演講MP3+雙語文稿:人工智能來襲，人類如何立于不敗之地

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[00:03.33]【演講人及介紹】Andrew McAfee

管理理論家，Andrew McAfee研究信息技術(shù)如何影響企業(yè)和社會(huì)

【演講主題】人工智能來襲，人類如何立于不敗之地

【演講文稿-中英文】

翻譯者 Zheqing Fang

校對(duì)人員stas zhu

The writer George Eliot cautioned us that, among all forms of mistake, prophesy is the most gratuitous. The person that we would all acknowledge as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed. He said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

作家喬治·艾略特提醒我們， 在所有形式的錯(cuò)誤中， 預(yù)言是最沒有理由的。 我們都熟知的 20世紀(jì)的尤吉·貝拉，也同意這點(diǎn)。 他說，“很難做出預(yù)測， 尤其是關(guān)于未來"。

00:31

I'm going to ignore their cautions and make one very specific forecast. In the world that we are creating very quickly, we're going to see more and more things that look like science fiction, and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs. Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves, which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers. We're going to hook Siri up to Watson and use that to automate a lot of the work that's currently done by customer service reps and troubleshooters and diagnosers, and we're already taking R2D2, painting him orange, and putting him to work carrying shelves around warehouses, which means we need a lot fewer people to be walking up and down those aisles.

不過我要無視這些提醒 并作出一個(gè)非常具體的預(yù)測。 當(dāng)今世界我們正在飛速創(chuàng)造， 我們會(huì)看到越來越多的新事物 看起來像是科幻小說， 以及越來越少看起來像工作的事物。 我們的車很快要開始自動(dòng)駕駛， 這意味著我們用不著那么多的卡車司機(jī)了。 我們要把Siri和沃森（人工智能程序）結(jié)合 用它來自動(dòng)完成大量的工作 而這些工作目前通過客服人員 維修人員和分析師來完成， 我們就已經(jīng)造出了R2D2， 把它涂成橙色，讓它去工作 將貨架運(yùn)往各地倉庫， 這意味著我們需越來越少的人 在那些通道上走來走去。

01:11

Now, for about 200 years, people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you -- the age of technological unemployment is at hand — starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain just about two centuries ago, and they have been wrong. Our economies in the developed world have coasted along on something pretty close to full employment.

今為止的 200多年， 人們一直在熱議我現(xiàn)在所說的內(nèi)容 關(guān)于“技術(shù)性失業(yè)”的時(shí)代已經(jīng)來臨 — — 始于盧德派（反科技人士）在英國搗毀織布機(jī) 這發(fā)生在大約兩個(gè)世紀(jì)前， 但他們的預(yù)言錯(cuò)了。 我們一路至今的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 幾乎是接近充分就業(yè)。

01:31

Which brings up a critical question: Why is this time different, if it really is? The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years, our machines have started demonstrating skills they have never, ever had before: understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing, answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills. For example, mobile humanoid robots are still incredibly primitive, but the research arm of the Defense Department just launched a competition to have them do things like this, and if the track record is any guide, this competition is going to be successful. So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all when we're going to have androids doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now. And we're creating a world where there is going to be more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs. It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling "the new machine age."

這就引申出一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的問題： 如果技術(shù)性失業(yè)是真的，那預(yù)言為何沒有成真？ 導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)實(shí)與預(yù)言不符的原因是，我們的機(jī)器 在最近幾年才開始展示出前所未有的技能 這些技能包括： 理解、說話、 聽、 看、 應(yīng)答、 寫作，并且他們還在掌握新的技能。 例如，移動(dòng)的仿人機(jī)器人 仍然很原始 但國防部的研究機(jī)構(gòu) 剛剛啟動(dòng)了一項(xiàng)競賽 要這些機(jī)器人做上面的工作， 如果跟蹤記錄是可以借鑒的， 這次競賽將會(huì)非常成功。 所以當(dāng)我環(huán)顧四周，我覺得那天是不遠(yuǎn)了 當(dāng)我們通過機(jī)器人 做了很多我們現(xiàn)在在做的工作。 我們正在創(chuàng)造一個(gè)的技術(shù)越來越豐富 就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)卻越來越少的新世界 我和埃里克 · 布賴恩試圖將其命名為 "新機(jī)器時(shí)代"。

02:25

The thing to keep in mind is that this is absolutely great news. This is the best economic news on the planet these days. Not that there's a lot of competition, right? This is the best economic news we have these days for two main reasons. The first is, technological progress is what allows us to continue this amazing recent run that we're on where output goes up over time, while at the same time, prices go down, and volume and quality just continue to explode. Now, some people look at this and talk about shallow materialism, but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it. This is abundance, which is exactly what we want our economic system to provide. The second reason that the new machine age is such great news is that, once the androids start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore, and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.

