演講MP3+雙語文稿:什么是“灰犀牛”：如何應(yīng)對(duì)大概率危機(jī)

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【演講者及介紹】Michele Wucker

米歇爾?庫克(Michele Wucker)——作家、政策分析家，創(chuàng)造了“灰犀?！?gray rhino)一詞，用來比喻那些被忽視的明顯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

【演講主題】解讀“灰犀?！保喝绾螒?yīng)對(duì)大概率危機(jī)

【中英文字幕】

Translation by Rachel Zhu. Reviewed by Yuhan Wu.

00:13

So what if there were a highly obviousproblem right in front of you? One that everyone was talking about, one thataffected you directly. Would you do everything within your power to fix thingsbefore they got worse? Don't be so sure. We are all much more likely than anyof us would like to admit to miss what's right in front of our eyes. And infact, we're sometimes most likely to turn away from things precisely because ofthe threat that they represent to us, in business, life and the world.

假如有一個(gè)非常明顯的問題擺在你面前，一個(gè)所有人都在討論的，直接影響你的問題。請(qǐng)問你會(huì)在事情變得更糟糕之前，盡你所能去解決它嗎？不要太確定你的答案。我們比那些肯承認(rèn)自己會(huì)錯(cuò)過的人更有可能錯(cuò)過那些在眼前發(fā)生的事情。而且就事實(shí)上來說，有時(shí)我們更有可能逃避事情的原因正是來自這些事情給我們的，在事業(yè)方面，生活方面，乃至世界方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

00:55

So I want to give you an example from myworld, economic policy. So when Alan Greenspan was head of the Federal Reserve,his entire job was to watch out for problems in the US economy and to make surethat they didn't spin out of control. So, after 2006, when real estate pricespeaked, more and more and more respected leaders and institutions started tosound the alarm bells about risky lending and dangerous market bubbles. As youknow, in 2008 it all came tumbling down. Banks collapsed, global stock marketslost nearly half their value, millions and millions of people lost their homes toforeclosure. And at the bottom, nearly one in 10 Americans was out of work.

我想舉一個(gè)我身邊的例子——經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。當(dāng)阿蘭·格林斯潘還是聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備局局長的時(shí)候他的整個(gè)工作就是小心地監(jiān)督美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在問題，并確保它們沒有失去控制。所以，2006年以后，當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格達(dá)到頂峰的時(shí)候，越來越多有名望的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和機(jī)構(gòu)開始敲響 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)貸款和危險(xiǎn)市場泡沫的警鐘。如各位所知，200年一切都轟然倒塌。銀行倒閉，全世界的股票市場丟失了接近一半的價(jià)值，數(shù)百萬人失去他們作為抵押的家園。而在社會(huì)基層，將近十分之一的美國人失業(yè)了。

01:48

So after things calmed down a little bit,Greenspan and many others came out with a postmortem and said, "Nobodycould have predicted that crisis." They called it "a blackswan." Something that was unimaginable, unforeseeable and completelyimprobable. A total surprise. Except it wasn't always such a surprise. Forexample, my Manhattan apartment nearly doubled in value in less than fouryears. I saw the writing on the wall and I sold it.

所以在事情緩和了一些以后，格林斯潘和許多人從這個(gè)低谷中走出來說：“沒有人會(huì)有可能提前預(yù)知這場危機(jī)。”他們叫它“黑天鵝”。一個(gè)很難想象的，不可預(yù)知并且完全難以置信的事情。一場徹頭徹尾的驚喜。只是它不總是一個(gè)驚喜。比如說，我在曼哈頓的公寓在不到四年的時(shí)間里價(jià)值幾乎翻了一倍。我獲得了一些信息，于是我將它出售了。

02:25

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

02:27

(Applause)

（掌聲）

02:31

So, a lot of other people also saw thewarning, spoke out publicly and they were ignored. So we didn't know exactlywhat the crisis was going to look like, not the exact parameters, but we couldall tell that the thing coming at us was as dangerous, visible and predictableas a giant gray rhino charging right at us.

