劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 30

Day 30 The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago

The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.

“The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五問：

（1）“The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago”是事實，“we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade”和“At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities”是結論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）出生率的降低一定會影響公立學校的入學人數(shù)嗎？公立學校的入學人數(shù)受哪些因素影響？除了出生率之外，你能再羅列出一兩個嗎？并且請詳細地說說這些因素會如何影響公立學校的入學人數(shù)。例如：公立學校的教學質(zhì)量、學費也會影響入學人數(shù)，教育質(zhì)量高、學費比私立學校低，入學人數(shù)也會相應增加。

（3）減少在教育方面的支出是不是一個合理的選擇？特別是要將這一政策延續(xù)到下一個十年——這個年限是合適的嗎？有哪些因素將會影響這一年限的合理性？例如，十年內(nèi)人口出生率又增長了。

（4）是否應該因為出生率降低而減少對體育及娛樂活動的支持力度？除了出生率之外，還有哪些因素會影響我們對于體育活動及娛樂活動的支持？例如，該市出了很多奧運冠軍，或該市老年人口特別多等。

（5）出生率降低就意味著成年人口數(shù)量一定會增加嗎？人口死亡率呢？即使成年人口數(shù)量增加了，就一定要增加成年人使用的城市設施和項目嗎？也許現(xiàn)有的設施已經(jīng)足夠用了。