VOA慢速英語：IMF削減經(jīng)濟增長，預(yù)計明年經(jīng)濟將陷入衰退

IMF cuts growth, forecasts recession next year
 
WASHINGTON - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered bad news for the global economy over the past week. The IMF cut global growth next year to 2.7 percent, warned of sovereign debt defaults and forecast a recession and a bleak market outlook.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva spoke at the week-long annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank multilateral lenders in Washington. "It's tough, but we can meet these challenges," said the audience.

International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas Tweeting some gloomy global economic outlook data on Tuesday, he said: "2023 will feel like a recession for many."

World Bank President David Malpass (David Malpass), IMF Managing Director Georgieva and many prominent economists believe that the global economic slowdown has several factors. War in Ukraine, the pandemic, inflation, a slowing Chinese economy, climate change and a stronger dollar have raised the risk of recession, they said, and "the worst is yet to come", the Financial Times reported on the multilateral lender Agency's latest global outlook.
Growing high-cost debt

Economists believe that high-cost debt and the growing difficulty many countries have in servicing their debt are painful realities. They fear sovereign defaults and expect more debt restructuring requests from emerging and developing economies.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said about 60 percent of low-income countries were either facing debt stress or were at high risk of debt stress.

Elena Duggar, chair of Moody's Macroeconomic Council, predicts that sovereign default rates will rise in the coming years.

Dugger said: "By 2022, we have had six sovereign debt defaults." In general, one or two sovereign debt defaults may occur a year, she said. A sovereign default occurs when a country cannot pay its debts.

Gopinath said: "We do have a number of countries facing sovereign default challenges, several from sub-Saharan."

As she spoke, Some members of the hall could be heard shouting, "Cancel all debts and pay immediately." Some protesters outside the World Bank building also called for greater transparency in the debt mechanism.
High borrowing costs are a major concern. IMF Managing Director Georgieva said at the start of its annual meeting that rising interest rates will start to become a problem.

The United Nations highlighted the global debt crisis in its report Tuesday and called for debt relief for 54 countries around the world. Pakistan, Tunisia, Chad, Sri Lanka and Zambia are seen as facing the most immediate risk of falling into a deepening debt crisis.

The International Monetary Fund said on Saturday it had reached a staff-level agreement with Tunisia on a $1.9 billion bailout package under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

The IMF also resumed its support programme for Pakistan, approving $1.7 billion to Islamabad in August this year.

Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar told Reuters on Friday that he would seek to reschedule about $27 billion of non-Paris Club debt, most of which was owed to China.
Impact on prices

Guranza expects global inflation to hit 9.5% in the remaining months of 2022. He expects that to drop to 4.1 percent by 2024.

However, his forecast for next year is gloomy, which he says will be a recessionary year for many around the world.

Inflation remains the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and destabilizing macroeconomics, he tweeted on Monday.

However, inflation rates in many developing countries are not in line with global forecasts by the IMF's chief economist. British grocery prices climbed to 13.9% in September, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

Inflation in Egypt jumped 15 percent on Tuesday, the highest level in the past four years, according to Egypt's state-run central public mobilization and census agency.

The World Bank expects inflation to rise to 23 percent next year in Pakistan, a country with about $130 billion in debt.
 
 
中文翻譯： 
IMF削減經(jīng)濟增長，預(yù)計明年經(jīng)濟將陷入衰退
華盛頓 —
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在過去一周給全球經(jīng)濟帶來了壞消息。IMF將明年的全球經(jīng)濟增長率下調(diào)至2.7%，警告主權(quán)債務(wù)違約，并預(yù)測經(jīng)濟衰退和市場前景黯淡。
 
國際貨幣基金組織總裁克里斯塔利娜•格奧爾基耶娃(Kristalina Georgieva)在華盛頓舉行的國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行多邊貸款機構(gòu)為期一周的年度會議上對聽眾表示:“這是艱難的，但我們能夠應(yīng)對這些挑戰(zhàn)。”
 
國際貨幣基金組織首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家皮埃爾-奧利維耶• 古蘭沙(Pierre Olivier Gourinchas)周二在推特上發(fā)布了一些悲觀的全球經(jīng)濟前景數(shù)據(jù)，他說:“對很多人來說，2023年將感覺是一場衰退。”
 