總之，很多其他人也看到了同樣的警示，公開地說了出來，但是這些信息都被忽視了。所以我們并不準(zhǔn)確地知道這場危機(jī)到底會(huì)是什么模樣，不知道確切的參數(shù)，但是我們可以說這個(gè)即將到來的事情和一只向我們急速?zèng)_來的巨型灰犀牛一樣的危險(xiǎn)，可見，可預(yù)判。

02:57

The black swan lends itself to the ideathat we don't have power over our futures. And unfortunately, the less controlthat we think we have, the more likely we are to downplay it or ignore itentirely. And this dangerous dynamic masks another problem: that most of theproblems that we're facing are so probable and obvious, they're things that wecan see, but we still don't do anything about.

這只黑天鵝助長了我們的觀點(diǎn)，那就是我們無法掌控我們的未來。不幸的是，我們越是這樣想，我們就越有可能對(duì)之不予重視，甚至完全忽視它。這個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的情況還掩蓋了另一個(gè)問題：那就是我們所面對(duì)的困難都極有可能發(fā)生且極度明顯，它們是我們所能看見的，但是我們依然不采取任何措施。

03:29

So I created the gray rhino metaphor tomeet what I felt was an urgent need. To help us to take a fresh look, with thesame passion that people had for the black swan, but this time, for the thingsthat were highly obvious, highly probable, but still neglected. Those are thegray rhinos.

所以我引用了巨型灰犀牛的比喻，來描繪我所認(rèn)為的“急需”。為了幫助我們煥然一新，用我們曾經(jīng)對(duì)待“黑天鵝”那樣的熱情，但這次為了非常明顯的事件，很可能發(fā)生，但是依然被忽視的事件。那些事件就是灰犀牛。

03:53

Once you start looking for gray rhinos, yousee them in the headlines every day. And so what I see in the headlines isanother big gray rhino, a new highly probable financial crisis. And I wonder ifwe've learned anything in the last 10 years.

一旦你開始尋找這種動(dòng)物，你就會(huì)每天都在頭條看到它的名字。然而我在頭條所看到的是另外一頭灰犀牛。一個(gè)全新的，極有可能發(fā)生的金融危機(jī)。于是我在想我們是否真的從過去的十年里學(xué)到了什么。

04:12

So if you listen to Washington or WallStreet, you could almost be forgiven for thinking that only smooth sailing laidahead. But in China, where I spend a lot of time, the conversation is totallydifferent. The entire economic team, all the way up to president Xi Jinpinghimself, talk very specifically and clearly about financial risks as grayrhinos, and how they can tame them. Now, to be sure, China and the US havevery, very different systems of government, which affects what they're able todo or not. And many of the root causes for their economic problems are totallydifferent. But it's no secret that both countries have problems with debt, withinequality and with economic productivity.

如果你是從華盛頓或者華爾街聽到的消息，你認(rèn)為一切順利就情有可原。但是在中國，一個(gè)我投入了許多時(shí)間研究的國家，對(duì)話內(nèi)容完全不一樣。所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)小組，一直到習(xí)近平總書記本人，都會(huì)很清晰具體地講述經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并用上灰犀牛的比喻，并且討論他們會(huì)怎樣制服它。很明顯，中國和美國有著差異很大的政府系統(tǒng)，這影響著他們的能力范圍，并且兩個(gè)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題根源也完全不同。雖說如此，兩國都存在問題已不是秘密。例如債務(wù)，不平等和經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)力。

05:03

So how come the conversations are sodifferent? You could actually ask this question, not just about countries, butabout just about everyone. The auto companies that put safety first and theones that don't bother to recall their shoddy cars until after people die. Thegrandparents who, in preparing for the inevitable -- the ones who have theeulogy written, the menu for the funeral lunch.