要牢記的是， 這是非常好的消息。 這是地球上最好的經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞。 你會(huì)認(rèn)為機(jī)器人帶來了競爭，不是嗎？ 為何是最好的經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞 有兩個(gè)主要原因。 第一是，技術(shù)進(jìn)步使得我們 繼續(xù)維持令人驚嘆的產(chǎn)出 隨著時(shí)間推移繼續(xù)前進(jìn)， 與此同時(shí)，物價(jià)卻開始下降， 數(shù)量和質(zhì)量都持續(xù)上升。 現(xiàn)在，有些人看到這個(gè)會(huì)聯(lián)想到 淺層的唯物主義， 但這絕對(duì)是錯(cuò)誤的理解方式。 這種物質(zhì)豐富 正是我們對(duì)現(xiàn)有經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的期待。 第二個(gè)主要原因， 一旦機(jī)器人 開始承擔(dān)工作，我們就不需要再插手， 我們可以從辛苦的勞動(dòng)中解放出來。

03:21

Now, when I talk about this with my friends in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say, "Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil. This gives us the chance to imagine an entirely different kind of society, a society where the creators and the discoverers and the performers and the innovators come together with their patrons and their financiers to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten, provoke each other." It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference. And there's actually a huge amount of truth here. We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place. In a world where it is just about as easy to generate an object as it is to print a document, we have amazing new possibilities. The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists are now makers, and they're responsible for massive amounts of innovation. And artists who were formerly constrained can now do things that were never, ever possible for them before. So this is a time of great flourishing, and the more I look around, the more convinced I become that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson, is not hyperbole at all. This is just a plain statement of the facts. We are in the middle of an astonishing period.

現(xiàn)在，當(dāng)我與劍橋和硅谷的朋友提起此事 他們認(rèn)為， "太棒了。從此再?zèng)]有辛苦，再?zèng)]有勞累 這給了我們?nèi)ハ胂?一種全然不同的社會(huì)的機(jī)會(huì) 那里，創(chuàng)造者和發(fā)現(xiàn)者 表演者和創(chuàng)新者 與他們的贊助人和金融家們?cè)谝黄?談?wù)摰臒衢T話題，娛樂和啟蒙， 彼此啟迪"。 這樣的社會(huì)，看起來很像 TED 大會(huì)。 實(shí)際上大量的真相就在這里。 我們看到了令人驚異的蓬勃發(fā)展。 在這個(gè)我們可以像 打印文檔一樣生成物體的世界， 我們有令人驚異的無限可能。 那些曾經(jīng)的手藝人和業(yè)余愛好者 現(xiàn)在是決策者 負(fù)責(zé)大量的創(chuàng)新工作。 那些以前受到各種限制的藝術(shù)家 可以嘗試前所未有有的創(chuàng)作 遠(yuǎn)勝先人。 所以這是一個(gè)偉大的時(shí)期， 我們環(huán)顧四周，越發(fā)相信 物理學(xué)家弗里曼 · 戴森的箴言 一點(diǎn)都不夸張。 它只是對(duì)事實(shí)的平實(shí)陳述而已。 我們正處在一個(gè)非常時(shí)期。

04:34

Which brings up another great question: What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age? Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home. We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.

這就引出另一個(gè)大問題： 在這新的機(jī)器時(shí)代，哪些東西會(huì)走上岔路？ 對(duì)吧？太好了，蓬勃發(fā)展，回家去。 我們要面對(duì)兩大棘手的挑戰(zhàn) 當(dāng)進(jìn)一步靠近我們正在創(chuàng)造的未來

04:49

The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther, who was the head of the auto workers union. They were touring one of the new modern factories, and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says, "Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots to pay union dues?" And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry, how are you going to get them to buy cars?"