世界銀行行長戴維·馬爾帕斯(David Malpass)、國際貨幣基金組織總裁格奧爾基耶娃和許多知名經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為，全球經(jīng)濟放緩有幾個因素。他們說，烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭、疫情、通貨膨脹、中國經(jīng)濟放緩、氣候變化和美元走強，引發(fā)了經(jīng)濟衰退的風(fēng)險，而“最糟糕的情況還在后頭”，《金融時報》在報道這家多邊貸款機構(gòu)最新的全球前景時表示。
 
日益增長的高成本債務(wù)
 
經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為，高成本的債務(wù)和許多國家在償還債務(wù)方面日益增加的困難是痛苦的現(xiàn)實。他們擔(dān)心主權(quán)違約，并預(yù)計新興和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體會提出更多債務(wù)重組要求。
 
IMF第一副總裁吉塔•戈皮納特(Gita Gopinath)表示，約60%的低收入國家要么面臨債務(wù)壓力，要么面臨債務(wù)壓力的高風(fēng)險。
 
穆迪公司宏觀經(jīng)濟理事會主席艾琳娜•達格爾(Elena Duggar)預(yù)測，主權(quán)債務(wù)違約率將在未來幾年上升。
 
達格爾說:“到2022年，我們已經(jīng)發(fā)生了6起主權(quán)債務(wù)違約。”她說，一般情況下，一年可能會發(fā)生一到兩次主權(quán)債務(wù)違約。當一個國家無法償還債務(wù)時，就會發(fā)生主權(quán)違約。
 
戈皮納特說:“我們確實有許多國家面臨主權(quán)違約的挑戰(zhàn)，其中有幾個來自撒哈拉以南地區(qū)。”
 
在她講話時，可以聽到大廳里一些成員的呼喊，說“取消所有債務(wù)，立即賠償。”世行大樓外的一些抗議者還呼吁提高債務(wù)機制的透明度。
 
借貸成本高是一個重大問題。國際貨幣基金組織總裁格奧爾基耶娃在年度會議開始時表示，利率上升將開始成為一個問題。
 
聯(lián)合國星期二在報告中強調(diào)了全球債務(wù)危機，并呼吁減免世界上54個國家的債務(wù)。巴基斯坦、突尼斯、乍得、斯里蘭卡和贊比亞被認為面臨著陷入日益加深的債務(wù)危機的最直接風(fēng)險。
 
國際貨幣基金組織周六表示，它與突尼斯就一項 19 億美元的紓困計劃在擴展基金機制（EFF）下達成了工作人員級別的協(xié)議。
 
國際貨幣基金組織還恢復(fù)了對巴基斯坦的支持計劃，并于今年8月批準向伊斯蘭堡提供17億美元。
 
巴基斯坦財政部長伊沙克·達爾(Ishaq Dar)周五對路透表示，他將尋求對約270億美元的非巴黎俱樂部債務(wù)的償還期限進行重新安排，其中大部分是欠中國的。
 
對價格的影響
 
古蘭沙預(yù)計，在2022年剩下的幾個月里，全球通脹率將達到9.5%。他預(yù)計，到2024年，這一比例將降至4.1%。
 
然而，他對明年的預(yù)測是悲觀的，他稱明年對世界上許多人來說，將是衰退之年。
 
他星期一在推特上說:“通貨膨脹通過擠壓實際收入和破壞宏觀穩(wěn)定，仍然是對當前和未來繁榮最直接的威脅。”
 
然而，許多發(fā)展中國家的通貨膨脹率與IMF首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家對全球的預(yù)測不符。據(jù)英國《金融時報》周二報道，9月份英國食品雜貨價格攀升至13.9%。
 
據(jù)埃及國營的中央公共動員和人口普查機構(gòu)稱，周二，埃及的通貨膨脹率上漲15%，為過去四年來的最高水平。
 
世界銀行預(yù)計明年巴基斯坦的通貨膨脹率將上升到23%，而這個國家大約有1300億美元的債務(wù)。