到底為何這些對(duì)話如此不同？其實(shí)這個(gè)問題不僅適用于國家，也適用于每個(gè)人。那些把安全放在第一位的汽車公司，和一些從不考慮召回他們的劣質(zhì)汽車的公司，直到有人喪命。那些為不可避免的離世而做準(zhǔn)備的祖父母——那些已經(jīng)將寫好悼詞和葬禮午餐菜單的，

05:35

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

05:36

My grandparents did.

我的祖父母就這樣做了，

05:37

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

05:39

And everything but the final date chiseledinto the gravestone. But then you have the grandparents on the other side, whodon't put their final affairs in order, who don't get rid of all the junkthey've been hoarding for decades and decades and leave their kids to deal withit.

包括所有其他的事情，除了刻到墳?zāi)股系淖詈笕掌?。但?dāng)你又有與我相反的祖父母，他們不規(guī)劃自己臨終時(shí)的事情，他們不輕易擺脫掉那些他們已經(jīng)囤積了數(shù)十載的廢舊物品，并且留給他們的子女去解決。

05:56

So what makes the difference between oneside and the other? Why do some people see things and deal with them, and theother ones just look away? So the first one has to do with culture, society,the people around you. If you think that someone around you is going to help pickyou up when you fall, you're much more likely to see a danger as being smaller.And that allows us to take good chances, not just the bad ones. For example,like risking criticism when you talk about the danger that nobody wants you totalk about. Or taking the opportunities that are kind of scary, so in their ownway are gray rhinos. So the US has a very individualist culture -- go it alone.And paradoxically, this makes many Americans much less open to change andtaking good risks. In China, by contrast, people believe that the government isgoing to keep problems from happening, which might not always be what happens,but people believe it. They believe they can rely on their families, so thatmakes them more likely to take certain risks. Like buying Beijing real estate,or like being more open about the fact that they need to change direction, andin fact, the pace of change in China is absolutely amazing.

那么兩種方式的差別在哪里？為什么有的人會(huì)注意到問題并解決，而其他人僅會(huì)無視？首先是與文化和社會(huì)因素有關(guān)。那些你身邊的人如果你認(rèn)為在你遇到困難的時(shí)候，你身邊的人會(huì)幫助你，那么你極有可能會(huì)忽視一些危險(xiǎn)。那么這就使我們能夠把握好機(jī)會(huì)，而不是壞的。比如對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)判，當(dāng)你談到?jīng)]有人愿意跟你聊的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或者把握住有一點(diǎn)嚇人的機(jī)會(huì)。那么對(duì)于他們而言，這是經(jīng)常被提示卻未被重視的大概率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，即“灰犀牛”。在美國就有一種個(gè)人主義的文化——獨(dú)自完成。矛盾的是，這使得很多美國人更不敢去改變，并且承擔(dān)有回報(bào)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在中國，與之相反，人民相信政府會(huì)把問題在根源解決，其實(shí)事實(shí)上并不總?cè)绱?，但是人民選擇相信。他們相信他們可以依靠他們的家庭，這樣讓他們更有能力承擔(dān)相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，像是在北京買房，或者在面對(duì)需要改變目標(biāo)或方向時(shí)更加從容，并且事實(shí)上，中國改變的速度是驚人的。

07:15

Second of all, how much do you know about asituation, how much are you willing to learn? And are you willing to see thingseven when it's not what you want? So many of us are so unlikely to pay attentionto the things that we just want to black out, we don't like them. We payattention to what we want to see, what we like, what we agree with. But we havethe opportunity and the ability to correct those blind spots. I spend a lot oftime talking with people of all walks of life about the gray rhinos in theirlife and their attitudes. And you might think that the people who are moreafraid of risk, who are more sensitive to them, would be the ones who would beless open to change. But the opposite is actually true. I've found that thepeople who are wiling to recognize the problems around them and make plans arethe ones who are able to tolerate more risk, good risk, and deal with the badrisk. And it's because as we seek information, we increase our power to dosomething about the things that we're afraid of.