首先是經(jīng)濟(jì)方面， 這通過一個(gè)杜撰的故事已經(jīng)有很好的總結(jié) 故事關(guān)于亨利 · 福特二世（汽車生產(chǎn)商） 和沃爾特·魯瑟，汽車工人工會(huì)的領(lǐng)袖。 他們一起參觀最現(xiàn)代化的汽車工廠， 然后福特開玩笑地對(duì)魯瑟說： "嘿，沃爾特，你怎么讓這些機(jī)器人 來支付工會(huì)會(huì)費(fèi)?" 魯瑟回答，"嘿，亨利 你怎么能讓他們買你的車?"

05:16

Reuther's problem in that anecdote is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy that's full of machines, and we see this very clearly in the statistics. If you look over the past couple decades at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits -- we see them going up, and we see that they're now at an all-time high. If we look at the returns to labor, in other words total wages paid out in the economy, we see them at an all-time low and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.

在這個(gè)故事中，魯瑟面臨的問題 實(shí)質(zhì)上是面對(duì)一個(gè)充滿機(jī)器的經(jīng)濟(jì)體 很難去提供人的勞動(dòng)。 我們可以在統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)中，非常清楚地看到。 在過去的幾十年 資本收益 — — 換言之，企業(yè)利潤 — — 我們看到它們?cè)谠鲩L， 而且目前正是歷史最高水平。 如果我們對(duì)比一下勞動(dòng)力，換句話說 在經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，總工資的發(fā)放， 我們看到這一數(shù)據(jù)是空前的低 兩者非常迅速地朝著相反方向偏離。

05:47

So this is clearly bad news for Reuther. It looks like it might be great news for Ford, but it's actually not. If you want to sell huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people, you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class. We have had one of those in America for just about the entire postwar period. But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now. We all know a lot of the statistics, but just to repeat one of them, median income in America has actually gone down over the past 15 years, and we're in danger of getting trapped in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization continue to go up over time.

所以這就是魯瑟的壞消息（工人少，會(huì)費(fèi)少）。 但看起來它可能是福特的好消息， 然而實(shí)際上不是。如果你想要賣出 數(shù)量巨大的昂貴商品， 你需要一個(gè)大型的、 穩(wěn)定的、 繁榮的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)。 經(jīng)歷了整個(gè)戰(zhàn)后時(shí)期 美國已經(jīng)形成了這樣一個(gè)中產(chǎn)階級(jí) 但中產(chǎn)階層顯然正處在巨大的威脅中。 我們都知道很多統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)， 只提其中一個(gè)， 在美國，中產(chǎn)階級(jí)收入的減少 已經(jīng)持續(xù)了15年， 我們處在陷入持續(xù)惡化的 不平等與兩極分化的 惡性循環(huán)的危險(xiǎn)之中

06:28

The societal challenges that come along with that kind of inequality deserve some attention. There are a set of societal challenges that I'm actually not that worried about, and they're captured by images like this. This is not the kind of societal problem that I am concerned about. There is no shortage of dystopian visions about what happens when our machines become self-aware, and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us. I'm going to start worrying about those the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.

這些伴隨不平等現(xiàn)象帶來的 社會(huì)挑戰(zhàn)值得關(guān)注。 相比這些嚴(yán)峻的社會(huì)挑戰(zhàn) 我倒不會(huì)擔(dān)心這種 被機(jī)器人逆襲的危險(xiǎn)。 這不是我所擔(dān)心的 那種社會(huì)問題。 這個(gè)世界從不缺 當(dāng)我們的機(jī)器擁有自我意識(shí)， 并決定崛起和發(fā)動(dòng)對(duì)我們的攻擊的反烏托邦式幻想 但我要開始擔(dān)心的是 某一天我的電腦知道了打印機(jī)的存在。

06:57

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

07:01

So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about. To tell you the kinds of societal challenges that are going to come up in the new machine age, I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers. And to make them really stereotypical, let's make them both white guys. And the first one is a college-educated professional, creative type, manager, engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker. We're going to call him "Ted." He's at the top of the American middle class. His counterpart is not college-educated and works as a laborer, works as a clerk, does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy. We're going to call that guy "Bill."

