囧研究：中國(guó)人發(fā)現(xiàn)石頭剪刀布致勝絕招！

如何在石頭剪刀布的游戲中取得勝利?這個(gè)問題長(zhǎng)久以來一直困擾著數(shù)學(xué)家和博弈論理論家，信不信由你。前人已經(jīng)就這個(gè)問題建立了一套理論，而中國(guó)浙江大學(xué)一位名叫王志堅(jiān)的研究員則通過一項(xiàng)真人實(shí)驗(yàn)對(duì)前人的理論進(jìn)行了十分有趣的拓展。

In the experiment, Zhijian noticed that winning players tended to stick with their winning strategy, while losers tended to switch to the next strategy in the sequence of rock-paper-scissors, following what he calls "persistent cyclic flows".

在實(shí)驗(yàn)過程中，王志堅(jiān)發(fā)現(xiàn)，在石頭剪刀布的游戲中，取勝的一方往往會(huì)堅(jiān)持自己的求勝策略，而失敗的一方則往往會(huì)在新一輪中變換自己的游戲策略，其中起作用的是一種“慣性循環(huán)”意識(shí)。

While the Nash Equilibrium should be the best strategy in real life, Zhijian found a decidedly differentpattern when he and some other researchers recruited 72 students to play the game. They divided the students into 12 groups of six players and had them each play 300 rounds of rock-paper-scissors against each other. Zhijian also added a payout in proportion to the number of victories.

人們往往認(rèn)為“納什均衡原理”是現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中玩石頭剪刀布的最佳策略，而王志堅(jiān)和自己的研究伙伴挑選了72位學(xué)生進(jìn)行試驗(yàn)，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)與納什均衡具有明顯差異的致勝模式。他們將這些學(xué)生分成12個(gè)組，每組6人，讓每組的組員一對(duì)一玩300回合的石頭剪刀布。王志堅(jiān)還根據(jù)游戲獲勝的幾率對(duì)學(xué)生們支付獎(jiǎng)金。

The pattern that Zhijian discovered - winners repeating their strategy and losers moving to the next strategy in the sequence - is called a 'conditional response' in game theory. The researchers have theorised that the response may be hard-wired into the brain, a question they intend to investigate with further experiments.

王志堅(jiān)發(fā)現(xiàn)的這個(gè)規(guī)律——重復(fù)自己游戲模式的人獲勝，而下一局中變換另一游戲模式的人失敗——在博弈論中被稱為“條件反應(yīng)”。研究者們作出設(shè)想，或許這種反應(yīng)模式是深植在人的大腦結(jié)構(gòu)中的，這個(gè)問題他們將進(jìn)一步展開實(shí)驗(yàn)進(jìn)行研究。