)行量高達1440億美元，超過2006年1430億美元的前一歷史高點。

This marks a big reversal from last year, when investors shunned this corner of the credit markets.

這一現(xiàn)象與去年截然相反，當時投資者紛紛避開信貸市場的這個領域。

Returns on junk bonds this year are running at 56 per cent, according to a Merrill Lynch index, easily beating the previous record of a 39 per cent return in 1991.

美林證券(Merrill Lynch)的一個相關(guān)指數(shù)顯示，垃圾債券今年的回報率達到56%，輕松超過1991年39%的歷史紀錄。

The rally has taken many analysts and policymakers by surprise. Earlier in the year there was widespread concern that the sector would be ravaged by corporate defaults. Moody's Investors Service, for example, forecast that defaults would peak at 16.4 per cent among global companies with high-yield ratings.

垃圾債券的這番表現(xiàn)，令眾多分析師和決策者感到意外。今年初，各方曾普遍擔心該領域?qū)⒃獾狡髽I(yè)信貸違約的重創(chuàng)。比如，穆迪投資者服務(Moody's Investors Service)就預測說，全球高收益率評級公司的違約率峰值將達到16.4%。

Since then, the default rate has risen, and in November it was running at 12.7 per cent, or 250 defaults.

自那以后違約率即開始上升，到11月份已達12.7%，即250起違約案例。

However, Moody's now thinks that this global default rate has peaked and will fall sharply next year, to about 4 per cent. Other forecasters predict a similar path.

然而，穆迪現(xiàn)在認為，該全球違約率已經(jīng)見頂，并會在明年大幅下降至4%左右。其它機構(gòu)也給出了類似預測。

These projections, coupled with government support measures for the capital markets, have sparked a big rally in junk bond prices, with an associated fall in yields.

這些預測，加上政府對資本市場的支持措施，引發(fā)垃圾債券價格大幅上揚，債券收益率相應下降。