所以機(jī)器人的進(jìn)攻并不是我們真正需要擔(dān)心的。 為了讓大家對(duì)新機(jī)器時(shí)代的社會(huì)挑戰(zhàn) 有更好的理解 我想講一個(gè)故事，關(guān)于兩個(gè)典型的美國工人。 為了使它們真正典型， 我們假設(shè)他們是兩個(gè)白人。 第一個(gè)是接受大學(xué)教育 專業(yè)的、 創(chuàng)造性的類型， 管理者，工程師、 醫(yī)生、 律師、 代表這類人群。 我們稱他為"Ted"。 他處在美國中產(chǎn)階級(jí)的頂層。 預(yù)制對(duì)應(yīng)的是未經(jīng)大學(xué)教育的 普通工人和職員， 低級(jí)白領(lǐng)或藍(lán)領(lǐng)工作者。 我們稱他為"Bill"。

07:42

And if you go back about 50 years, Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives. For example, in 1960 they were both very likely to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week. But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented, as we started to automate the economy, and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses, as we started to progressively inject technology and automation and digital stuff into the economy, the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot. Over this time frame, Ted has continued to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't. In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely, and Ted very rarely has. Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy. Bill's hasn't. And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home, while Bill's absolutely have not over time. Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society? He's decreased his voting in presidential elections, and he's started to go to prison a lot more often. So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends, and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves. They're also true no matter which ethnic group or demographic group we look at, and they're actually getting so severe that they're in danger of overwhelming even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.

如果在 50 年前， Bill和Ted這兩種人的生活差別不大。 例如，在 1960 年他們兩人都很有可能 有全職工作，一周工作 40 個(gè)小時(shí)。 但根據(jù)社會(huì)研究員查爾斯 · 默里的記載， 當(dāng)我們開始經(jīng)濟(jì)自動(dòng)化， 1960 年正是計(jì)算機(jī)開始進(jìn)入商用， 我們開始逐步將技術(shù) 自動(dòng)化和數(shù)字化注入經(jīng)濟(jì) Bill和Ted的命運(yùn)，偏離了很多。 在這時(shí)間軸上，Ted繼續(xù) 保持一份全職工作，Bill卻沒有。 在許多情況下，Bill已完全無法維持生計(jì)， 而Ted卻幾乎不會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種情況。 隨著時(shí)間的推移，Ted的婚姻一直很快樂。 Bill卻并非如此。 Ted的孩子們?cè)陔p親家庭中長大， 然而Bill的孩子卻沒有這么幸運(yùn)。 Bill會(huì)在其他方面與社會(huì)脫節(jié)嗎？ 越來越少的Bill參與總統(tǒng)選舉的投票 越來越多的Bill開始光顧監(jiān)獄。 我沒法給大家展示一個(gè)樂觀的社會(huì)趨勢(shì) 而他們(Bills)也沒有任何改變自己的跡象。 這是一個(gè)普遍的事實(shí)，無論是在哪一個(gè)民族 哪一個(gè)社會(huì)群體， 都已經(jīng)變得如此嚴(yán)重 這才是我所說的壓倒性的社會(huì)挑戰(zhàn) 即便我們?cè)诠駲?quán)利運(yùn)動(dòng)中已經(jīng)有所進(jìn)展。

09:05

And what my friends in Silicon Valley and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted. They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives, and they've got all the benefits to show from that, while Bill is leading a very different life. They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was when he talked about the benefits of work, and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.

而我在硅谷的朋友 在劍橋的朋友，他們就是Ted。 他們過著忙碌、 富有成效的生活， 并從中受益， 然而Bill卻過著完全不同的生活。 他們實(shí)際上都驗(yàn)證了伏爾泰的箴言 伏爾泰論述工作的益處， 歸功于，它將人類從三大罪惡中拯救。

09:29

["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]

"工作把人從三大罪惡——無聊，墮落，貧乏——中拯救出來"— — 伏爾泰]

09:30

So with these challenges, what do we do about them?