其次，你對(duì)當(dāng)下的情況了解多少，你是否意愿去學(xué)習(xí)？以及你是否愿意看到你其實(shí)并不想看到的事情，我們很多人不太可能愿意去關(guān)注我們想要屏蔽的事情，我們不喜歡它們。我們會(huì)注意想看到的，喜歡以及認(rèn)同的事情。但是我們有能力和機(jī)會(huì)去矯正那些盲點(diǎn)。我花了很多時(shí)間和各行各業(yè)的人交流關(guān)于他們?nèi)松械摹盎蚁！焙退麄儗?duì)此的態(tài)度。你可能會(huì)認(rèn)為那些更加害怕去冒險(xiǎn)的人，那些對(duì)事情更敏感的人，會(huì)更難接受變動(dòng)。但是事實(shí)恰恰相反。我發(fā)現(xiàn)那些更愿意認(rèn)識(shí)到他們身邊的問題，并且做出計(jì)劃的人，才是更能夠承受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，好的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并解決壞風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的人。這是因?yàn)槲覀冊趯ふ倚畔r(shí)，我們會(huì)提高自己解決那些自己害怕的事情的能力。

08:21

And that brings me to my third point. Howmuch control do you feel that you have over the gray rhinos in your life? Oneof the reasons we don't act is that we often feel too helpless. Think ofclimate change, it can feel so big, that not a single one of us could make adifference. So some people go about life denying it. Other people blameeveryone except themselves. Like my friend who says he's not ever going to giveup his SUV until they stop building coal plants in China. But we have anopportunity to change. No two of us are the same. Every single one of us hasthe opportunity to change our attitudes, our own and those of people around us.

這就引出了我的第三個(gè)觀點(diǎn)。你對(duì)你人生中“灰犀?！钡陌芽赜械缴伲恳粋€(gè)我們很少表現(xiàn)出來的原因，就是我們經(jīng)常感到無助?？紤]到氣候變化的時(shí)候，它是一件如此大的事情，并不是我們中的任何一人可以獨(dú)自解決的。因此，有些人開始懷疑人生。其他人開始責(zé)怪除他們自己以外的所有人。就像我朋友曾經(jīng)說的，他永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)放棄他的SUV，除非他們停止在中國挖油田。但是我們有機(jī)會(huì)去改變。沒有任何兩個(gè)人是一樣的。我們每一個(gè)人都有機(jī)會(huì)去改變我們的態(tài)度，我們自己和身邊人的態(tài)度。

09:06

So today, I want to invite all of you tojoin me in helping to spark an open and honest conversation with the peoplearound you, about the gray rhinos in our world, and be brutally honest abouthow well we're dealing with them. I hear so many times in the States,"Well, of course we should deal with obvious problems, but if you don'tsee what's in front of you, you're either dumb or ignorant." That's whatthey say, and I could not disagree more. If you don't see what's in front ofyou, you're not dumb, you're not ignorant, you're human. And once we allrecognize that shared vulnerability, that gives us the power to open our eyes,to see what's in front of us and to act before we get trampled.

所以今天，我想要邀請(qǐng)你們所有人同我一起開展一個(gè)開誠布公的對(duì)話，和你們身邊的人討論那些我們生活中的“灰犀牛”們，并且絕對(duì)坦誠地聊一下我們會(huì)如何完美地解決它們。我在美國聽過太多次“我們當(dāng)然需要解決那些問題，但是如果你看不見你面前的東西，那你要么是愚昧，要么是無知?！边@就是他們的說辭，而我非常不贊同。如果你看不見迫在眉睫的事務(wù)，你并不是愚昧，也不是無知，你只是個(gè)普通的人類。只要我們發(fā)現(xiàn)共有的脆弱，會(huì)給我們勇氣去睜開眼睛去看見眼前的事物，并在被踐踏前及時(shí)做出反應(yīng)。

10:01

(Applause)

（掌聲）