“泡沫”減少的中國啤酒

“泡沫”減少的中國啤酒

在中國，每年盛夏總能見到中年男子露著肚皮，大口吃肉大口喝酒的場景。然而，中國這個最大的啤酒消費市場開始萎縮，自去年以來，中國啤酒市場連續(xù)二十年來的增長戛然而止。

測試中可能遇到的詞匯和知識：

casualty 事故

brewery 釀酒廠

sophistication 成熟

saturated 飽和

languishing 日益衰落

Chinese beer loses its froth（618words）

By Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai

This has been a headline year for China's beer market — but for the wrong reasons. Beer production has fallen for the first time in two decades,a casualty of changing drinking habits.Now Chinese beer is in the headlines again,as Anheuser-Busch InBev ponders one of the biggest brewery deals of all time,a takeover of SABMiller,at a time when both brewers have a leading position in the Chinese market.

Will China prove an obstacle to a potential deal,either because of its slowing economy or because of objections from competition regulators?

Like many consumer markets in China,beer has been hit by the moderating pace of economic growth,and the rising affluence and sophistication of Chinese consumers — only more so. Last year China's beer production by volume,at 49bn litres,fell nearly 3 per cent for the first time in 24 years,according to China's National Bureau of Statistics.

“Chinese beer per capita consumption has reached 34.2 litres,slightly over the world's per capita of 33 litres,” says the US Department of Agriculture in a recent report,which concludes that “the market for domestic mass-production beer is becoming saturated”.

“There isn't much growth in mass-market beers because it's a cheap beverage and as people's disposable income grows they are trying other options,like wine,whisky or craft beers,” says James Roy,retail analyst at China Market Research in Shanghai.

“Certain segments of the middle class are using wine increasingly not just for social occasions but for health purposes,especially women in their 30s and 40s who have a glass of wine each evening; it's in all the popular magazines that it has health benefits. And some consumers are shifting from beer to whisky. People are branching out and experimenting with new drinks,” he adds.

So mass market beers are languishing,with production volumes at Chinese brewers falling 6 per cent in the first half of this year,according to BNP Paribas. But the bank's China beer analyst,Charlie Chen,says “we see a strong trend of product upgrading”,pointing out that Budweiser,leader in the premium segment in China,posted double-digit volume growth in the same period.

“Premiumisation” is the key to future profits in this market,say analysts. China is more than twice the size of the world's second-largest beer market,the US,and is “expected to account for more than 30 per cent of industry volume growth in the next 10 years”,according a research note by Canaccord Genuity.

However,“the US beer market's profit pool is around seven times larger than China's,despite being less than half its size”,write Eddy Hargreaves and Alicia Forry of Canaccord Genuity,adding: “This gap will close significantly over time……[and]whichever way we look at it,achieving as strong a position as possible in China is likely to be a key priority for AInBev”.

China Resources Enterprise is understood to have told analysts recently that competition is assessed regionally by the regulator,and there is less regional overlap than might appear from the national market share figures. And a merged AB InBev/SABMiller could dispose of other smaller holdings in China,to bring its total market share down to 30 per cent,without touching the Snow stake,the Canaccord analysts argue.

Lawyers in China point out that even the 2008 restriction on InBev purchasing a Snow stake would not necessarily be a hurdle to an AB InBev/SABMiller deal,since regulators can easily waive it when considering any potential transaction — if they want to.

But brewers still face the small matter of the slowdown in the Chinese economy — not to mention China's growing taste for drinks other than beer. With additional reporting by Jackie Cai