The following appeared in a memo from the director of a large group of hospitals.
“In a laboratory study of liquid antibacterial hand soaps, a concentrated solution of UltraClean produced a 40 percent greater reduction in the bacteria population than did the liquid hand soaps currently used in our hospitals. During a subsequent test of UltraClean at our hospital in Workby, that hospital reported significantly fewer cases of patient infection than did any of the other hospitals in our group. Therefore, to prevent serious patient infections, we should supply UltraClean at all hand-washing stations throughout our hospital system.”
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
五問:
(1)“Therefore, to prevent serious patient infections, we should supply UltraClean at all hand-washing stations throughout our hospital system”是結(jié)論,其余部分是事實(shí),值得反駁嗎?同學(xué)們在讀題干時(shí)應(yīng)該注意到,本文是由一個(gè)大型醫(yī)療集團(tuán)的董事(而非某一家醫(yī)院的主管)記錄的一個(gè) memo,因此,我們可以知道,最終得出的結(jié)論是針對(duì)集團(tuán)旗下所有的醫(yī)院而非某一家特定的醫(yī)院。
(2)是否有可能 UltraClean殺死的細(xì)菌只是比較弱的細(xì)菌,而不是能夠?qū)е禄颊吒腥镜募?xì)菌?
(3)實(shí)驗(yàn)室的情形能夠完全照搬到現(xiàn)實(shí)當(dāng)中嗎?你能否說說有哪些情形可能會(huì)影響實(shí)驗(yàn)室的研究結(jié)果?例如:實(shí)驗(yàn)效果可能會(huì)受到現(xiàn)實(shí)環(huán)境中的溫度、其他化學(xué)或物理因素的影響,從而導(dǎo)致效果減弱或無效。
(4)一家醫(yī)院的情形能夠輕易地推廣到所有的醫(yī)院嗎?醫(yī)院和醫(yī)院之間可能有哪些不同?你能具體地羅列一兩個(gè)要素嗎?例如:醫(yī)院的醫(yī)療設(shè)備、經(jīng)費(fèi)預(yù)算和病患的康復(fù)環(huán)境等。
(5)在沒給出基數(shù)的前提下討論 fewer cases有參考意義嗎?例如:使用該洗手液之前 100個(gè)病人中有 10個(gè)病人感染,而使用之后 50個(gè)病人中有 8個(gè)病人感染,能說該洗手液的效果更好嗎?另外,感染的病人減少一定是因?yàn)閱⒂昧诵滦偷南词忠簡??是否可能有其他因素影響了這個(gè)結(jié)果?你能羅列一兩個(gè)嗎?例如:醫(yī)院加強(qiáng)了對(duì)環(huán)境消毒滅菌的監(jiān)督管理,加強(qiáng)了對(duì)感染源的監(jiān)測。
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