那么，面對(duì)這些挑戰(zhàn)，我們需要如何去做？

09:33

The economic playbook is surprisingly clear, surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially. The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two, so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine: Encourage entrepreneurship, double down on infrastructure, and make sure we're turning out people from our educational system with the appropriate skills.

經(jīng)濟(jì)的劇本是出奇地明確， 直截了當(dāng)，尤其是在短期內(nèi)。 機(jī)器人還不至于在一兩年內(nèi)攬下我們所有的工作， 所以經(jīng)典的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)劇本也可以發(fā)揮效用： 鼓勵(lì)創(chuàng)業(yè)精神， 翻倍的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)， 并確保我們正在提升我們自身， 通過教育制度培養(yǎng)相應(yīng)的技能。

09:56

But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy that's heavy on technology and light on labor, and we are, then we have to consider some more radical interventions, for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income. Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable, because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth. I did a little bit of research on this notion, and it might calm some folk down to know that the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman. And if you find yourself worried that something like a guaranteed income is going to stifle our drive to succeed and make us kind of complacent, you might be interested to know that social mobility, one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States, is now lower than it is in the northern European countries that have these very generous social safety nets. So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.

但在長期看來，如果我們正在進(jìn)入一個(gè) 重技術(shù)輕體力的經(jīng)濟(jì)體， 那么我們就必須要考慮 一些更激進(jìn)的干預(yù)措施， 例如，最低收入保障。 現(xiàn)在，這些可能會(huì)造成在坐各位的反感， 因?yàn)檫@種想法曾與極端左翼連在一起 他們采用非常激進(jìn)的手段，來重新分配財(cái)富。 我對(duì)此做了一些研究， 它可能會(huì)讓一些民間的反感趨于冷靜 最低收入保障的概念 曾經(jīng)被社會(huì)主義者們所擁護(hù) 弗里德里克·哈耶克、 理查德 · 尼克松和米爾頓 · 弗里德曼。 如果你發(fā)現(xiàn)自己正在擔(dān)心 諸如最低保障收入 正在扼殺我們成功的動(dòng)力 讓我們洋洋自得 你可能會(huì)有興趣知道，社會(huì)的流動(dòng)性， 這在美國，是讓我們引以為傲的方面 現(xiàn)在卻比不上北歐的國家 它們有著更為慷慨的社保網(wǎng)絡(luò)。 所以經(jīng)濟(jì)方面實(shí)際上相當(dāng)簡單。

11:00

The societal one is a lot more challenging. I don't know what the playbook is for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.

社會(huì)方面卻更具挑戰(zhàn)。 我不知道設(shè)計(jì)怎樣的社會(huì)劇本才能 讓Bill重新參與和介入社會(huì)生活

11:09

I do know that education is a huge part of it. I witnessed this firsthand. I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education, and what that education taught me is that the world is an interesting place and my job is to go explore it. The school stopped in third grade, so then I entered the public school system, and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag. With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer, but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of bore me into some submission with what was going on around me. We have to do better than this. We cannot keep turning out Bills.

我只知道教育是不可或缺的一部分。 對(duì)此我深有體會(huì)。 我在蒙特梭利接受了幾年的低齡教育， 這種教育讓我認(rèn)為 這個(gè)世界非常有趣 而我的工作就是要去探索它。 學(xué)校在三年級(jí)時(shí)，就停辦了， 然后我進(jìn)入公立學(xué)校系統(tǒng)， 我感覺就像被派到勞改營。 事后看來，現(xiàn)在我知道這種教育 是讓我成為一個(gè)職員或技工作準(zhǔn)備， 但與此同時(shí)我也覺得這種教育 讓我卷入到了無盡的厭煩之中。 我們必須做得比這更好。 我們不能把下一代繼續(xù)變成Bill

11:48

So we see some green shoots that things are getting better. We see technology deeply impacting education and engaging people, from our youngest learners up to our oldest ones. We see very prominent business voices telling us we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while. And we see very serious and sustained and data-driven efforts to understand how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.

我們已經(jīng)看到有些好轉(zhuǎn)的苗頭。 我們看到技術(shù)已經(jīng)深深地影響了教育 吸引各個(gè)層次的求知者，從新生一代 到我們這些老骨頭。 我們聽到非常顯著的來自商界的聲音 告訴我們要反思那些我們一度堅(jiān)持的事物。 我們看到非常嚴(yán)肅和持久的 數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)的努力 以了解如何去干預(yù)我們那些最不安的群體

12:12

So the green shoots are out there. I don't want to pretend for a minute that what we have is going to be enough. We're facing very tough challenges. To give just one example, there are about five million Americans who have been unemployed for at least six months. We're not going to fix things for them by sending them back to Montessori. And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world where we're going to have glittering technologies embedded in kind of a shabby society and supported by an economy that generates inequality instead of opportunity.

所以希望就在那里。 我連一分鐘的假裝都做不到 我們現(xiàn)在所擁有的真的是不夠。 我們現(xiàn)在面臨著非常嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。 僅舉一個(gè)例子，有大約 500 萬美國人 已經(jīng)失業(yè)至少六個(gè)月了。 我們沒法通過將他們送回 蒙特梭利的幼兒園來解決它 我最擔(dān)心的，是我們要?jiǎng)?chuàng)建的世界 雖有閃閃發(fā)光的技術(shù) 卻還是一套破舊的社會(huì)體制 由不公而非機(jī)會(huì) 所維持的經(jīng)濟(jì)

12:41

But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do. I think we're going to do something a lot better for one very straightforward reason: The facts are getting out there. The realities of this new machine age and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known. If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things like have our best economists and policymakers play "Jeopardy!" against Watson. We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip. And if we do enough of these kinds of things, the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different. And then we're off to the races, because I don't believe for a second that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.

但我并不認(rèn)為我們會(huì)維持現(xiàn)在的所作所為。 我認(rèn)為我們會(huì)做得更好 一個(gè)非常簡單的原因： 事實(shí)已經(jīng)呈現(xiàn)在眼前。 新機(jī)器時(shí)代已經(jīng)到來 經(jīng)濟(jì)的變革也更加廣為人知。 如果我們想要加快這一進(jìn)程，我們可以做的事情 比如讓我們最好的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和政策制定者 對(duì)人工智能程序發(fā)出"危險(xiǎn)!"警告。 我們可以通過自發(fā)的公路游行向國會(huì)傳達(dá)。 如果我們做足夠多的這類事情， 這種意識(shí)就會(huì)滲入社會(huì)，情況就會(huì)發(fā)生變化。 然后我們就出發(fā)去行動(dòng)， 哪怕只有一秒，我也不會(huì)相信 我們會(huì)忘記如何解決嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn) 或者我們已經(jīng)變得太冷漠、麻木甚至不敢嘗試。

13:23

I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths who were separated by an ocean and a century. Let me end it with words from politicians who were similarly distant.

我通過引用文豪的名言開始我的演講 他們來自一個(gè)世紀(jì)前海洋的另一端。 現(xiàn)在讓我用政治家的言論來結(jié)束演講 他們同樣地遙遠(yuǎn)。

13:32

Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949, and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses of the people in every land to the table of abundance, it can only be by the tireless improvement of all of our means of technical production."

溫斯頓 · 丘吉爾在1949年來到麻省理工學(xué)院 他說，“如果我們要帶領(lǐng)廣大人民群眾 走向繁榮富裕， 只能通過不懈的改進(jìn) 改進(jìn)一切技術(shù)生產(chǎn)手段?！?/p>

13:47

Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient. He said, "I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to give them the plain facts."

亞伯拉罕 · 林肯認(rèn)識(shí)到另一個(gè)方面。 他說，"我是一位對(duì)人民有堅(jiān)定信心的人。 如果給他們真相， 他們可以面對(duì)任何國家的危機(jī)。 最重要的是，給他們真正的事實(shí)。

14:00

So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear, and I have every confidence that we're going to use them to chart a good course into the challenging, abundant economy that we're creating.

所以樂觀的說，我想要留給你們的是 新機(jī)器時(shí)代的到來已經(jīng)是顯而易見的事實(shí)， 我有十足的信心，我們可以駕馭機(jī)器 來通過充滿挑戰(zhàn)的社會(huì)課程， 迎接我們正在創(chuàng)造的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮。

14:14

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

14:16

(Applause)

（掌聲）